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Poll Line Graphs for Key States
Mindspring.com ^ | October 21,2008 | hk

Posted on 10/21/2008 10:50:03 AM PDT by HK Ball

This includes Florida (27), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Missouri (11) and Colorado (9) ... McCain now has 171 electoral votes pretty sure, needs 270 to win ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: pivotal; polls; states; trends

1 posted on 10/21/2008 10:50:04 AM PDT by HK Ball
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To: HK Ball

The one state that has surprised the heck out of me is Missouri, I would love to know what is going on there as it would seem to be a natural for McCain, yet Obama is performing well there.


2 posted on 10/21/2008 10:52:43 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: HK Ball

3 posted on 10/21/2008 10:58:57 AM PDT by Red Badger (My wallet is made out of depleted you-owe-mium........)
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To: HK Ball

Real Clear Politics shows a 2.7% difference right now for Missouri which is in the range of errors for polls. The last several that have come out are a virtual dead heat. McCain will carry Missouri.


4 posted on 10/21/2008 10:59:11 AM PDT by Moconservative
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To: Red Badger

5 posted on 10/21/2008 10:59:40 AM PDT by Red Badger (My wallet is made out of depleted you-owe-mium........)
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To: padre35

ACORN and St. Louis a dangerous combination, is my guess.


6 posted on 10/21/2008 11:00:01 AM PDT by 2001convSVT ("People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence")
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To: Moconservative

As long as he can overcome the Kansas City / St. Louis block of voters (lots of African American voters in addition to the traditional Democrat losers — yes these two groups overlap considerably) he will take Missouri. Outside of those two cities, I doubt there’s any real support for Obama.

And my wife’s family hails from Missouri — I don’t think I’ve ever seen them as fired up!


7 posted on 10/21/2008 11:02:38 AM PDT by rom (Keep Senator Government from Spreading YOUR Wealth! McCain/Palin '08!)
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To: HK Ball

Now, imagine each of those graph lines as having dotted lines on either side, say an average of 1.5 to 2 units away - to denote the “Margin of Error”. That would depict the true statistical relationship, given the inaccuracy of the polls.

And that’s why each of these is still win-able.


8 posted on 10/21/2008 11:04:47 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: rom

You are correct in your assessment of how McCain has to win here. It all comes down to turnout. Let’s hope the base is motivated to turnout.


9 posted on 10/21/2008 11:14:37 AM PDT by Moconservative
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To: rom

You are correct in your assessment of how McCain has to win here. It all comes down to turnout. Let’s hope the base is motivated to turnout.


10 posted on 10/21/2008 11:14:44 AM PDT by Moconservative
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To: rom

You are correct in your assessment of how McCain has to win here. It all comes down to turnout. Let’s hope the base is motivated to turnout.


11 posted on 10/21/2008 11:14:57 AM PDT by Moconservative
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To: padre35

Can you spell East Kansas City and St. Louis?


12 posted on 10/21/2008 11:15:15 AM PDT by ImpBill (Proud little "r" republican!)
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To: padre35

Remember, they elected a dead Democrat over a living Republican just a few years ago...


13 posted on 10/21/2008 11:34:33 AM PDT by Hurricane Andrew (History teaches that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap.)
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To: HK Ball
I don't like being overly optimistic but I honestly think that you can take these state polls and add +3 to McCain. That is +1 for the so called "Bradley effect" which, as much as Obama's people claim doesn't exist, is a legitimate phenomenon observed as recently as the democrat primary against Hillary and it may be worth well more than 1%. Also add 1% for the oversampling of democrats, these polls are still using a pre-convention, pre-Palin model that over samples democrats by a sizable margin, predicting low ethusiams in republican circles. Finally, 1% for the fact that McCain has always had a history of being a strong finisher and the undecideds will break toward him as being the "safe" choice, if they aren't sold on Obama by now, the next two weeks aren't going to make a difference.

Also, look at the graphs, all of the states but Florida which seems about the even for both candidates, and Missouri which seems to be trending slightly toward Obama (he's been campaigning there a lot over the last couple days) are trending significantly toward McCain.

14 posted on 10/21/2008 11:37:33 AM PDT by apillar
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To: bigbob

Yup..this is a statistical dead heat. The margins between the two candidates are within the error range. I would be worried if Obama was +25, but he is not.


15 posted on 10/21/2008 11:44:45 AM PDT by spetznaz (Nuclear-tipped Ballistic Missiles: The Ultimate Phallic Symbol)
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To: Red Badger

Let’s not kid ourselves, these polls show McCain behind but gaining, and I don’t like the Missouri lines going in the wrong directions.

IF McCain will jump all over the international crisis and spread the wealth remarks, and if he can move up nationally, this can improve.

A stronger market and a bit of Rev Wright might not be bad either.


16 posted on 10/21/2008 11:51:06 AM PDT by Williams (It's The Policies, Stupid.)
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To: Williams

If McCain would just let the people know how Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have created this Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac financial crisis that has shrunk my (AND EVERYBODY ELSE’S) 401(k) and caused nearly the entire worlds’ financial system to collapse, he’d WIN in a landslide. Rev Wright, Bill Ayers, Father Fleger, Tony Rezko and all the other characters are inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. People respond to POCKET BOOK ISSUES. Always have and always will. Put blame where it properly belongs on OBAMA and his democrap allies!...........................


17 posted on 10/21/2008 12:01:16 PM PDT by Red Badger (My wallet is made out of depleted you-owe-mium........)
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To: padre35

And here in Missouri Democrat Robbin’ Carnahan daughter of Mel Carnahan, the dead man Missouri elected a Senator is the Secretary of State.
You know the saying “It doesn’t matter who votes its who counts the votes.
I would feel much better about the fairness if Catherine Hanaway would have won SOS four years ago.


18 posted on 10/21/2008 12:40:33 PM PDT by Flathead Catfisherman
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