[Your Nightmare]

Obama's numbers in OH stink, and PA isn't much better. He's hurting in FL. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. And McCain/Palin are just now employing their ad blitz. Life is good, and barring a major October/November surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.

What are you basing your enthusiasm on? Here are the RealClearPolitics averages for the states you mentioned:

OH	Obama +2.8 (toss up)
PA	Obama +11.0 (solid Obama)
FL	Obama +2.0 (toss up)
NH	Obama +9.4 (solid Obama)
WI	Obama +11.4 (solid Obama)
MN	Obama +9.6 (solid Obama)
IA	Obama +11.8 (solid Obama)
CO	Obama +5.5 (leaning Obama)
VA	Obama +8.0 (leaning Obama)
MI	Obama +11.8 (solid Obama)

I agree that Florida and Ohio are tighter than what's shown here, but Pennsylvania still appears to be solid for Obama and there doesn't appear to be significant enough movement in the other states to turn them.

Here's Karl Rove's map from a few days ago:

Even if you flip FL to McCain and give McCain all toss-ups (including Ohio), he's still losing 286-252.

[impeachedrapist]

I'm familiar with the RCP averages. They're interesting, if unrealistic. I'm not sure that map could be any more optimistic for Obama if we tried. :-)

What are you basing your enthusiasm on?

• Where the two campaigns are campaigning
• Baseline voting habits (by state) established during recent Presidential elections
• Campaign, RNC and 527 money allocated for advertising (and, more importantly, where)
• Turnout percentages (by party) for the 2004 and 2006 elections
• How the Democrats are reacting (constantly blaming Obama's pending loss on racism)
• Public and private word from folks plugged into GOP operations as to who is moving staff and resources where.
• Conservative excitement at the Palin selection (new) and anger at the media's blatant promotion of the Democrat (old)

[Yaelle]

Is this Karl Rove map online somewhere?

I sit here with the RealClear Politics Create Your Own map and play. Adding something from the Rove map just gave me another tied outcome. If we did lose both PA and VA, if we somehow won MN (losing by the lowest %) we could pull off another tie situation 276 O 262 Mc. However, doesn't that just go to Pelosi to decide?

[WOSG]

Polls are trending McCain though, so add 2-4 pts.

[grey_whiskers]

Real Clear Politics includes in its averages such gems as Quinnipac and ABC.

These oversample Dems by up to 12 points.

And if Obama has an 8 point lead after being spotted a 12-point advantage of his own party...?

Not a landslide for him.

Cheers!