Posted on 09/26/2008 10:29:39 AM PDT by Red Steel
Republican John McCain has a slight lead, one within the statistical margin of error, in Virginia over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for the White House, according to a new poll of likely voters.
The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., was released Wednesday. It surveyed 625 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
Among those surveyed, 47 percent said they support McCain, compared with 44 percent for Obama. One percent said they support another candidate, and 8 percent were undecided.
Among voters in the Southside/Lynchburg region, which includes Henry County and Martinsville, 49 percent said they support McCain, compared with 41 percent for Obama. Nine percent were undecided, and 1 percent supported another candidate.
Obama had the lead in Northern Virginia, where 55 percent of those surveyed said they support the Illinois senator, compared with 37 percent for McCain. Seven percent were undecided, and 1 percent supported another candidate.
McCain, R-Ariz., led other regions of the state by the following margins:
• Shenandoah/Piedmont: 55 percent McCain, 36 percent Obama, 9 percent undecided.
• Richmond Metro: 52 percent McCain, 39 percent Obama, 8 percent undecided.
• Hampton Roads: 48 percent McCain, 44 percent Obama, 7 percent undecided.
• Roanoke/Southwest: 54 percent McCain, 36 percent Obama, 9 percent undecided.
One percent of voters in all regions except Shenandoah/Piedmont said they support another candidate.
More men in the survey said they support McCain, while women backed Obama in larger numbers. Among men surveyed, McCain had the support of 51 percent, compared with 39 percent for Obama. Among women, 49 percent support Obama, compared with 43 percent for McCain. Eight percent of both groups were undecided, and 2 percent of men said they support another candidate.
Obama led those aged 18 to 34 by a large margin, while McCain led in every other age category. The results were:
• 18-34: 54 percent Obama, 37 percent McCain, 9 percent undecided.
• 35-49: 46 percent for McCain, 44 percent for Obama, 9 percent undecided.
• 50-64: 51 percent McCain, 41 percent Obama, 7 percent undecided.
• 65 and older: 51 percent McCain, 41 percent Obama, 7 percent undecided.
One percent of voters in the last three age groups said they support another candidate.
Among black voters, only 4 percent of those surveyed said they support McCain, compared with 89 percent for Obama and 7 percent undecided. Among whites, 56 percent said they support McCain, while 35 percent said they back Obama, 6 percent were undecided and 1 percent support someone else.
McCain had a clear lead among likely voters who had served in the military. Sixty-five percent said they back McCain, a Navy veteran and former POW, compared with 30 percent for Obama, 4 percent undecided and 1 percent for someone else.
Among those who have not served in the military, 48 percent support Obama compared with 41 percent for McCain, 10 percent undecided and 1 percent for someone else.
Each candidate had the overwhelming support of voters who identify with his respective party. Among Democrats, 85 percent said they support Obama, 8 percent McCain and 6 percent undecided. Among Republicans, 81 percent said they support McCain, 9 percent Obama and 9 percent undecided. One percent of each group said they support someone else.
Those surveyed also were asked how each candidate’s choice of running mate has affected them, if at all. McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as running mate had a greater impact on those surveyed than did Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, the poll showed.
Of McCain’s choice of Palin, 37 percent said it would make them more likely to vote for McCain, 21 percent said less likely, and 41 percent said no effect.
Twenty-one percent of those surveyed said Biden would make them more likely to vote for Obama, 13 percent said less likely, and 65 percent said it would have no effect.
One percent of voters answered “not sure” to both questions.
The poll also asked those surveyed whom they support in the race for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican John Warner.
Democrat Mark Warner, who is not related to John Warner, has a commanding lead over his Republican opponent, Jim Gilmore, the poll showed. Among those surveyed, 61 percent said they support Mark Warner, compared with 28 percent for Gilmore. Eleven percent were undecided.
Both candidates are former Virginia governors.
Warner led in every region of the state, including the Southside/Lynchburg region, where he had 59 percent of those surveyed compared with 30 percent for Gilmore. Eleven percent were undecided.
Warner also led among men, women, all age groups, whites, blacks, Democrats and independent voters. Warner’s lead was smallest among those who have served in the military, where he led Gilmore 46 percent to 44 percent, with 10 percent undecided.
Gilmore led among Republicans, with 51 percent saying they support him, 33 percent saying they support Warner and 16 percent undecided.
Among those voters who said they support Warner, 67 percent said they plan to vote for Obama compared with 24 percent for McCain and 8 percent undecided.
Among those who support Gilmore, 90 percent said they support McCain, 3 percent said they plan to vote for Obama, and 6 percent were undecided.
One percent of each group supported someone else.
The survey also asked respondents which presidential candidate they trust to handle certain issues. They results were:
• Economy: 46 percent McCain, 45 percent Obama, 9 percent don’t know/no difference.
• National security: 59 percent McCain, 36 percent Obama, 5 percent don’t know/no difference.
• Reforming government: 45 percent Obama, 44 percent McCain, 11 percent don’t know/no difference.
• Developing energy resources and reducing dependence on foreign sources: 45 percent McCain, 43 percent Obama, 12 percent don’t know/no difference.
The survey was conducted Sept. 17-22.
The deadline to register to vote in the Nov. 4 election is Oct. 6.
Great. SO when you add in the ‘racist’ tilt the MSM keeps accusing us of, McCain is actually up 10!
Mason Dixon is good in the mid atlantic region, they know it well, and their polls are spot on in this area.
Not sure how well MD does in other regions in the US.
I think it was SurveyUSA who came out this morning showing B. Hussein 5 points ahead. These polls are all over the place.
These polls are too weird to believe. In the same day you can find one that puts one guy up by 2 points and another that has his opponent up by 4. Or they post something that claims a 10 or 12 point swing overnight. The only thing they tell me is that there is a slice of the electorate that is apparently pretty darned confused.
That’s why people need to stop paying attention to them!
But heaven knows they will make up some story about why this is what it is, then wait for another poll tomorrow and make up a story for that too.
Mason Dixon is the best polling outfit by far. Rasmussen is also OK and I am a little concerned about their recent numbers.
This is northern Virginia - McCain by 19% - contradicts all the naysayers and hand wringers thinking Obama is hammering McCain in the North part of the state.
20-somethings don’t vote. When will people learn? Of course, they say they will, it’s their duty, etc...but when push comes to the shove of actually showing up, they’d rather sleep in or game or anything else.
Those with some skin in the game (ie pay taxes or mooch off those who pay taxes) are the ones who show up at the polls.
McCain just needs to continue to stand up for the taxpayers against the foolishness originating out of DC and he will win this thing solidly. Everyone knows what Obama represents. The taxpayers can’t afford Obama-Pelosi-Reid running this nation.
Hey, it's not "us."
"We" won't be voting for 0bama no matter what color he is.
The problem is the Robert Byrd wing of the Demonrat party.
They won't be voting for a black guy.
One of 0bama's supporters suggested that if 0bama isn't up by 7 or 8 on election day, he won't win.
First off, Mason-Dixon is my favorite pollster, especially when dealing with southern states. Having said that, McCain leads by 21 points among whites in a state where just over 72% of the population is white (acc to 2000 census), and it translates to only a three-point lead? I can't do the math right now, but that does not seem right to me, not at all.
VA can also be considered by same census data to have 74% white population (slightly different measurement).
Whew! I feel so much better now, he was 5 points behind a few pages ago. ;)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2091203/posts
Negative. The Obamessiah is winning northern VA 55-37 in this same poll.
Wow. That was fast. He was down 5 just a dozen threads ago.
I live in Pulaski County Virginia and I am voting for McCain/Palin! I know alot of the farmers in this area. Three in particular do not own cell phones or want one, do not have computers, and 2 of them no cable. They are life-long democrats and I have enjoyed bantering back and forth with them re: politics over the last 20+ yrs my husband and I have known them.
Guess what? ALL THREE have said they are definately voting for McCain and there is NOTHING they see about Obama they like. One of them said this is the first time he will ever vote for a Republican!!!
So, where do people such as THIS enter into all of these national polls? They don’t.
I was embarrased enough when Tim Kaine got elected. I pray Virginia will restore its honor and be RED this time around :>)
Correct. And this grouping below in favor of Obama by 17% should not carry the same weight as older Americans. It's misleading to count them as equals in polls. As you say, these young ones will not show up.
• 18-34: 54 percent Obama, 37 percent McCain, 9 percent undecided.
“Hampton Roads: 48 percent McCain, 44 percent Obama, 7 percent undecided.”
I think McCain is leading Tidewater by more than this considering all the active and retired military in the region who heavily favor Mac.
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