Posted on 10/07/2008 10:06:57 PM PDT by Chet 99
Actually, Wilder won - but just barely. He was supposed to win in a landslide.
Bradley lost, but many think it was because of a gun control measure on the ballot leading to a large turnout of people who ordinarily did not vote and thus did not show up in polls as “likely voters”.
That's right. Polls have a "margin of error". These days in presidential elections, republicans HAVE to win outside of the margin of fraud and litigation in order for the election results to really count.
Oh like what happened in New Hampshire!
Yup I see that. I will call it the Manhattan effect and the Hollywood effect...they are not going to give their money away...they are cool on the streets kissing Obamas feet, but in the boothe they well tell Obama to kiss theirs.
Its about the wallet!
Any “conservatives” that are voting Obama are probably the same ones that think guys like Chuck Hagel are awesome.
"If thou faint in the day of adversity, thy strength is small." Proverbs 24:10
I just do not believe that any conservatives are voting for BHO. Someone is lying to the pollsters.
Not at all possible that any "Conservatives" are leaning towards Hussein. If I get a call from a pollster and I say I am a liberal and lean towards McCain, does it in fact make me a liberal?
What worries me concerning the Bradley Effect is that, if it existed, you would expect Obama to do less well on the Rasmussen poll, because people punching in their answers to a computer-pollster would not be afraid the automated voice would think they’re racist.
But that computer poll, like Gallup, shows Obama up by 8.
I hate to say it, but I think we need to get ready.
And remember one thing most of all: The president is supposed to enforce the laws, not make them.
I can barely say it with a straight face after the bailout clusterfk, but look to Congress.
If not, it’s lock and load time folks. Seriously.
Gotta read between the lines. "Independents" maybe comprise 20% . . . so 9% lead among 20%=2%.
But Obama getting 7% LESS Dem voters (35% to 37% of the electorate) than Kerry did? That's 20%!! McCain probably getting less of the GOP than Bush did at this point, although my guess is that he will come within 1-2%. Say a 4% difference of 35% (8%). The math says Obama cannot lose 16% of the Dems and win, even if he gets 60% of the independents.
It’s gonna be close, period. However, I don’t think elections are stolen. In OH, you had “early voting” of 4,000 votes. If every single one was fraud, that would leave Obama 111,000 votes short of winning if he gets Kerry’s 2004 #s . . . and he isn’t close.
As the election approaches, pollsters move away from leading public opinion at the pleasure of their sponsors to actually producing a poll result to preserve/develop their own reputation. Zogby *usually* gets it right in the end. IMO, the sooner Zogby moves McCain out in front, the greater the victory in the end. If Zero maintains a lead right up until election day, well, welcome to the USSA.
McCAin campaign ---- PLS DO NOT STOP ATTACKING OBAMA WITH AYERS/REZKO until Election Day. Only by SOWING DOUBT in people's mind can McCain WIN THIS ELECTION!
Have you considered there could be other problems with Ras?
Problems distinct from the Bradley effect and what computer generated poll answers would mean for the transparency of that effect.
For your concern to hold true, all other factors about the varying polls would have to be the same and they’re not.
Some conservatives need an emergency check-up at Bellvue Mental Institute.
Nah. This just shows how much a sham these polls are. People will say anything over the phone to manipulate polls themselves. And the pollsters take it for granted instead of questioning the logic.
Also, McCain gained 2% in today’s Rasmussen poll. Thread pulled, not sure why. I just read it myself at RCP second page (which is always more up-to-date than front page by 30 minutes.
Rasmussen has Obama only up 6 today.
“I would like to know who are these people that change their mind after every news cycle? It is hard to believe the electorate is really that volatile.”
Ohhhh that is such an intelligent remark. It’s true, why should the polls go up and down daily? Because they arent’ really valid.
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