I wonder if he means Lake County?
Yes, McC is running ahead of Bush '04 in Lake.
If McCain outperforms Bush in Ohio, I can understand the campaign's emphasis on Pennsylvania. Kerry only carried PA by 3.5% in 2004.
Get good pics and an autograph!!
There’s so many BS polls floating around. But what do you expect when they’re sponsored by media outlets or universities?
I think McCain will win this solidly, something like 52-47 or even 52-46 in the popular vote, and with about 309 electoral votes. Not only do I expect McCain to hold Ohio and take Pennsylvania, I think he’ll take New Hampshire and Wisconsin as well. I expect him to lose New Mexico and perhaps Iowa, though maybe Iowa finds its ways back to the GOP too. If he runs strong in Ohio and Pennsylvania, then I don’t see him losing Virginia, and I certainly don’t see him losing North Carolina or Missouri.
McCain might end up showing much greater strength in the Upper Midwest than is being picked up on now. It’s not like Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan were blowout losses in 2004. Now we have the Democrat candidate insulting every gun owner and churchgoer in the Rust Belt and Upper Midwest. These were people who needed a reason to vote for Obama, not another reason to be leery of him.
Great.
Still need to be worried about CO, NM, MO, IA, VA especially.
But, an OH win would be a big help.
Dang...that’s the closest she’s been to me and I can’t go! Hubby has a dr appointment and I have training to be a poll worker.
Cool! I didn't know President Bush was running. You got my vote "W"!!!
Well, I would think it would be since PA is barely blue and Ohio is actually red! Geeeez!
(These color choices need to go bacx to the old way! Take back our colors!)
ok why are the two polling methods SO different?
(yes I know ratings)
however it would seem the DBM would want some semblance of credibility.
Private and public poling should be tracking together.
In my Ohio neighborhood, McCain/Palin signs outnumber the competition by 20 to 1. Far more than the difference in 2004. Of course, capitalism is still popular in Hudson.
If DU is any indication they are. They're already building up the idea in their minds that we're going to steal PA with Diebold machines.
When the early results show McCain wins Pennsylvania, keeps Florida, and wins N. Carolina BIG, watch the air come out of the media cheerleaders baloons.
I lived in Ohio for a long time until recently. I have little doubt McCain will win Ohio. He is a better fit for people in Ohio than Bush ever was. I personally prefer Bush to McCain but can see why Ohio would like him. more.
Ob ama lost badly to Hillary in Ohio and there were a lot of Republican cross overs. This makes it very hard for him to win there without massive fraud— which is the secret to any possible success Obama would have.
I still think the unique dynamics of Penn and OH make them good states for McCain to win in two weeks.
The key counties in Ohio are the exurbs surrounding Cincinnati: Butler, Clermont and Warren.
I’m very much on the ground in these areas and can state unequivocally that the enthusiasm in Clermont and Butler is below 2004 while Warren is tracking about the same. [The number of volunteers for Clermont and Hamilton counties are definitely down . . . There is no enthusiasm for McCain . . . HOWEVER, there is enthusiasm for Palin. This coupled with a definite anti-Obama sentiment will help drive voters to the polls — it will be very close!]
Bush 04 had a much better ground game. The campaign offices were always jam-packed. You wanted to be there. I even stopped in some neighboring counties' BC04 offices if I finished my work day nearby.
McCain's campaign offices in Hamilton County (I don't have the same job as I did in 04, so I don't get to the surrounding counties as much) have been fairly underwhelming.
I was part of a massive voter reg plan in 04, but I saw no evidence of anyone trying one here this year. Not one call. Ever.
My job takes me further on the road now than it did in 04. It does seem that the one aspect in which McCain is better than Bush is yard-sign distribution. I see McCain-Palin signs at levels I would never expect to see in a lot of aging suburbs of the Three C's.
At the height of the bailout fiasco, I was driving across three counties in NEO and hit the roof at the completely idiotic decisions to flood rural heay-GOP counties with signs when they were rare as hen's teeth in Hamilton County. Thankfully, that's been fixed.
McCain's and the RNC's presence on TV and direct mail does seem underwhelming compared to 04 and Obama is absolutely crushing him in radio ads.
On the plus side, the liberal MoveOn MooreOns are not flooding the TV like they did in 04.
Obama's signs are mostly in white-liberal bastions or in African-American neighborhoods. In the white working-class neighborhoods in Cincinnati, they are almost nonexistent.
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell stated in the democratic primary that Obama wouldn’t win PA.
Pennsylvania overwhelmingly voted for Hillary over Obama. This was not too long after all the rev. Wright stuff too. That’s why I wish the good old rev. Wright would make another appearance before the election.
A lot of voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio are just like voters in West VA and KY. They’re not going to vote for Obama.