I think Mac has a shot at Michigan, though I am not sure he’s ahead right now. I have said that frustration with the Dem mcahine has reached a boiling oint after Kwame, and I stand by that statement.
However, I like the internals of this poll much better — it is far closer to actual exit polls/party turnout than many of the other polls.
Too many polls are doing their numbers by party registration — it needs to be done by likely party turnout, based on solid evidence.
That’s why I think McCain has a real shot at PA and an outside shot at MI. NH is looking better every day. (and where’s my ME CD-2 poll???!?!?!).
All said, Obama has blue turf to defend. After the NRO breakdown of VA, I no longer fear losing as much there. At worst Mac is 2-3 ahead instead of the 8 he should be.
Great news!
I’m less worried about VA than I am about CO. If we pin down NH and ME’s 2nd CD, I’d feel fine. McCain and Palin should make at least two stops in ME, with the last one no more than a few days before election day.