Posted on 09/22/2008 7:10:03 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 265 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 273 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 260.79 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
McCain’s best hope is to flip Minnisota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin to his side.
If the traders are correct,....................
Gee, they’ve been spot-on till now, haven’t they? Especially last week/sarc.
Colonel, USAFR
UGH! I hate Wayne County deciding for the whole rest of the state every election!
If he doesn’t, we could be effed.
Sorry, “whole rest of the state” would be Michigan.
It’s coming down to holding Colorado. Bambi’s strategy depends on turning NM, IA, and CO blue. He will succeed with NM and IA. We need to prevail in CO.
They haven't been correct lately, have they?
Nice overview of the mental health status of our nation.
Geeze.
If Obama wins, can we blame the speculators?............
yep
hold colorado and its over for bambi
we have to fight like hell there
but bambi has to fight for MI WI and PENN i think
If the traders are correct, all he has to do is keep what he’s got and flip New Hampshire. It’s lighter blue than PA...
Especially at Lehman Brothers..................
McCain will win PA. End of discussion.
McC is way up in Flor...for one example, 70,000 came yesterday to see/hear “Sarah” - Plugs got 2,000.
That tells a lot more than any polls or projections.
GO SARAH!
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