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This is a fantastic essay that explains why polls inflate Obama's support and also exposes the campaign to fool the American people into thinking an Obama victory is inevitable.

IMO, barring a major surprise the last two weeks of the campaign, McCain is going to win this thing and the aftermath will be ugly.

1 posted on 10/21/2008 6:55:08 AM PDT by bailmeout
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To: bailmeout

Wow!


2 posted on 10/21/2008 7:01:48 AM PDT by PajamaTruthMafia
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To: bailmeout

Question is, can the MSM be held liable for instigating the coming riots?

Nope.

However...we could point the mob to the MSM buildings and help direct the hate and anger at the apropiate people. Which wouldn’t really be instigating on our part...more like directing traffic.

Maybe Rush should move into Operation Directing Traffic, post election!


3 posted on 10/21/2008 7:01:57 AM PDT by woollyone ("When the tide is low, even a shrimp has its own puddle." - Vance Havner)
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To: bailmeout
McCain is going to win this thing and the aftermath will be ugly.

Yes...and yes.

4 posted on 10/21/2008 7:03:44 AM PDT by Bahbah (Typical white person-Snow white)
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To: bailmeout

buy your ammunition now.


5 posted on 10/21/2008 7:07:12 AM PDT by bestintxas (It's great in Texas)
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To: bailmeout
McCain is going to win this thing and the aftermath will be ugly.

Not near as ugly, for the country, as a McCain loss would be.

6 posted on 10/21/2008 7:11:00 AM PDT by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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To: bailmeout
Admittedly a small sample, but I have two Democrat friends who intend to vote Republican for the first time in their lives. While discussing this, I asked if they've told that to their Democrat friends. Both admitted “No”, they had not revealed their position. In fact, neither had admitted it to the other even though both know each other!

The bigger question is how many other Democrats are doing the same thing? To whatever extent this is true on a national scale, the polls are biased towards Obama. Given that some Democrats won't even disclose their feelings to friends, they could be in for a shock in Nov. Because of this bias, we will start hearing the same “Bush-stole-the-election” BS we heard after the last Presidential election. Since the Left has a tendency to burn things when they don't get their own way, if McCain wins, ACORN et al are going to be extremely PO’ed. I'd expect some places to go up in smoke.

I hope I'm wrong...

7 posted on 10/21/2008 7:11:11 AM PDT by econjack (Some people are as dumb as soup.)
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To: bailmeout

If McCain wins, I’ll be making about a half dozen suicide prevention calls. :-)


8 posted on 10/21/2008 7:11:46 AM PDT by Thrownatbirth (.....Iraq Invasion fan since '91.)
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To: bailmeout
The money quote:

I submit that this assumption is a catastrophic blunder. To the extent that there is any conformist behavior being exhibited by McCain supporters and undecided voters, it is much more likely to be normative conformity. In other words, people who are confronted with apparent overwhelming support for Obama may indeed announce that they too support Obama, but do so only in order to avoid ostracism or accusations of racism. Inside, however, they have not changed their minds. On November 4, they will go into that voting booth, and in total privacy and anonymity, they are free to vote for whomever they want, without fear of social condemnation for doing so. And in such a setting, normative conformity disintegrates, because there is no "norm" to conform to when your vote is anonymous.

9 posted on 10/21/2008 7:12:00 AM PDT by PajamaTruthMafia
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To: bailmeout

There’s another problem for Obama with the inflated polls. It energizes wavering Republican voters.

I voted early a few days ago. I had planned to vote for Bob Barr, but from the polls I’d seen it looked like Obama had a shot at carrying North Carolina. I decided I couldn’t chance helping him get NC’s electoral votes, so I held my nose and voted for McCain.


16 posted on 10/21/2008 8:08:09 AM PDT by murdoog (http://babydoc3.livejournal.com)
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To: bailmeout

Fascinating! Thanks for sharing.


18 posted on 10/21/2008 8:14:14 AM PDT by Jim Hill
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To: bailmeout

“And how do we find out the public’s mood concerning this or that incident? Why, the media tells us, that’s how.”....

And that’s exactly why Obama will lose.....Americans will give the media the middle finger in the voting booth.....


19 posted on 10/21/2008 8:17:58 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: bailmeout
Very interesting clarification of what is really happening with the Bradley Effect.

I can personally testify to the fact that I tend to pull my punches a bit if I sense that a statement I make may be perceived as racist, ------whether it is or not.

And there are lots of paranois people out there who fear to give their opinion.

---And all of this rolls back into the Rahn Emanuel Strategy: Dishearten and discourage your opponent at every opportunity. If such opportunities are not there, create them.

20 posted on 10/21/2008 8:25:34 AM PDT by cookcounty (Sarah and Todd Palin : They're more like us than we are.)
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To: bailmeout
Until very recently, elections were decided by real-world facts -- but not anymore.

You think so, do you, Mr. Zomb? I don't. Ever heard any of these?
"Tippecanoe and Tyler, too"?
"He kept us out of war"?
The "bloody shirt"?
"Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion"?
"Ma, Ma, Where's my Pa?"
"And my favorite, Carter's "A Leader, for a change."
23 posted on 10/21/2008 9:03:40 AM PDT by flowerplough (Obama, Oct. 7 debate: " You know, a lot of you remember the tragedy of 9/11 ...")
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To: bailmeout

I believe that some time ago “those in charge” decided the only way to elect an empty suit like nObama was through massive voter fraud.

A self-fulfilling prophecy.

I pray McCain wins by a margin large enough to discourage any recounts, challenges, etc.


25 posted on 10/21/2008 9:08:44 AM PDT by upchuck (Law of Logical Argument: Anything's possible if you don't know what you're talking about. => nObama))
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To: bailmeout

I found this piece to be quite fascinating. The arcane historical references to “Clever Hans,” etc. were fun.


27 posted on 10/21/2008 10:09:24 AM PDT by karnage
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To: bailmeout
The only thing I disagree with this easy is that it, I believe, overlooks the emotional — non rational — appeal of Obama. People may know better than to vote for Obama but they'll do it anyway, and it is NOT about conforming in the sense of the two ways mentioned in this essay. The essay assumes that people are rational and that rationality wins out in the privacy of the voting booth. I submit that emotions are the easiest and first things, therefore, they inform the first choice for voters. It is hard to reason, and once we reason it is easy to doubt and go against our reasoning. For our efforts, we are never sure with reason's outcomes. Emotions, on the other hand, feel close, natural and reflect more about who we are, our very personal choice — the “politics is personal” POV. Mind you, we have been trained to feel and media does a a lot of this training, so you can question how “personal” any of it really is. But to the average voter it feels personal, even though their feeling and opinions have been shaped.

Bottom line: people are irrational and do things even thought they may know better. Examples everywhere from Plato's Republic to smoking cigarettes.

28 posted on 10/21/2008 10:10:07 AM PDT by Blind Eye Jones
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To: bailmeout
McCain is going to win this thing and the aftermath will be ugly.

Not nearly so ugly as if The One prevails.

32 posted on 10/21/2008 2:25:22 PM PDT by El Gato ("The Second Amendment is the RESET button of the United States Constitution." -- Doug McKay)
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To: bailmeout

A couple problems with this:

- One of the major polling companies, SurveyUSA, does not human pollsters, it is completely automated so as to eliminate any pollster bias. In the 2004 elections SurveyUSA was the most accurate.

If pollster bias was driving the mainstream polls in favor of Obama, we would expect to see McCain do much better in the SurveyUSA poll. Instead, the SurveyUSA polls have been strong for Obama

-It’s true that in certain social circles(Liberal Elites in San Fran and the like), supporting McCain would be social suicide. But the same would hold true in very conservative communitiesin reverse- particularly if it is a religious social circle- if you belong to a Christian church which belives in the value of life and marriage, you probably wouldn’t want people to know it if you were supporting Obama.


36 posted on 10/21/2008 4:28:07 PM PDT by NatsFan
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To: bailmeout

McCain has always been an underdog; it’s always been the last 2-3 weeks he comes storming ahead. That’s what we’re seeing now.


37 posted on 10/25/2008 7:41:52 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: bailmeout
In 2008 there is no silent majority: there is the silenced majority. The unpolled majority. The media is so pro-Obama that the views and the concerns of McCain supporters are for the most part ignored or, at best, mocked.
38 posted on 10/25/2008 7:43:02 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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