Posted on 10/21/2008 10:50:03 AM PDT by HK Ball
This includes Florida (27), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Missouri (11) and Colorado (9) ... McCain now has 171 electoral votes pretty sure, needs 270 to win ...
The one state that has surprised the heck out of me is Missouri, I would love to know what is going on there as it would seem to be a natural for McCain, yet Obama is performing well there.
Real Clear Politics shows a 2.7% difference right now for Missouri which is in the range of errors for polls. The last several that have come out are a virtual dead heat. McCain will carry Missouri.
ACORN and St. Louis a dangerous combination, is my guess.
As long as he can overcome the Kansas City / St. Louis block of voters (lots of African American voters in addition to the traditional Democrat losers — yes these two groups overlap considerably) he will take Missouri. Outside of those two cities, I doubt there’s any real support for Obama.
And my wife’s family hails from Missouri — I don’t think I’ve ever seen them as fired up!
Now, imagine each of those graph lines as having dotted lines on either side, say an average of 1.5 to 2 units away - to denote the “Margin of Error”. That would depict the true statistical relationship, given the inaccuracy of the polls.
And that’s why each of these is still win-able.
You are correct in your assessment of how McCain has to win here. It all comes down to turnout. Let’s hope the base is motivated to turnout.
You are correct in your assessment of how McCain has to win here. It all comes down to turnout. Let’s hope the base is motivated to turnout.
You are correct in your assessment of how McCain has to win here. It all comes down to turnout. Let’s hope the base is motivated to turnout.
Can you spell East Kansas City and St. Louis?
Remember, they elected a dead Democrat over a living Republican just a few years ago...
Also, look at the graphs, all of the states but Florida which seems about the even for both candidates, and Missouri which seems to be trending slightly toward Obama (he's been campaigning there a lot over the last couple days) are trending significantly toward McCain.
Yup..this is a statistical dead heat. The margins between the two candidates are within the error range. I would be worried if Obama was +25, but he is not.
Let’s not kid ourselves, these polls show McCain behind but gaining, and I don’t like the Missouri lines going in the wrong directions.
IF McCain will jump all over the international crisis and spread the wealth remarks, and if he can move up nationally, this can improve.
A stronger market and a bit of Rev Wright might not be bad either.
If McCain would just let the people know how Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have created this Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac financial crisis that has shrunk my (AND EVERYBODY ELSE’S) 401(k) and caused nearly the entire worlds’ financial system to collapse, he’d WIN in a landslide. Rev Wright, Bill Ayers, Father Fleger, Tony Rezko and all the other characters are inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. People respond to POCKET BOOK ISSUES. Always have and always will. Put blame where it properly belongs on OBAMA and his democrap allies!...........................
And here in Missouri Democrat Robbin’ Carnahan daughter of Mel Carnahan, the dead man Missouri elected a Senator is the Secretary of State.
You know the saying “It doesn’t matter who votes its who counts the votes.
I would feel much better about the fairness if Catherine Hanaway would have won SOS four years ago.
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