Posted on 09/22/2008 5:18:34 PM PDT by Publius804
Polling Methods May Tilt Obama Results, Exec Says Wednesday, September 17, 2008 7:31 PM
By: Ron Kessler
Most polls may be overstating Barack Obama’s support by 5 to 10 percentage points because those surveyed may not be telling the truth about voting for him, ad executive Gabe Joseph III tells Newsmax.
It is possible that, when live callers ask for a respondent’s name, the individual is more likely to say he will vote for Obama, says Joseph, president of ccAdvertising, which conducts polls for a range of candidates and members of Congress. When automated dialers do the polling, respondents are more likely to give an honest answer because they think of the poll as being anonymous.
“I believe the traditional pollsters, when they ask your name, institute a bias,” Joseph says. “We never ask anybody who they are. We do not have to. The only personal identification we obtain comes at the end of the survey when we ask about gender and age.”
The difference is apparent when automated pollster results are compared with traditional polls that ask the individual’s name, he says. In many circles, particularly within the traditional Democrat base, it is politically incorrect to tell a pollster the respondent will not vote for Obama, he says.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
This is called the “Bradley effect”, due to some election in recent years, where that phenomenon did occur. I believe it also occured during an election for David Dinkens in NYC.
Thanks, that’s what I get for skimming, LOL.
Heck, thats fine with me. People always get complacent when they are ahead and supportive when they are behind. Lets milk being the underdog :)
ding, ding ding...we have a winner!! THAT is EXACTLY why I don’t answer my phone when they call. Gallup and others have called before and I refuse to answer. IT IS NONE OF THEIR DAMN BUSINESS who I’m going to vote for!!
“”What “effect” do they call it when 95% of black peole make their election choice ONLY based on skin color?”
MSM PUBLIC polls are designed to garner ratings and candidate commercials.
Why else would ANYONE pay for a mere “registered voter” poll or just a “poll”
imagine the ratings if it was candidate X is up by 40 points...
Check the positive negative numbers on these candidates, that is a much more reliable indicator of where the candidates supports stands, especially in the state polls.
Ortega had a huge lead in all the polls, but when the brave Nicaraguans went behind the polling curtain, they overwhelmingly threw out Ortega. Thus, The Sandinista Effect.
BTW, this is why the unions want to remove secret ballots via Card Check. As a former union member, I was "talked to" about my voting preferences. About 60% of my union voted for the Republican candidates for President, but sent in the $300 to the local to be used for access on the national scene. It was just the cost of doing business.
Yea, why don’t you get to it and write the article! I’ve been looking for it!
-if they have your phone number chances are they already know your name.
Don’t forget Zogby’s Special Sauce as a factor.
All right. Tomorrow. Promise!
I haven't seen too many of those. What's the overall picture nationally and in the critical states (CO, VA, FL, OH, PA, MI, WI, MN)?
Two States who have recently elected DEM Senator's (state-wide election) as well as reelected DEM Governor's (even a completely inept one by all accounts in Gramholm / MI).
As for the "bradley effect", that is nothing more than a "wish for" at this time for the Obama camp. There has never been a Black candidate at the top of the ticket before to see if this remains true.......And I do not believe at all, for one minute, that it will reach anywhere near 3-5%. Possibly 1% tops (in key States).
RCP average of polls is a quality sample (in total). Right now we are down in CO (which means we lose this election). We are also down in PA and MI.
This election will be settled by these 3/4 States. OH,CO,PA and MI. If McCain loses OH or CO he will play hell winning. That is the bottom line. Understanding the battle map and what we face is the best way to take on one's opponents.
;)
Part of what I call the “conservative effect”. Unlike loud-mouth liberals, our attitude in general is precisely what you said “Noneyer dayum bizness. That’s why we have secret ballots!” Also explains why exit polls are always skewed left.
“Why else would ANYONE pay for a mere “registered voter” poll or just a “poll””
Registered voter polls are always more favorable to Democrats than likely voter polls are. Combine the biased poll with an upbeat story about the Democrat and a smear piece on the Republican and have a typical propaganda piece.
Before asking about any of my opinions he started going through this long list of questions about my residence, age, etc. When he got to the question where he asked about my income, I'd had enough. For all I knew he was a burglar down the street. I hung up, and have never agreed to any pollster since then.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.