Posted on 09/16/2008 1:30:41 PM PDT by Dawnsblood
The post-convention national polls mostly show John McCain with a small lead over Barack Obama. But what's been happening in the states? I've been looking at the post-convention state polls at realclearpolitics.com, pollster.com, and fivethirtyeight.com and find some significant differences from pre-convention polls. They tend to suggest that the battlefield is shifting, with more states within McCain's reach and fewer within Obama's.
Some caution is in order: We're talking about only one or two polls in some states but as many as eight in ultracritical Ohio. I haven't included the Zogby Internet polls in my analysis. I've rounded off the averages in each state to full percentages (and rounded 0.5s downwards for both candidates), and I'm reporting the difference between the McCain percentage and Obama percentage. Here's my analysis:
The big industrial states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are Obama +2, Ohio is McCain +3. In each case, McCain is 1 point better than Bush's final percentage against Kerry in each state. An old rule of American politics is that economic distress moves voters toward Democrats. Michigan, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania are in economic distress. But they haven't moved toward the Democratic nominee, as compared with 2004. The old rule isn't operating. Here's another possible rule. When voters see that tax increases aren't producing a better economy, they don't move toward a Democratic nominee who is proposing higher taxes, even though he says they'll hit only the rich. In Michigan, the Democrats (with a few turncoat Republicans) raised taxes in 2007; in Ohio, the Republicans (with some Democratic support) raised taxes before 2006. Those tax increases haven't helped those states' economies, not so as you'd notice, though they've helped members of public employees unions.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
Still working overtime for your Obamessiah, huh?
Oh, that's right, I forgot. You want a "Country First" yard sign, but can't find one. Then when I provide you a link, you don't even thank me! I'm hurt, deeply hurt.
Go read the article and get depressed.
“Higher taxes destroy jobs”
Good - let’s eliminate tax breaks for the entertainment industry and cut taxes for everyone else.
“Those tax increases haven’t helped those states’ economies, not so as you’d notice, though they’ve helped members of public employees unions.”
You got that right. The bureaucrat socialist pigs in Michigan are living high. Stayed recently at a motel in Grayling. MI, and Granholm’s state thieves were attending a pork conference. The lot was filled with new or nearly new pick-ups, SUVs and expensive autos.
And the liberals and RINOs in this hellhole state want higher taxes.
Then we hear the idiot voters complain there’s no jobs.
Negatism, Pessism, doom & gloom sums up your posting history in relation to the McCain/Palin race for the WhiteHouse. (I know that’s a racist name and you’d prefer to see it repainted & renamed The Global House of Multi-cultural something).
If you want to be depressed about Obama sinking, go ahead and read/post at DU or KOS instead of bringing everyone down with you. And take that Cat of yours with you (assuming you can find it)
Note: My Pit Bull has a giant hairball dangleing off her lipsticked face and she
just swallowed something really big! Skat!
The fact that I've been here for almost 8 years and have voted for GWB (twice) and plan to vote for McCain-Palin (for what little good it would do in CA) I guess means nothing. I don't mind the "trending" discussions. I loathe the "it's in the bag" comments.
You're an awfully negative poster. I've also noted that you tend to say the same (negative) thing on several threads. Your screen name is fitting. (Although, IMO, it should be blahblahblah.) [So there.]
Here, everyone: bahblahbah's whining on every thread
See my Post 46. I agree with JennysCool: I believe we have a “concern troll” here ...
>> I believe we have a “concern troll” here ...
Never a response to those that disagree, either. Just hit and run “concern”.
Well, now I know.
And most of us don't. As we've told you repeatedly. Yet your posts are the same. And then you're hurt when people question your sincerity? Well, I'm hurt that you didn't thank me for finding you that yard sign.
I hope Michael is right in his conclusions. It still is a very tight race. But he is a walking encyclopedia of political and election knowledge. I will be eager to hear his predictions, if he makes them, closer to election day.
I was tempted to make the trip to DC for the panel discussion on the election at American Enterprise Inst. this week. Mr Barone is one of the panelists and he is always interesting to listen to. Maybe I will go to the next election session they are having next month. That will be just 10 days or so before election day.
“I see McCain as competitive or leading in states with 342 electoral votes. Advantage shifting toward McCain.”
The only Kool-Aid drinkers are the libtards who think the Muslim militant is going to win.
It’s going to come down to CO and VA.
Glad McCain is ahead then.
No, it means nothing. You can claim all you like, but all you post is nonsense drivel. You obviously don’t read articles, just jump in and complain and moan. Then you get your widdle bitty feelings hurt. Awwwww.
Beat it if you can’t defend yourself. Don’t need no milquetoast pansies clogging up the internet.
Yep, another close election.
Rasmussen Poll
Nationally, 63% say that McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama.
Expect McCain to pull even further ahead.
BUMP!!
Obama has 45% who say he is not prepared. I don’t see how he can win.
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