Posted on 09/24/2008 10:43:36 AM PDT by 1stStrike
Check out the polling game back in 2004 which showed Kerry leading.
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A Big Catholic Shift to Kerry? (beliefnet.com)
Two new polls show a significant shift of white Catholics to John Kerry--which, if it holds up, could be a decisive development in the election.
A Pew Research Center poll released Wednesday has Kerry winning among white Catholics 50%-43%--a huge change from the October 3 poll which had Bush leading 49% to 33%.
http://www.beliefnet.com/story/154/story_15467_1.html
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Exit Polls Showed Kerry Leading (truthinvoting.org)
This is a pdf
http://www.truthinvoting.org/ExitPolls_vs_FinalTally_MORE.pdf
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Down the stretch, a dead heat (sptimes.com) Published October 24, 2004 http://www.sptimes.com/2004/10/24/Decision2004/Down_the_stretch__a_d.shtml
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Kerry edging Bush in Pa. poll (pittsburghlive.com) Tuesday, October 26, 2004
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_265886.html
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Women, independents help Kerry erase 9-point deficit (arkansasnews.com)
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/News/306446.html
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Exit polls favour Kerry
http://newsmine.org/content.php?ol=cabal-elite/election-fraud/2004/exit-polls-show-kerry-leading-ohio-florida-pennsylvania.txt
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Kerry surges in AOL straw poll
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39968
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Short memories will drive you nuts!
You forgot my personal favorite, the Survey USA poll three days before the election showing Virginia still up for grabs, with Bush leading Kerry only 51-47. Kerry had already abandoned the state by that time, and Bush increased his margin of victory from the 2000 election, ultimately prevailing by 9 points.
A different story? I don’t know what you’re implying, Obama lover, but those polls showed a very tight race. Which is what we got in 2004.
Victory will be won on the ground. We beat the polls in 2004 and we will beat them again.
2008 is not going as well for McCain as it did for Bush in 2004. ... Obama lover ...
You know damn well that isn't true, but much like the MSM, keeping reapting and many here will believe it. If you believe this to be true, get the admins to suspend me from FR. Otherwise, deal with it.
2008 is not going as well for McCain as it did for Bush in 2004.
... Obama lover ...
You know damn well that isn't true, but much like the MSM, keeping repeating and many here will believe it. If you believe this to be true, get the admins to suspend me from FR. Otherwise, deal with it or maybe just ignore my posts.
Tight butts drive me nuts.
Owl_Eagle
"When the stock market crashed,
Franklin Roosevelt got on the television
and didn't just talk about the princes of greed,
he said, 'Look, here's what happened.'"
Joe Biden
You mean like you keep ignoring my posts asking if you received your "Country First" yard sign? Is it too much to ask for a simple thank you, and to see if your McCain sign is prominently displayed? I worry so, after you told us all how much difficulty you were have locating a McCain/Palin sign.
Suspend you for having an alternate view? On FR? I think you're confusing this forum with DU. I've heard they have very Draconian measures such as what you describe.
Actually, as even you know, McCain is doing very well right now. 2008 is also a close race, just like 2004. Only without an incumbent. So perhaps 2000 (also very close) is a better model.
I agree with you. McCain is pretty much where Kerry was, up a couple of times here and there nationally but the trend has been the “chosen one” since late spring. Obviously things state by state are a bit different, but Im not convinced those poll numbers will hold for McCain if the national numbers dont improve after the debate.
Id think the first debate is key, if McCain doesnt come out of that with a solid lead, capturing independents, he is going to have a tough time catching Obama for the last 40 days of the race.
Im still optimistic, but this will be a close race as in 00 and 04.
Like the British chap who had a steering wheel for a belt buckle.
"It's driving me nuts."
Unless the polls are absolutely random in the selection of those being questioned — and it appears that they are not — even in this age of more advanced technology, then of course the polls are going to show skewed results.
But in my view, and being the contrarian that I am, perhaps this is what the pollsters want. That is to say, the psychology of being “with the winner” is strong in political audiences.
The foolishness of this psychology comes home to roost when the front-running candidate loses the election because the people who had been sold the bill of goods then claim the elections were “stolen” by the winning party.
The misguided hope that comes from skewed poll data belongs in an alternative universe, but it’s where the people live who cling to the promise of hope by the hopeful one. sarc
The other reality in this alternative universe is that, even skewed poll data set aside, the voters that are being registered may not even show up to vote. That is, unless they are invited to a free pizza/beer/rock band part after voting. But then, they’d have to produce a voting receipt as a their entry ticket.
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