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Gallup has two polls. The traditional one uses past voting records and the enthusiasm questions to determine who is and who is not going to vote.

The other poll just asks people if they are going to vote. The problem with just asking is nearly all persons asked say they are going to vote. But we know that in all previous elections somewhere between 50 percent and 80 percent of eligible voters vote. So the one that just asks has to be wrong. It greatly favors Obama. You have to ask yourself why would Gallup release a poll that favors Obama and that they know is wrong.

On the other hand the enthusiasm question does not consider that for the first time in our history lots of conservatives are going to vote for McCain, not because they are enthused about McCain but because they fear Obama. I have not seen any poll that asks if voters are voting for a candidate or are voting to keep the other candidate out of office.

If you canvas even a few people you will find a significant number that will tell you they are not too hot on McCain but really fear Obama. The polls list these people as non voters.

For that reason I think the polls are way off. Look for the pollsters to discover... after the election that lots of McCain voters were in effect voting against Obama. That is why they are saying that only 29 percent of this years voters will be Republicans while between 39 and 41 percent will be Democrats.

That has not happened. Even in 2006 it was 38 democrats 35 Republicans.

Note that evem using the 39 to 29 turn out numbers McCain is only behind by 2 to 4 points. The media may be in for a big surprise.