Posted on 10/17/2008 4:47:14 PM PDT by Maelstorm
IS John McCain starting to stage a comeback? Perhaps, according to new poll numbers from Gallup, the respected polling organisation.
McCain is now within two percentage points of Barack Obama in one Gallup poll, trailing by just 49-47%.
He trails by wider margins in other Gallup polls. But even there, he gained in recent days leading up to Wednesday night’s third and final presidential debate.
Gallup is breaking its polls into three categories as the campaign enters its final weeks: one of registered voters, one of likely voters that expects higher turnout from young people and others, and one of likely voters based on traditional turnout.
In its daily polling of registered voters, Gallup has found Obama leading by 49-43%. It was the first time Obama slipped below the 50% threshold in 12 days, and his six-point lead was the narrowest in more than two weeks.
Gallup’s survey of likely voters, including expected higher turnouts from young people and minorities, showed Obama leading by 51-45% — a one-point drop for Obama and one-point gain for McCain.
That expanded pool covers about two-thirds of the voting population.
Finally, in the smaller and more traditional pool of likely voters, Gallup found Obama leading McCain by 49-47%. Obama had led by as much as 51-44 just four days before.
“This has generally shown a closer contest,” said Gallup editor Frank Newport.
(Excerpt) Read more at irishexaminer.com ...
I’m starting to understand all the panic in Camp Obama that I’ve been seeing here in the various articles today.
Hence the emphasis on early voting
I will be voting Monday here in Florida
it’s a good thing there’s a free press in the rest of the world
Does anyone have the numbers of how much Obama overpolled in the primaries? I believe he NEVER performed better than the polls predicted.
No... it's Obama sinking.
Where are the post debate poll numbers?? Did I miss them? Or did they go MIA?
Spread the Wealth or Spread the Socialism does not sell!
They have Registered voters and Likely voters, so I think the pollsters need to add a poll for fraudulent voters.
It’s one way at least the media can keep BO’s poll numbers up!
More importantly, will the Red Sox win the pennant in Florida?
I am sure someone can pull them up. One thing I have always reminded my freinds who are panicked over the election. Obama did poorly in those “swing states”. Hillary crushed him in Pa., OH, Va, Fl, MO, even coloroado which obama won was a caucus state. For obama to win he will need all those voters who went for him in the primaries and a huge amount of the hillary supporters which I dont think he will get!
May the Sox and Republicans do as well as they did in 2004!
Gallup has two polls. The traditional one uses past voting records and the enthusiasm questions to determine who is and who is not going to vote.
The other poll just asks people if they are going to vote. The problem with just asking is nearly all persons asked say they are going to vote. But we know that in all previous elections somewhere between 50 percent and 80 percent of eligible voters vote. So the one that just asks has to be wrong. It greatly favors Obama. You have to ask yourself why would Gallup release a poll that favors Obama and that they know is wrong.
On the other hand the enthusiasm question does not consider that for the first time in our history lots of conservatives are going to vote for McCain, not because they are enthused about McCain but because they fear Obama. I have not seen any poll that asks if voters are voting for a candidate or are voting to keep the other candidate out of office.
If you canvas even a few people you will find a significant number that will tell you they are not too hot on McCain but really fear Obama. The polls list these people as non voters.
For that reason I think the polls are way off. Look for the pollsters to discover... after the election that lots of McCain voters were in effect voting against Obama. That is why they are saying that only 29 percent of this years voters will be Republicans while between 39 and 41 percent will be Democrats.
That has not happened. Even in 2006 it was 38 democrats 35 Republicans.
Note that evem using the 39 to 29 turn out numbers McCain is only behind by 2 to 4 points. The media may be in for a big surprise.
Acorn and Joe the Plumber with Sarah as the Closer
Obama is out of bullets.
I believe that there was 12 point over poll in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary this year.
Similar results were seen in other battleground states.
I believe that McCain would win in a landslide except for all the fraud.
Rasmussen Reports also shows that Obama has slipped recently, with his lead now at 50% to 46%.
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