[impeachedrapist]

I'm familiar with the RCP averages. They're interesting, if unrealistic. I'm not sure that map could be any more optimistic for Obama if we tried. :-)

What are you basing your enthusiasm on?

• Where the two campaigns are campaigning
• Baseline voting habits (by state) established during recent Presidential elections
• Campaign, RNC and 527 money allocated for advertising (and, more importantly, where)
• Turnout percentages (by party) for the 2004 and 2006 elections
• How the Democrats are reacting (constantly blaming Obama's pending loss on racism)
• Public and private word from folks plugged into GOP operations as to who is moving staff and resources where.
• Conservative excitement at the Palin selection (new) and anger at the media's blatant promotion of the Democrat (old)

[Your Nightmare]

I'm not sure that map could be any more optimistic for Obama if we tried.

Yeah, Karl Rove's been in the tank for Obama for quite a while.

Where the two campaigns are campaigning

They're both campaigning in states McCain should have locked up a long time ago.

Baseline voting habits (by state) established during recent Presidential elections

Don't you get a sense that this election is different than recent elections?

Campaign, RNC and 527 money allocated for advertising (and, more importantly, where)

Obama raised $150 million last month. He can outspend them all probably 2 to 1. And that doesn't count the DNC and pro-Obama 527s.

Turnout percentages (by party) for the 2004 and 2006 elections

You mean the 2004 and 2006 elections that went increasingly to Democrats?

How the Democrats are reacting (constantly blaming Obama's pending loss on racism)

I'm not sure how this affects the actual vote.

Public and private word from folks plugged into GOP operations as to who is moving staff and resources where.

You mean like McCain pulling out of Michigan to focus on states he absolutely has to win to avoid a landslide? Maybe you could be more specific.

Conservative excitement at the Palin selection (new) and anger at the media's blatant promotion of the Democrat (old)

Yeah, Obama lost a lot of conservative votes there...