Posted on 10/14/2008 5:09:38 AM PDT by tomymind
Barack Obama has erased traditional Republican advantages in four key bellwether counties that President George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey. Each county is critical to the outcome in the battleground state where it is located.
In Reno, Nevada's Washoe County, Obama leads McCain by a 46-45 percent margin, with six percent undecided. Obama posts a wider 50-44 percent lead with five percent undecided in Raleigh, North Carolina's Wake County, and another 6-point lead in Hillsborough County, Fla., where Tampa is located. There, he edges McCain 47-41 percent, with 11 percent undecided.
Among the four counties tested, McCain leads in only one: Jefferson County, Colo., a populous Denver suburb. McCain is ahead there by a margin of 45-43 percent, with eight percent undecided.
At first glance, these Politico/InsiderAdvantage numbers might not look so troubling for McCain, who trailed Obama by 10 points in an ABC/Washington Post national survey, released Monday.
But these four counties are crucial battlegrounds in four of the most competitive states in the presidential race. In recent years, the Republican path to the White House has run through these areas.
In 2004, President Bush won Washoe County, Nevada's second-most populous county, by a four-point margin over Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry. This year, when Obama is expected to run up a big vote lead in Las Vegas' Clark County, McCain is unlikely to be able to afford a loss in Washoe.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
i totally agree. i am from southwestern PA. i grew up in a union dem blue collar family. my father is now deceased, but i assure you he would NEVER vote for obama [nor would he EVER vote for a republican], and there are plenty like him. i have heard myriad stories from friends who have relatives who have never voted for a republican in their lives but who plan to vote for mccain over Obama. those who wish to downplay the Bradley effect are in for an awakening. will it be enough to overcome the fraud? I hope so, but there are not guarantees.
ACTUALLY, the majority who are decrying the gloom and doom on FR,are very cognizant that it’s not likely to be a 49 state rout. we know this is a razor thin race just like the last two elections, which is why depression of the vote is so dangerous, and why incessant gloom and doom, the sky is falling BS, is intolerable.
“..you can go on thinking there isn’t any organized effort on FR to depress conservatives...”
If you believe there is, how many Freepers do you think it will keep from voting McCain who otherwise are planning to do so? And if it does keep a few home, is it enough to swing the election or even a single state? No.
It will have no electoral effect. It does, however, make you uncomfortable, so instead of simply avoiding the polling threads, you want to “shame” other Freepers into not posting them. Stifling dissent is what liberals do.
so again, i ask you, what PURPOSE does the gloom and doom discussion serve? what is it’s objective? the woe is me, all is lost BS, what is that doing for you?
“...why incessant gloom and doom, the sky is falling BS, is intolerable.”
Please find a post where I’ve ever said that all is lost. My “crime” here is defending the polls. For that I’m called a troll several times a week, usually behind my back. Lovely.
did i say that people should not post the actual polls? no. i did not. i said the moaners who are wringing their hands, saying all is lost, abandon hope, should be counteracted by actual analysis of those polls.
i haven’t called you a troll. i do question people who go from thread to thread moaning that all is lost. if you haven’t done that then i am not talking about you. and those moaners with late 2008 sign up dates are ALWAYS going to be suspect to those of us with long experience on FR.
i would think with all of your self-described toughness and maturity you wouldn't let this kind of thing bother you. you know you aren't a troll, and all you are doing is thoughtfully discussing the polls, then shrug off the troll appellation. but don't deny there are trolls here, because it simply is not true.
Exactly. We know the polls are showing Obama in the lead - anywhere from 2% to 10%, depending on which polls you look at.
Polls have been dead wrong in the past. I'm not making a prediction as to who is going to win. I don't have a crystal ball. If I polled all of the people around me, McCain would have a 98% lead. Polls are not accurate nor are they an election.
The only poll that counts is the one held three weeks from now. Anybody who is declaring the election "over" needs to look at a calendar.
In the meantime, I view anybody predicting doom and gloom as someone who is trying to demoralize the electorate and suppress the GOP vote.
Nixon actually was beating Humphrey most of that year until the last month or so. Humphrey might have temporarily led in the week before the election, but Nixon finally won the vote by about .7 or .8% on Election Day. One of the closest elections in American history besides the 1960 results.
“...actual analysis of those polls.”
I’m not an expert, but I have extensive graduate level training in statistics and can analyse polls with the best of Freepers. Certain Freepers don’t like my analysis, so they call me a troll. I’ve also had Freepers lie about my posting history behind my back. It’s not a matter of analysing polls, it’s that right before an election where the Pubbies are down, shooting the messenger becomes the main form of exercise around here.
RCP’s polling average the last two months of 2004. Who was winning?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
To those watching the polls, it was clear.
RCP today:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
It doesn’t take a statistician to know McCain’s in trouble. Heck, even Karl Rove, no friend of Dems, and an expert at reading polls, has Obama winning the electoral college with 277 votes right now.
Why do I bother coming here and opining on polling threads, since I take so much heat for not towing the Freeper line? Two reasons: 1) I was one of the Freepers asserting the loudest in 2006 that the polls were wrong and the Pubbies would win. This despite the fact that I know how to read polls and knew in my head, even if I would not admit it in my heart, the the Pubbies were losing. I was ashamed of myself after that. I knew better, I was trained better, and I vowed to speak the truth in the future, no matter how uncomfortable it made others. 2) There are Freepers, lots of ‘em, who have absolutely convinced themselves that it doesn’t matter what the polls say, McCain is winning. All the polls are lying, all the polls are biased, and all the pollsters want Obama to be President. That’s ridiculous, and it’s not overstating the case to say that I fear for their mental well-being. When people repeatedly deny reality, reality really bites. Remember the Dems in 2004 who were so convinced, despite the polls, that Kerry was going to win that they had to seek psychiatric treatment after the election? Their reasoning was that the youth vote was going to come out in droves and wasn’t showing up in the polling. They were dead wrong, and the polls were right. We’ve got some Freepers heading in that direction. There are still three weeks left, and things could change, but if the polls still look like this in th final days before November 4th, people need to prepare themselves.
So I’m going to keep coming on polling threads as often as I can, and keep analysing the polls, whether others like it or not.
McCain had to save his money until the last 3 weeks. Ronald Reagan was behind in the polls by as much as McCain is now and won the election in the last 72 hours. When Obama is being funded by unknown foreign etities and refused to take public financing even after he said he would take it, the McCain campaign had to prioritize. You will see a massive shift in Florida and in the airwaves these next three weeks. You can expect some fireworks from the GOP and McCain campaign as well...
If liberal whites will "Bradley-ize" a liberal black, what makes people think that moderate/independent whites will all of a sudden vote for a liberal black in accordance to what the (biased) polls are saying? I just don't see it happening.
I also don't see the "white-guilty" vote voting for Mr. Zero to counter the Bradley effect. Going back again in history of Dinkins/Guiliani, NYC is full of whites with "white guilt", but they still lied to the pollsters and voted for Guiliani.
I wished that the ones peddling the lines that "there is no Bradley effect" and "if there is, the white guilt vote will cancel out this effect" explain themselves, given recent history (especially Dinkins/Guiliani, 1989).
Ronald Reagan replaced an unpopular president, the Democrats were being blamed for a bad economy. This is NOT a good year for the GOP, quite the opposite. We are about to lose more seats in the Senate and the House, there is an unpopular president in the White House and the GOP is unjustly blamed for the state of the economy. Plus, you simply can’t compare Reagan, the man, and Reagan’s campaign, with McCain in both cases.
As you know, Florida has been hit very hard by the economic crisis and the housing crisis. Gov. Charlie Crist is staying away from this race instead of being out there, fighting. That is why the Democrats are ahead in this state, in addition to already having a 2 Million advantage when it comes to party ID.
McCain was the LAST name on that list for me, I was a Huckabee guy. I was giddy when he had his money troubles in the primary, and it was rumored that he may have to fold, as I could never stand the guy. Now I am to believe that I am all alone with my sentiment, that McCain is bringing out the masses, especially conservatives? I will hold my nose for the sake of the Supreme Court and downticket races as well as to have an opposing voice in the WH (if ever so meek) to combat the Democrats in Congress, but that is about it. I am amazed that some see a huge coming groundswell of excitement and exhuberance for the guy they generally have always disliked, never wanted him to be our candidate in the first place.
Why does the media have these "bellweather counties" polls out? Well, these suburbs have had a large influx from their cities recently as people took advantage of easy credit to move out of the cities. Likewise the people in the suburbs who sold have moved to rural areas.
So their improvement in 2004's "bellweather" counties don't mean Dems have more votes in toto- it just means the voters have moved around.
Hmmm, perhaps the weirdness of this year's polls- and they are weird- is partly yet another effect of sub-prime mortgages LOL!
Polls are BS, McCain/Palin are winning and will continue to win. You don’t draw 25,000 people to two different rallies on the same day, yesterday, and lose an election. Obama is lucky to draw 3000 people to one of his. You signed up this year, that makes you a troll in my opinion especially when coupled with your give up attitude.
so long as you aren't moaning and wringing your hands like so many are,i won't call you a troll for your analysis, whether i find it credible or not. i don't know from polls, but i am a lawyer and i can follow logic and trends. Personally, i find LS' analysis to be the most sound.
Remember the Dems in 2004 who were so convinced, despite the polls, that Kerry was going to win that they had to seek psychiatric treatment after the election?
despite WHAT polls? the polls had Kerry WINNING up to and including ELECTION DAY, so they had every right to seek psychiatric help; they'd been LIED TO and manipulated by the pollsters.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.