Poll: McCain leads Obama By 3% in Michigan (46% - 43%)

MRG ^ | September 23, 2008

[notes2005]

Poll: McCain leads Obama By 3% in Michigan McCain’s Strong Support Among Independents and Male voters gives him a slight 46% - 43% lead in a Toss-Up State LANSING – A poll released today by Inside Michigan Politics shows that Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain has a slim three (3) point lead over Barack Obama in Michigan’s latest poll. The poll shows that both candidates have strong support with their base voters, but McCain’s support among Independent voters 45%- 37% (+8%) puts him on top in this toss-up state “John McCain has a track record with Michigan Independent voters,” said Bill Ballenger, Editor of Inside Michigan Politics. “The current polling shows that they still like him and they like and support Sarah Palin as his running mate.” The poll showed that Obama continues to show strong support among women (+2%), young voters (+16%), African Americans (+89%), voters living in the Detroit Metro area (+9%) along with his traditional Democratic base. John McCain is showing strength among blue–collar voters (+10%), men (+9%), white males (+29%), conservatives (+62%) and voters living in West Michigan (+12%) and the Flint/Saginaw/Bay City Area (+8%).

[Darren McCarty]

Pontiac is a city in Oakland County. Oakland is a swing county.

[Perdogg]

sorry, are there votes outside of Wayne to offset the democrat support in Wayne?

[MaineConservative]

Hmmm... Up by 3?? Okay that means Obama is losing by 10%!! :)

Vote Obama if you like Michigan's 1 state recession to visit your hometown.

[Darren McCarty]

Wayne County is the top county in the state for the democrats. About 45% of Wayne County is Detroit. It will go for Obama, the question is by how much. At best, I think McCain can cut the losses there to about 300,000. In 2004, Bush lost Wayne County by 340,000 votes.

Bush lost Michigan by 165,000 votes out of almost 5 million votes. Wayne County delivered 870,000 of those votes. If McCain can win Oakland narrowly and take a 20,000 vote win in Macomb County, and either win or tie in the Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City areas by taking some of those blue collar democrat suburbs, he'll win.

[Azzurri]

I am starting to have the strangest feeling....that of winning Michigan which has the no.1 Liberal city in America, Detroit, in it.

I wouldn't say the most liberal (San Francisco, Berkeley are much more leftist), but Detroit is probably the biggest Democratic Party stronghold. I also feel McCain is going to carry Michigan...and probably Pennsylvania.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

McCain ought to do better among the bluebloods in the suburbs, which I figured Bush didn’t do well with in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[JohnnyZ]

I think just VA (Wilder in 1989).

Colorado has actually elected three blacks statewide: Vikki Buckley as Sec State, Joe Rogers and George Brown as Lt Govs.

[1035rep]

A new Michigan poll has McCain ahead of Obama, 46% to 43%!

It’s notable that this poll was taken during the peak of the economic crisis (Sep. 15-19).

Great news! I expected this to happen.

[billhilly]

McGovern was one of our best presidents in the last half of the 20th century.

[TitansAFC]

I think Mac has a shot at Michigan, though I am not sure he’s ahead right now. I have said that frustration with the Dem mcahine has reached a boiling oint after Kwame, and I stand by that statement.

However, I like the internals of this poll much better — it is far closer to actual exit polls/party turnout than many of the other polls.

Too many polls are doing their numbers by party registration — it needs to be done by likely party turnout, based on solid evidence.

That’s why I think McCain has a real shot at PA and an outside shot at MI. NH is looking better every day. (and where’s my ME CD-2 poll???!?!?!).

All said, Obama has blue turf to defend. After the NRO breakdown of VA, I no longer fear losing as much there. At worst Mac is 2-3 ahead instead of the 8 he should be.

Great news!

[PGalt]

“Independents” should go very strong for McCain/Palin. Zero is in big trouble in this criminal/socialist wrecked paradise.

Kwame, his mommy, Conyers, Levin, Stabenow, Grantheft, Michael Moron, etc., etc.

[Mamzelle]

I’ll bet Dearborn polls well for Hussein.

[Norman Bates]

I didn’t know that. Are they recent?

[Norman Bates]

I’m less worried about VA than I am about CO. If we pin down NH and ME’s 2nd CD, I’d feel fine. McCain and Palin should make at least two stops in ME, with the last one no more than a few days before election day.

[Darren McCarty]

East Dearborn maybe, and I’m not even so sure about that. A lot of Arabs do not care for blacks. Dearborn still has a large white union voting block as well. In fact, it’s still a white majority, but you’d never know that from FR which paints a whole different Dearborn than reality.

[cookcounty]

" I am starting to have the strangest feeling....that of winning Michigan which has the no.1 Liberal city in America, Detroit, in it."

But remember, Western Michigan is very conservative and has been for a very long time. Remember the 1964 Johnson landslide over Goldwater? Nationwide it was 60%-40% Johnson over Goldwater. But in Ottawa County, it was 60-40 Goldwater over Johnson.

[Seattle Conservative]

A FReeper posted a link to a PUMA site a week or 2 ago and I go over there every now and then to read what they're saying (most are very pro-McPalin and some are even working for the campaign).

I found this interesting and I thought that some of you that analyze polls may feel the same.

Here's 0bama's schedule. I was curious whether he's making so many stops in Michigan - 8 because it's a battleground state, his internals are telling him something or both. Note also 5 in Ohio, 3 in PA, 4 in NV, 4 in NM, 3 in CO, 3 in WI, 2 in IL. Guess he's given up on WV, VA, FL and NC, unless he sends Joey there and/or plans to go there after 10-29.

Tour Schedule

Wednesday, October 15th

10:00 AM – Sacramento, California Rally & News Conference

3:00 PM – Reno/Carson CIty, Nevada Rally & News Conference

Thursday, October 16th

9:00 AM – Elko, Nevada Rally & News Conference

3:30 PM – Ely, Nevada Rally & News Conference

Friday, October 17th

10:00 AM – Las Vegas, Nevada Rally & News Conference

5:00 PM – Flagstaff, Arizona Rally & News Conference

Saturday, October 18th

12:00 Noon – Gallup, New Mexico Rally & News Conference

4:00 PM – Albuquerque, New Mexico Rally & News Conference

7:00 PM – Santa Fe, New Mexico Rally & News Conference

Sunday, October 19th

9:00 AM – Raton, New Mexico Rally & News Conference

12:00 Noon – Pueblo, Colorado Rally & News Conference

3:00 PM – Colorado Springs, Colorado Rally & News Conference

6:00 PM – Denver, Colorado Rally & News Conference

Monday, October 20th

8:30 AM – Colby, Kansas Rally & News Conference

4:00 PM – Kansas City, Missouri Rally & News Conference

Tuesday, October 21st

9:00 AM – St. Louis, Missouri Rally & News Conference

12:30 PM – Springfield, Illinois Rally & News Conference

5:30 PM – Chicago, Illinois Rally & News Conference

Wednesday, October 22nd

10:00 AM – Madison, Wisconsin Rally & News Conference

2:00 PM – Milwaukee, Wisconsin Rally & News Conference

6:00 PM – Green Bay, Wisconsin Rally & News Conference

Thursday, October 23rd

9:00 AM – Iron Mountain, Michigan Rally & News Conference

12:30 PM – Marquette, Michigan Rally & News Conference

5:30 PM – Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan Rally & News Conference

Friday, October 24th

12:00 Noon – Alpena, Michigan Rally & News Conference

5:00 PM – Traverse City, Michigan Rally & News Conference

Saturday, October 25th

10:00 AM – Grand Rapids, Michigan Rally & News Conference

1:30 PM – Lansing, Michigan Rally & News Conference

5:30 PM – Detroit Area, Michigan Rally & News Conference

Sunday, October 26th

10:00 AM – Toledo, Ohio Rally & News Conference

2:30 PM – Dayton, Ohio Rally & News Conference

6:00 PM – Cincinnati, Ohio Rally & News Conference

Monday, October 27th

10:00 AM – Columbus, Ohio Rally & News Conference

3:30 PM – Cleveland, Ohio Rally & News Conference

Tuesday, October 28th

9:00 AM – Erie, Pennsylvania Rally & News Conference

2:30 PM – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Rally & News Conference

6:30 PM – Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Rally & News Conference

Wednesday, October 29th 12:00 Noon – Washington, D.C. Arrival

TBA – Press Conference with National Press Corps.

http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=31621

[Norman Bates]

I was about to say, what the HECK is McCain doing in AZ and IL on the campaign trail?

Good work. Nice map.

[Norman Bates]

Wow - three days in MI. 0bama is scared.

[Darren McCarty]

Obama's in trouble in North Michigan. That's what that schedule tells me. That is conservative, but democrat area.

Interesting, since I told McCain's camp to work up north hard. Obama must be seeing the same thing I am.