Posted on 09/24/2008 6:33:17 AM PDT by CatOwner
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 49% of the vote while John McCain earns 47%. It’s the first time in more than two weeks that Obama has enjoyed a lead larger than a single percentage point (see trends). Both men are now viewed favorably by 55% and Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 52.0% chance of victory (see market results for key states) ...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Apparently. Replacing Saturday's polling with yesterday's polling caused McCain to lose 2 points, which is rare in this poll to the point that it may be an outlier (which statistically will happen approximately 5% of the time).
I suppose we should wait for Gallup to see if it reports the same thing. To be sure, in that poll a good McCain Saturday is going to drop off and Obama had a good Sunday, so it may be hard to tell.
thanks. what are there party splits ?
Rasmussen is weighting it: Dems 39%, Reps 33%.
The 2004 election turnout was Dems 37%, Reps 37%
And the spread has never been greater than 4 points in any Presidential election since 1988. Still, even if the lead is arguably less than two points, it seems obvious that McCain did not have a very good polling night last night. That's okay. It is going to happen from time to time. The beauty of a tracking poll is that the bad nights drop out in a few days.
In 2000 Ras was terrible, calling it +5/+6 for Bush all the time. That was way off. In 2004, he got it right.
Now, he may be oversampling Republicans again. If he calls it O +2, it may be closer to O +3/+4, imo. Yesterday was obviously a very bad polling day for McCain, for no clear reason.
To win, McCain needs to hold all five of CO, VA, NV, OH and FL.
If the election took place today, McCain would lose CO (definitely), VA (likely) and possibly NV and OH as well. He is in about the same shape Kerry was before the first debate. Kerry managed to make it closer, though never quite got back to even in the RCP average.
Nonsense. McCain is ahead right now in VA and OH.
I don't know that he used the same D vs R percentages. I do know that he screwed up badly in 2000, when he wasn't weighting by party ID, and switched to party weighting in 2004. But I don't remember him giving Ds a six point advantage, and in any event in 2004 the same number of Republicans voted as Democrats (percentages were 37D, 37R, and the rest Is).
Either the economic sentiment will improve, or Congress will leave town without doing anything and we'll all be living in huts on $1/week like Obama's brother. I doubt politicians want to go into the election with the voters in bread lines, so I'll take a wild guess that a rescue bill in some form will pass.
Work hard for Mccain? But the guy is an idiot!!!!! Who does he think he is? Pulling a RINO on me? Does he think that he has already won the presidency by choosing Palin?
He absolutely deserves his poor polling result when it comes to Economy. Even before he becomes president he has already breached his promises. He said it over and over again during his stump speech that he would make those corruption people in Washington famous by calling out their names. Ok, then why is he NOT calling out Dodd, Frank’s names in the past few weeks? Instead he called out Chris Cox?? Give me a break John Mccain, you are a disgrace. If it’s not because of Sarah Palin, I wouldn’t even hire you to clean my toilet.
John Mccain deserves to Lose, Obama does not deserve to win.
As well they should. Regardless of any bad laws the Democrats might have helped pass, Bush has been in charge of virtually every body that has oversight. Bush's people are the ones who have consistently lied to the American people about the extent of the problem. Bush's people are the Wall Street insiders who were appointed to positions that had the power to prevent these problems. Bush, and his buddies were asleep at the wheel and cannot escape responsibility for the resulting crash.
If ever there was a time for McCain to be the maverick and run against the entrenched Republican "good ol' boys", this is it.
Rasmussen is a rolling average, so McCain is susceptible to polls that are weighted in ridiculous-to-believe ways in favor of BHO - attempting to manipulate and control public opinion to reflect what the polls say, instead of the polls reflecting public opinion.
couldn’t agree more. In 2004, the election day party ID was dead even Dem/Rep. That was with the Iraq war at the top of the headlines and the issue in the campaign. Historically, the Dem/Rep spread has not been greater than 3% difference in the past 30 years. Rasmussen currently has Dems +5.5% in his weighting. Wash ComPost poll had dems +10%. The spread will not be that wide if there is one on election day. McCain is winning women and Independent. I predict that 0bama will receive no more than 46% of the popular vote nationally.
VA
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/17 - 09/22 625 LV 47 44 McCain +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 50 48 McCain +2
ABC News/Wash Post 09/18 - 09/21 698 LV 46 49 Obama +3
SurveyUSA 09/19 - 09/21 716 LV 45 51 Obama +6
looks about even to me, at best
We’ll get card check, some goofy Supreme Court justices, fairness doctrine, higher taxes, more regulation, and socialized health care. Man, we’re going to end up worse than France.
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The Fairness Doctrine scares me the worst because it shuts down dissent. Taking away our free speech under the guise of Fairness is scary! The Founders would never stand for this. If this happens, we need a flaming march on Washington demanding our free speech!
The sad thing isn’t that Obama might win; the saddest thing is that marxist socialist even has a chance of winning.
And yet, no President Kerry. Could it be that debates and daily tracking polls aren't quite as important as conventional wisdom assumes?
I recall that Bush did poorly in the first debate, well in the second, and that the third was a draw; only the media said "Bush lost".
I feel very confident that McCain will get an edge from the debates. He is clearly comfortable speaking off-the-cuff, and he knows what he believes. That self-knowledge imparts confidence. Barry, too, knows what he believes, but he can't say any of it if he wants to be elected. That imparts uncertainty.
the problem is IA, NM, and CO. We lose those, assuming we hold FL, and we may have NH, but we would still need a combo of PA, MI, MN, and/or WI.
If we lose IA, NM, and CO and everything else remains the same from 2004, we lose.
Rasmussen’s % moves tend to be tiny because of his party mix lockdown, and when you see a 2% move it is a tidal wave.
The Bailout Needs To Be Defined, Passed and Signed Within The Next 48 Hours Or The Election Is Over And We Get Obama.
The really bad news is the Democrats are about to read those tea leaves and delay it until after the election, to win.
Winning matters. Always.
I am hoping that two things will work to turn things around: the economic outlook will improve during the next few weeks as a plan is approved in Congress. Also, Obama will likely stumble and bumble his way through the debates, and no matter how the media tries to spin it (and they will), people will see for themselves that he is not the genius he (and they) think he is.
IA and NM are practically gone. McCain is running 5-7 % behind his national numbers in both, pretty consistently.
In CO, he is running 2% or so behind the national mean. Which means that he may have to win the popular vote by 2% to prevail in the EC count.
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