Folks, this Presidential race is over

Various ^ | 10/21/08 | Impeached Rapist

[impeachedrapist]

Obama's numbers in OH stink, and PA isn't much better. He's hurting in FL. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. And McCain/Palin are just now employing their ad blitz. Life is good, and barring a major October/November surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.

But we still have plenty of work to do. There are a bunch of vulnerable freshmen Dem representatives in the House. The GOP has about 20 realistic pick-up opportunities. See my list below:

AL-05
AZ-05
CA-11
GA-08
IL-14
KS-02
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NH-02
NY-20
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
PA-11
TX-22
TX-23
WI-08
And my personal favorite! PA-12 (tough, but doable thanks to Murtha the Marine smearing racist)

Details on these races (website links, voting percentages, fundraising numbers, etc.) are here spread throughout this thread.

The current count is Dems 233, GOP 202. The Pubbies unfortunately do have to defend a lot of seats due to retirement. To retake the House they'd need to basically run the table on defending those seats and win about 16 of those above pick-up opportunities. Possible, but not likely. However, a solid McCain/Palin win in this anti-incumbent environment could provide enough of a push. And just cutting into the Dems' current 31-seat lead, after months of them gloating, will be very demoralizing.

If you've been thinking about donating your time and/or money, now's the time.

[andy58-in-nh]

There you go again, telling everyone that McCain is going to win when we've all just gotten comfortable with resignation and defeat, and pulling the blankets over our heads.

Face it: we're all exhausted, worn down by months of being mercilessly hammered by Mainstream Media messages of the Inevitable Ascension of Obama I, the Most Merciful. All those awful poll numbers and hagiographic stories and halo-enhanced images and pictures of crowds of zillions stretching out into infinity (amazing what a fish-eye lens can do, eh?).

Just yesterday I found that every MSM web site was flush with stories of how confident the Obama camp was and how awful things are going for McCain, while serving up fresh helpings of positive spin for the former and negative for the latter. How can we compete with a public relations campaign masquerading as "news"?

It's funny, though. Quietly, polls have been creeping back toward McCain. And these are polls that have been heavily weighted toward Democrats in the expectation of a massive wave of excited new liberal voters and a depressed turnout of tired, worn-out, unenthusiastic Republicans.

And yet.... the crowds for Sarah Palin have been huge. McCain is fighting like he has never before. The Republican base is energized. And the media, which acting as the communications arm of the Obama campaign has tried to manage expectations, are staring to get a little... nervous.

There is good reason for them to be. KEEP FIGHTING!!!!

[impeachedrapist]

As I was driving in I heard that McCain has conceded Wisconsin and about to pull back from Colorado.

ROTFL!! Okay, sure. That Colorado rumor has been publicly put to bed. Remember, Palin did three events in CO yesterday. Not a good use of resources on a state you've supposedly given up on. And the latest rumor I've heard is that Obama might give up on WI (I'm having trouble buying that one, though.)

[Cedric]

1. Rasmussen is obviously buying into the illusory “youth/first time” voters myth.

2. OTOH thanks to the Palin pick and other factors we now have “broken glass” Republicans again.

3. Even in the ‘06 wipe-out the turnout spread was only 3-4%. It won't be as wide this time.

[fortheDeclaration]

I haven’t seen any polls on the Landrieu race,,have you?

Last poll I saw was that she was only ahead by 5pts.

A strong McCain/Palin turnout could finish her off.

[impeachedrapist]

I agree, the Senate's not looking good. I think the House pick-ups can increase significantly with a healthy McCain/Palin win (which of course remains to be seen).

I disagree on your expected turnout percentages. I expect turnout to be within a single point either way. Which isn't enough to pull the Obamessiah across the finish line.

[Hoodlum91]

“Oh??? Do you? So we’ve moved from NO McCain ads in northern VA to not enough McCain ads in northern VA. Which shows you to be wrong on both counts (campaigns don’t waste resources on states they’ve written off in close elections). Thank you very much for your assistance.”

There has been no change in the number - and the rather pathetic ads that are running - in months. And yet McCain’s numbers fall in VA. There have be NO TV ads since early September. Obama has ads during Hannity and Rush. I have heard ONE McCain ad since 6:30 this morning.
He’s not spending money in DC/No.VA and has written it off. You’re right, they AREN’T wasting any resources here because it’s been written off.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

[Loyolas Mattman]

Hee hee. You got me.

I don’t love the guy, probably never will, but this is it. McCain is the candidate, time to rally ‘round.

It looks like they are at least going to revisit going after Rev. Wright. Then they’d really have Obama fighting on multiple fronts. Finally, we’d be on offense!

I forgot, I was going to ping you after the 3rd debate and congratulate you on your guy’s performance...

[impeachedrapist]

What's your personal observation in NH? Right now I'd give McCain at least a 50/50 shot to carry your state. Bush won there in 2000, but lost in 2004 (mostly, in my view, because Kerry's mechanism in MA moved across the border and set up shop there).

[EdReform]

Amen!

[impeachedrapist]

There have be NO TV ads since early September.

Again, that's false. I've seen quite a few, especially this past week. I voted in VA-11 yesterday, so you can quit blowing smoke. You're welcome to be pessimistic all you like, but I'm gonna call you out every time when you post false crap.

I'll remind everyone that the campaign had an event in Prince William county just a few days ago. They have not in any way, shape or form given up on Virginia!

[Your Nightmare]

Obama's numbers in OH stink, and PA isn't much better. He's hurting in FL. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. And McCain/Palin are just now employing their ad blitz. Life is good, and barring a major October/November surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.

What are you basing your enthusiasm on? Here are the RealClearPolitics averages for the states you mentioned:

OH	Obama +2.8 (toss up)
PA	Obama +11.0 (solid Obama)
FL	Obama +2.0 (toss up)
NH	Obama +9.4 (solid Obama)
WI	Obama +11.4 (solid Obama)
MN	Obama +9.6 (solid Obama)
IA	Obama +11.8 (solid Obama)
CO	Obama +5.5 (leaning Obama)
VA	Obama +8.0 (leaning Obama)
MI	Obama +11.8 (solid Obama)

I agree that Florida and Ohio are tighter than what's shown here, but Pennsylvania still appears to be solid for Obama and there doesn't appear to be significant enough movement in the other states to turn them.

Here's Karl Rove's map from a few days ago:

Even if you flip FL to McCain and give McCain all toss-ups (including Ohio), he's still losing 286-252.

[sarasota]

Who is going to watch 30 minutes of Obama? It will seem like a Hollywood production of the West Wing, but far too long, far too self-serving. I give him an F.

[impeachedrapist]

Sorry to burst YOUR bubble.

Obama, McCain Saturating Va. With TV Ads (10/4)

What else can I prove you wrong on?

[Hoodlum91]

I have not seen a single one. No false crap - reality. They have given up on No.VA, which is the same mistake the GOP made with Allen and Kilgore. I got called all sorts of names for saying that both Allen and Kilgore were going to lose because they decided to write off the biggest voting block in the state and McCain is doing the same.

Until the GOP learns they needs to campaign in ALL areas and make inroads in the huge democratic strongholds, VA will remain in Dem hands.

[Cheryllynn]

Go Michigan!! LOL I’m not giving up on us!

[Hoodlum91]

I’d actually have to see them.

Sicne I haven’t seen a single McCain ad in easily 6 weeks, I stand by my statement.

[CommerceComet]

getting support from many who supported her GOP rival Jim Ryun.

I'm in that group. I'm voting for Lynn Jenkins only because she is not Nancy Boyda but she can count on my vote this election. Of course, I'd rather have our congressional seat be vacant than put that mean-spirited, whiny Nancy Boyda back in.

[Cedric]

You got me.

Or in parlance which I'm sure is more to your liking, I pinned ya with a fireman's carry into a double arm bar!

[andy58-in-nh]

The latest poll (yesterday) had Obama up by seven points, but I cannot believe that's anywhere near close. I wouldn't be surprised to find a 6-7% Dem bias in the numbers, and it was also conducted over the weekend, and by now we all know what that means.

John McCain is going to be here tomorrow (at St. Anselm's College in Goffstown, outside of Manchester). I'm going to be there with my family, and I'll let you know how it goes.

[impeachedrapist]

I'm familiar with the RCP averages. They're interesting, if unrealistic. I'm not sure that map could be any more optimistic for Obama if we tried. :-)

What are you basing your enthusiasm on?

• Where the two campaigns are campaigning
• Baseline voting habits (by state) established during recent Presidential elections
• Campaign, RNC and 527 money allocated for advertising (and, more importantly, where)
• Turnout percentages (by party) for the 2004 and 2006 elections
• How the Democrats are reacting (constantly blaming Obama's pending loss on racism)
• Public and private word from folks plugged into GOP operations as to who is moving staff and resources where.
• Conservative excitement at the Palin selection (new) and anger at the media's blatant promotion of the Democrat (old)