The Battleground States on Eve of the Debates (NPR Poll of Battleground states: McCain 46, Obama 44)

NPR ^

[Chet 99]

Executive Summary

On the eve of the first presidential debate, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Public Opinion Strategies conducted a bipartisan survey of the presidential battleground states for National Public Radio. The survey was based on interviews with 800 likely voters in the 14 states that will decide the presidency.

The survey shows intense interest and nearly universal intention to watch the upcoming debates: 62 percent are “very likely” to watch the first presidential debate (up from 51 percent in 2000 before the Gore-Bush debate). Expectations are high for Obama, as a near majority of 49 percent expect him to perform better, compared to only 34 percent expecting McCain to dominate. The full survey results can be found on our website, and the radio broadcast can be heard at www.npr.org. Key Findings

The first presidential debate is taking place at a time when the race is at a dead heat (44 to 46 percent McCain) in the battleground states and also a time when Barack Obama is making gains in critical areas:

* The economy. Obama has emerged with a 9 point advantage on the economy — probably the most important comparison at this point. Obama also holds a 16 point advantage on “bringing the right kind of change.”

* Obama has gained on authenticity and honesty: He made massive gains at McCain’s expense on who “has flip flopped on the issues.”

* Obama has made important gains on leadership qualities: a 6-point gain compared to McCain on “has what it takes to be president”; a 7-point gain on which candidate is “too risky.” Indeed, the two candidates achieve nearly equal ratings on these leadership attributes.

* Obama gained 6 points compared to McCain on “taxes” -- McCain’s signature economic issue. Despite these gains, McCain is maintaining a 7-point lead with independent voters — an important reason why this race is still a dead heat in the battleground states.

Methodology

These results are based on a bi-partisan survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies in conjunction with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for National Public Radio. The survey fielded September 18th & 20th, 2008 in the presidential battleground states. It has a sample size of 800 likely voters and a margin of error of +/-3.4 percent. The battleground states included in this sample are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

"As the debates approach, Barack Obama is making gains in critical areas..." Related Reports

[Perdogg]

I just hope McCain doesn't say what a great Sec of State Madeleine Allbright was.

[BigEdLB]

B..b..but the ABC pollsays this ain’t so.... Oh, the humanity...

[rom]

If this nugget is true:

“...Expectations are high for Obama, as a near majority of 49 percent expect him to perform better, compared to only 34 percent expecting McCain to dominate.”

Then McCain is in great shape. He should absolutely dominate this debate.

[johniegrad]

National Proletariat Radio spins a loss in the polls to indicate it is really a lead.

[DRey]

That is the most convoluted polling report I’ve ever read: “44 to 46 McCain,” then goes on to bullet point how Obama is ahead of McCain? They really worked hard to downplay McCain’s LEAD.

[uncbob]

* The economy. Obama has emerged with a 9 point advantage on the economy — probably the most important comparison at this point. Obama also holds a 16 point advantage on “bringing the right kind of change.” * Obama has gained on authenticity and honesty: He made massive gains at McCain’s expense on who “has flip flopped on the issues.”

Shows how stupid the public is

They know NOTHING about Obama's economic history and he is flip flopping allover

[CycloneGOP]

What say you ABC?

[Wilder Effect]

Obama down to 47 at Gallup today.

47 to 44, Registered Voters of Course

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

I believe Obama has a 4 or 5 point lead nationally. I believe it is tied in the battleground states.

People are freaking out about these polls. I said that Obama would be up 5 to 10 points going into the debates. If McCain is within 5 after the debates, I believe he will win the election.

It is time to buckle down and stay focused.

[johniegrad]

I have to agree. If expectations are that low for McCain he can go nowhere but up.

[Chet 99]

Most people have neither seen nor heard of the Saddleback debate. You’re right,this is good for the expectations game.

[Harry Wurzbach]

Obama also holds a 16 point advantage on “bringing the right kind of change.”

Are most Americans braindead? What's the "right kind of change"? Saying the word "change" 24/7? Incredible.

Americans deserve the government they elect. Stop pretending that somehow we are trapped in some kind of corrupt system. It's very simple. All we have to do is make better decisions at the polls on election day.

[Red Badger]

In the Dickens novel Great Expectations, the protagonist was raised to believe that he would someday achieve greatness thru no real effort on his own part. He eventually learned that this was not so and had to earn his greatness in this world. Obama hasn't gotten to the second part yet..............

[Hones]

Could they try any harder to bury the fact McCain was actually ahead in this poll?

[Perdogg]

I am not worried about McCain saying something like “in 1941 when the Germans bombed Pearl harbor” I am worried he will say something like “My best friend Warren Christopher” or “My best friend George Tenant”, “Madeline Allbright was an excellent sec of state”.

[Red Badger]

Changes
David Bowie

I still don’t know what I was waiting for
And my time was running wild
A million dead-end streets
Every time I thought I’d got it made
It seemed the taste was not so sweet
So I turned myself to face me
But I’ve never caught a glimpse
Of how the others must see the faker
I’m much too fast to take that test

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Don’t want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Just gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I can’t trace time

I watch the ripples change their size
But never leave the stream
Of warm impermanence and
So the days float through my eyes
But still the days seem the same
And these children that you spit on
As they try to change their worlds
Are immune to your consultations
They’re quite aware of what they’re going through

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Don’t tell t hem to grow up and out of it
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Where’s your shame
You’ve left us up to our necks in it
Time may change me
But you can’t trace time

Strange fascination, fascinating me
Changes are taking the pace I’m going through

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Oh, look out you rock ‘n rollers
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Pretty soon you’re gonna get a little older
Time may change me
But I can’t trace time
I said that time may change me
But I can’t trace time

[BigEdLB]

Obama has gained on authenticity and honesty

OK the NPR/PBS stuff is creeping in...

Here is some authenticity of Barry-O, THE ONE, for everyone to consider

[cvq3842]

Let's hope so. And he has to defeat the army of Democrat spin-meisters out there who have already written their notes on how he looked old, offered nothing new, flip-flopped, didn't have presidential temperament, etc., etc., etc.

[Prokopton]

Then McCain is in great shape. He should absolutely dominate this debate.

Why do you say that? McCain is one of the worst speakers I've ever heard. Sarah will not be there to make him look good. Obama only has to memorize his canned answers and will come across as good as he does with a teleprompter. Unless Obama says something really stupid, the media will make sure that he will be seen as the "winner" of the debate. To most people, this perception is more important than the actual debate.