Posted on 10/21/2008 12:10:06 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
McCain Outperforming Bush in Ohio Bellwethers?
I continue to hear from my source on the ground in Ohio, who is seeing results for McCain that are surprisingly good. He puts it, "in a key bellweather section of Ohio, McCain continues to show internals that are exceeding the national pollsters’ results. This portends a potentially larger McCain victory in Ohio than Bush had in 2004.”
As for those national pollsters, note that Fox News/Rasmussen puts McCain up 2, NBC/Mason-Dixon puts McCain up 1 and Rasmussen had it a tie last week. My guy on the ground thinks this might mean that the internal polling is a leading indicator, and he's noting that if McCain does as well among the key demographics in neighboring Pennsylvania as he is in Ohio, then the Democrats ought to be sweating about that state.
That's far from a given, of course; Pennsylvania is a bluer state than Ohio. I don't know that McCain will win Pennsylvania, but it isn't like he hasn't been given enough material - "spread the wealth around", "no coal plants", Murtha alternately calling his constituents "racists" and "rednecks," the bitter small-town clinger comment, etc.
I can hear it now - "Jim, Jim, what about the Suffolk Poll showing McCain losing Ohio by 9?" Well, if the Ohio electorate on Nov. 4 really does turn out to be 54 percent women and 46 percent men, and 45 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, then that may very well be the result. But I would be curious about which debilitating virus is attacking those with Y chromosomes in that state. (Having said that, the 2004 exit poll put the gender split at 53-47 in favor of women.)
I wonder if he means Lake County?
Yes, McC is running ahead of Bush '04 in Lake.
If McCain outperforms Bush in Ohio, I can understand the campaign's emphasis on Pennsylvania. Kerry only carried PA by 3.5% in 2004.
Get good pics and an autograph!!
Actually, it was 2.5%.
Fingers Crossed
Even better!
This also shows, I think, that Rassmussen is weighting his state polls (at least Ohio, but probably FL, VA, and NC, too) based on new voter registrations, thereby oversampling Democrats, as he is nationally. His last Ohio poll showed a one point race, but Bush won by two points in 2004, and if Geraghty's source is correct, he is ahead of that pace.
now we know why Obama and Murtha are sweating buckets over Western PA. They are losing Western PA by a mile, I betcha, which means they are losing NE Ohio by a mile, the same counties Hillary tore Obama in by a mile. I see a pattern.
There’s so many BS polls floating around. But what do you expect when they’re sponsored by media outlets or universities?
I think McCain will win this solidly, something like 52-47 or even 52-46 in the popular vote, and with about 309 electoral votes. Not only do I expect McCain to hold Ohio and take Pennsylvania, I think he’ll take New Hampshire and Wisconsin as well. I expect him to lose New Mexico and perhaps Iowa, though maybe Iowa finds its ways back to the GOP too. If he runs strong in Ohio and Pennsylvania, then I don’t see him losing Virginia, and I certainly don’t see him losing North Carolina or Missouri.
McCain might end up showing much greater strength in the Upper Midwest than is being picked up on now. It’s not like Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan were blowout losses in 2004. Now we have the Democrat candidate insulting every gun owner and churchgoer in the Rust Belt and Upper Midwest. These were people who needed a reason to vote for Obama, not another reason to be leery of him.
Stay focused. Lots of House, Senate and gubernatorial races to impact.
Great.
Still need to be worried about CO, NM, MO, IA, VA especially.
But, an OH win would be a big help.
Dang...that’s the closest she’s been to me and I can’t go! Hubby has a dr appointment and I have training to be a poll worker.
good stuff!
It’s like tumblers in a lock.
One by one, states are dropping into their proper slots.
Today McCain’s in Pittsburgh PA. (Go figure!) Tomorrow there are three OH events and one NH event. Thursday so far there is one OH and one FL event scheduled. Word is that McCain is going to CO on Friday.
Cool! I didn't know President Bush was running. You got my vote "W"!!!
I still think that Todd & Sarah Palin making visits to Michigan could pull the state into McCain’s column according to friends and former neighbors in Michigan. I’m not sure about Wisconsin or Minnisota only because I don’t have friends or family there (in Wisconsin anymore).
Interesting, McCain is shooting for PA and NH. Picking up both gives McCain more than one way to achieve an Electoral victory.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.