[snarkytart]

Nonsense. McCain is ahead right now in VA and OH.

[ubaldus]

VA

NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/17 - 09/22 625 LV 47 44 McCain +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 50 48 McCain +2
ABC News/Wash Post 09/18 - 09/21 698 LV 46 49 Obama +3
SurveyUSA 09/19 - 09/21 716 LV 45 51 Obama +6

looks about even to me, at best

[Perdogg]

the problem is IA, NM, and CO. We lose those, assuming we hold FL, and we may have NH, but we would still need a combo of PA, MI, MN, and/or WI.

If we lose IA, NM, and CO and everything else remains the same from 2004, we lose.