Posted on 10/09/2008 9:07:58 PM PDT by SmithL
When the latest Field Poll showed Proposition 8 losing by 17 points, skeptical supporters of the measure that would ban same-sex marriage in California invoked a phrase coined in the 1980s: "the Bradley effect."
Named after the late Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American who lost the 1982 California governor's race after polls showed him leading handily, the phrase refers to the tendency of respondents to lie to pollsters about issues of race.
The Bradley effect has been referenced in presidential polls this year as Sen. Barack Obama seeks to become the first black president. And it is also being used to describe possible disparities between polls taken on gay marriage measures and actual election results.
A new study of elections in 26 states – including California – found polls typically understate voter support for these measures.
"Because the media portrays gay marriages as being politically correct, people don't want to be seen by pollsters as being intolerant – so they hide their views," said Frank Schubert, campaign manager for the Yes on 8 campaign, which conducted the study.
As an example, Schubert cited Proposition 22, which California voters approved in 2000. The Field Poll showed the gay marriage ban – overturned in May by the state Supreme Court – was backed by 53 percent of voters right before the election. But when the votes were counted, 61 percent of voters supported the initiative.
The survey looked at measures banning same-sex marriage, dating back to the first such campaign in Hawaii in 1998. According to the study, surveys published by news media outlets before an election underestimated support for traditional marriage by an average of seven percentage points.
In only two of the 26 states did pre-election surveys accurately measure voter sentiment.
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
CA may not be able to elect a conservative, but Right leaning voters can kick the Hollywood and San Fran Left by supporting the gay marriage ban.
Strange that some folks would give a rip what a pollster - a complete stranger - thinks of their views.
I don’t know why the media is at war with America.
Ummmm...most undecideds break to the no column.
Sadly, this prop. is toast.
I don't believe this so-called tendency exists. What I do believe is what I see. And that is that poll questions are so blatantly biased that they give the result the polling organization desires, which is then used as propaganda. Subsequently, the pollsters believe their own propaganda.
The disgusting thing about this is that when voting reality destroys propaganda fantasy, voters are branded as racist by those same pollsters to cover up their own failed racist polls.
Well, here's a news flash for the pollsters: America isn't racist, pollsters are. That's the real "Bradley Effect".
Because the MSM is really in its own “cocooned leftist elitist world” apart from the majority of the general public. And the total general public is also separated into various groups, depending upon the political ideologies of each group (leftist, moderate, libertarian, conservative, authoritarian, and apolitical-Am I missing anybody else politically? Sorry if I missed any other political groups.).
You wish.
In part, because they can. Conservatives need to make sacrifices to force the liberal media into bankruptcy. Many of my neighbors who should know better continue to subscribe to the local newspaper, paying the salaries of people who hate everything that conservatives believe in.
People in the media are like professors; they’ve never done anything but take classes, read books, take exams, and write. They’ve never done anything that required them to get their hands dirty or mix with people who don’t value thoughts and ideas above making things work - people who actually take repsonsibility for keeping the wheels of society rolling. This makes them feel very inadequate as human beings and they “overcompensate” by cultivating feelings of superiority over their working neighbors. They don’t hate America - at least, that’s not their main agenda; they just feel compelled to derogate anyone who can work with his hands or take responsibility for making things happen.
It’s the same with the anti-gunners; they feel frightened of firearms because they’ve never handled one, and so they want to take them away from everyone else in order to cultivate a specious feeling of superiority.
It’s all phony-baloney, but they have a lot of influence because of their highly visible position in society. Same for actors and Hollywood types; they’ve never done anything but parrot lines fed them by directors, and, at bottom, they feel foolish to be doing something so inconsequential. Thus, they overcompensate by attempting to cultivate feelings of importance. It’s a losing proposition, of course, because they live in a fantasy world as a career, but they try anyway.
Lawyers are similar, in some ways, and, let’s face it, most of our senators and congressmen are lawyers. All these people put on airs to conceal the fact that they feel so insignificant. Don’t get me started...
And you mean what?
http://cbs5.com/local/proposition.8.poll.2.834082.html
The author makes no mention of the poll just out 2 days ago (above link). Instead he uses the Field Poll from a few weeks ago. Hmmmm...
The following SurveyUSA poll tells a different story than the Field Poll, which in my experience is a very biased poll.
California Proposition 8 Too Close To Call: In a vote today, 10/06/08, on California’s Proposition 8 Ballot Initiative, which would change California’s constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry, approximately half the state supports the measure, half the state opposes the measure, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. The exact findings are: ‘Yes’ (to change the law) 47%, ‘No’ (to leave the law alone) 42%. But: polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, and polling on homosexuality in general is a tricky business. So, not too much should be made of the 5 points that separates ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ today. Support for 8 may be higher or lower than any opinion pollster is able to measure. In a SurveyUSA poll released eleven days ago, 5 points again separated “Yes” from “No,” but in the other direction, with the “No” vote coming out nominally ahead.
What is clear today: Those in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley continue to want the law changed. Those in the Bay Area continue to want the law left alone. Those in greater LA remain split. The youngest voters, who are the hardest to poll and who are the most unpredictable voters, support the measure, after opposing it eleven days ago. Seniors support the measure. Minority groups view the measure differently: blacks support, Hispanics split, Asians and others oppose. Support is strong among conservatives, Republicans, and those who attend religious services regularly. Opposition is strong among liberals, Democrats, and those who never attend religious services.
Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b46ce159-115e-4f44-8be2-ce9b8eca657e
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
in ahead in the poll now.
there is a terrific new ad.
About the only good news I have heard.
This prop is going to pass, you’ll see. AND CA will go to McCain
I agree with you. My take on the "Bradley Effect", if there is really such a thing, is not that the respondent LIES to the pollster, but that these (presumably racist) respondents are harder to get hold of than the typical respondent. Pollsters already have to use several filters to get the sample they want (eg. party affiliation, sex, age). But how do you have a filter for racism? Obviously, you don't. So if there is any correlation between racists and willingness to respond to pollsters, the poll will be skewed.
Well O must be getting worried between Prop 8 and the Palin crowds just a few days ago (and what I suspect is the bigger thing, whatever internals are showing)...
I’m seeing new O ads in California and prior to this the only ones I’ve seen period were the ones during the Olympics which I believe I heard he was more or less running nationwide.
I’ve seen two since I got home just two hours ago.
Actually, a poll out yesterday showed for the first time that Yes was winning.
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