Gallup Daily: Obama Holds 5-Point Lead

Gallup ^ | 9/27/08 | Gallup

[tatown]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain, 49% to 44%, when registered voters are asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.

[Fishrrman]

“I feel the momentum shifting and for the first time I believe 0bama has a real chance of winning (based primarily on the market meltdown and how voters will punish the incumbent party)”

Indeed. Once we see a candidate “breaking the 50% barrier”, gets pretty hard for the other guy to catch up.

Granted, the true battleground is the five or so contested states, such as Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and - most importantly - Pennsylvania.

If Obama starts pulling ahead in the next few weeks in _these_ states, and showing his strength consistently across various polls, gonna be a tough four years ahead.

I hope I’m proven wrong.

- John

[tatown]

Your right! If either candidate is up by 2 or 3 points nationally, however, the electoral college will almost certainly be in their column as well.

[Fred]

Obama and Paulson are carrying the water for wall street. Obama could careless about main street.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

You're probably right. What's comforting, though, is the election is still a ways off. Can O hold serve over the next 40 days riding a narrative thats about 2 weeks old now? I speak of the meltdown on Wall Street, that's whats started this shift to Milhouse. I say not likely, and to back that up I highlight Effin's spectacularly bad September 2004 that he had, it looked like W was running away with it, yet in the end, he narrowly pulled off yet another close election.

If Eff'n could do so well after such a terrible month so close to election, then this thing is by no means over. If this thing blows over, which is in all probability very likely, then we shift back to a tied race. If McCain can deflate this and pin it on the D's, something he's done very poorly at of late, he can not only negate the dmg but swing things back in his favor. So we'll see.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

It comes down to taking FL, OH, IN, VA, NV and one of the following: CO, or NH + 1 EV from ME. Very good chance of that.

[Dilbert San Diego]

?

[Dilbert San Diego]

?

[avacado]

M-—O
46-44
39-56 (17 point spread?)
47-47

Is that Gallup? And is it Wed: 47-47, Thurs: 39-56, Fri: 46-44? And if I am correct, then McCain on Friday was up by 2 (46-44)?

[TapsBrowning]

I’ve been tracking this for over a month but admit that it is a guesstimate. The changes have been fairly close to my tracking when the “outlier days” drop off though.

Yeah, I know. I need a life. ;)

[TapsBrowning]

47-47 is Friday

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Interesting, if true. People need to chill the eff out...no bounce has held yet and we are still way too far from the election for any one candidate to 'hold serve'. The Milhouse convention bounce faded, as did his 'Europe tour' bounce, and finally so did McCain's convention/Palin bounce...so, this latest Milhouse bounce probably will, too...leaving a tied race by next week.

I didn't watch the debate last night but just from looking at the aftermath, McCain at the very least did much better than W in his first debate in '04, and almost undoubtedly did much much better. And btw, the markets have been riled all year, the last 2 weeks is nothing new, so Milhouse would be hard pressed to hold on to this latest bounce, it will recede just as fast as it appeared.

[seekthetruth]

I don't believe the polls most of the time....especially those we know will favor Obama. However after hearing about the “Obama Squad” in Missouri, Obama is most likely to go way up in the polls because folks will be more afraid to say ANYTHING negative about “The One”!

If you haven’t heard, folks, the “Obama Squad is alive and well in Missouri! I am sure they are looking for ways to get “Obama Squads” up and running in every state. According to Missouri prosecutors Jennifer Joyce and Bob McCulloch, a person is violating “ethics laws” if the person says anything about Obama that sounds to them like a “lie” or sounds to them like it is a “misleading statement”. Just listen to the video below and read the FR thread below! This should be ALL OVER THE NEWS!

http://www.kmov.com/video/index.html?nvid=285793&shu=1

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2091329/posts

[TapsBrowning]

You don’t go from 47-44 Obama to 46-46 tie to 48-45 Obama in 3 consecutive days without an outlier coming into play or a big McCain day dropping off. I’ve got McCain dropping off a Tuesday 50-44. The wide swing in the numbers over the last couple days is telling.

Again, this is a guestimate based on following this since 8/24

[moose2004]

A 17 point swing in one day, there’s no way I buy that. This race is tied.

[ConservativeMind]

There's a difference between “registered” voters and “likely” voters.

Democrats have more registered voters, but Republicans are more likely to turn out to vote.

It is a difference of 2-6% points on any given survey, if the polling firm chooses to mention the numbers.

[TV Dinners]

yes... most of this country is stupid.
To be ‘undecided’ is completely moronic, IMHO.

[avacado]

"47-47 is Friday"

Thanks! That outlier that you showed was very strange. Wonder what caused that?

[avacado]

"I didn't watch the debate last night but just from looking at the aftermath, McCain at the very least did much better than W in his first debate in '04, and almost undoubtedly did much much better."

It started slow with the financial crisis. I guess neither one wanted to point fingers but Jim Leher got them to arguing. He encouraged it. And once they were fired up and the subject turned to foreign policy McCain tore through Obama quite successfully.

[TapsBrowning]

If my guess is close, we should see a measurable change in Obama’s 3 day average number on Monday when that “big day” drops off.