the problem is IA, NM, and CO. We lose those, assuming we hold FL, and we may have NH, but we would still need a combo of PA, MI, MN, and/or WI.
If we lose IA, NM, and CO and everything else remains the same from 2004, we lose.
IA and NM are practically gone. McCain is running 5-7 % behind his national numbers in both, pretty consistently.
In CO, he is running 2% or so behind the national mean. Which means that he may have to win the popular vote by 2% to prevail in the EC count.
Forget IA, that will go Obama....Might as well consider that state a little piece of Socialism in the heartland of America.
If we lose IA, NM, and CO and everything else remains the same from 2004, we lose.
__________________________
IA is gone and it looks like we can say the same for NM. CO shouldn’t even be close, but someone told me that Obama’s chief demo group is white collar and young and both are in abundance in CO. Anyway Colorado is slipping away. The good news? Well Penn and Wisconsin both look like we might have better than a 50/50 chance of winning.
If we lose IA, NM, and CO, and get NH, we could still win by getting 1 EV in Maine (2nd CD)
we are losing Iowa... which is normal...