Size starts to matter: Ohio gives McCain-Palin a big crowd

Pittsburgh Tribune Review ^ | September 16, 2008 | Salena Zito

[Salena Zito]

VIENNA, OHIO -- You have to wonder with just 49 days left until election day, what is Sen. John McCain doing in Ohio's Mahoning Valley again?

It's not like there is a history of Republicans winning here. George W. Bush was only able to muster a little more than 36 percent of the vote in 2004, up 1 percent from 2000, when Bush went against Al Gore.

This rust-belt, blue-collar community with a heavy Democratic voter registration advantage has seen better times -- the steel industry is gone, replaced by a lower income service industry. The medium income hovers at $23,000 a year and nearly 30 percent of the residents live below the poverty line -- not exactly a Republican fertile area.

[kesg]

That field varies from state to state. It is better to spend resources in those states where the race is tight or close. Forget states like New York or New Jersey. And I don't think McCain is so stupid that he would spend much time in Kahlifohrneeya.

My understanding is that the professionals have a chart of sorts -- something like the one that tells football coaches when to go for the two point conversion -- about what states to comapaign in. It is all tied to the candidate's lead in the national polls, as well as recent actual election history.

NJ really isn't in play for McCain unless he is leading by about 9 points nationally. In reality, he is probably leading by about 4-5 points among likely voters -- enough to put NJ in play (as evidenced by recent polling there) but not yet enough to justify McCain pouring any significant resources into that state. And if he is leading nationally by a large enough margin to make NJ as close as two or three points, he is already leading in enough states to get him the 270 EV he needs anyway.

So, McCain is best off consolidating his gains in places like Ohio and taking the fight to Obama in places that are purple or barely blue (such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and especially Michigan). In a three point election like 2004, these states are barely blue. But in a five or six point election, these states will turn red (albeit barely) and NJ will turn very light blue or even purple.

[stripes1776]

Why was it so close in 2000? Joe Lieberman.

Exactly. That was all the more reason for the Bush team to spend more time in FL. What was Lieberman's appeal in GA, AL, MS, SC, NC, VA, WV, TN, KY, TX, OK? Not so great as in FL.

[stripes1776]

So, McCain is best off consolidating his gains in places like Ohio and taking the fight to Obama in places that are purple or barely blue (such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and especially Michigan). In a three point election like 2004, these states are barely blue. But in a five or six point election, these states will turn red (albeit barely) and NJ will turn very light blue or even purple.

Excellent analysis.

[PennsylvaniaMom]

JohnnyMc mentioned the Babs Streisand soiree?!?!?!?! Wow...that just makes me smile...way to score to points. One of those dinners is more than a years college (at a state school)...the rust belter is struggling and ‘our’ savior is munching arugala and listening to show tunes at the Beverly Wilshire. Real ‘in touch’ with America.

[kesg]

Thanks.

[Political Junkie Too]

Incomes come in small, medium or large. Whats your point?

Which one does a newspaper editor get?

-PJ

[PaleoBob]

I just hope they don’t start getting distracted by NY, CA, NJ, WA, OR and the like.

Exactly. In 2000, Bush spent too much time in CA under the delusion

---

No, no, no. You have to pick some strongholds of the opponent to attack so as to force them to defend. Make them spend time and money on their entrenched areas. Otherwise, they are free to spend all their time on your ground.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

You’ve got the right idea. I know it’s a popular thought to hunker down in CO, OH, VA, NV, and FL, but cmon, defense wins playoff games, not elections. Take the fight to them and let the other side play defense. And right now, the best places for to do that are PA, MI, MN, WI, NH, WA, and OR.

[stripes1776]

No, no, no. You have to pick some strongholds of the opponent to attack so as to force them to defend. Make them spend time and money on their entrenched areas. Otherwise, they are free to spend all their time on your ground.

If your opponent spends all his time on your ground, he will loose in the battle ground states.

[Tuxedo]

I sorta agree - hold on to OH, NV, CO, VA, and FL. But also campaign in MI and PA. The others are somewhat of a reach. I would cross my fingers on MN and WI, hope a bit on NH and NM. But WA and OR (along with IA) are goners. Go where Hillary waxed Obama (except NY and CA) and we will be fine.

[sleddogs]

Just got back fro the Rally.

One word

AWESOME

On a side note, on the way to the rally we via Kings Graves Road. And I seen 3 “Democrat for MacCain Palin” signs. LOL

[hinckley buzzard]

This is yellow-dog democrat country (Mahoning and Trumbull counties). And not close to any concentration of Republicans. The crowd as reported is significant.

[hinckley buzzard]

This is yellow-dog democrat country (Mahoning and Trumbull counties). And not close to any concentration of Republicans. The crowd as reported is significant.

[hinckley buzzard]

Plastic Surgeons love the Obama Crowd...have you seen Biden...scarey...he is beginning to look like Joan Rivers

When he disappeared for about a week there I thought he was drying out. Maybe it was a dose of botox and the tanning salon...

[nascarnation]

LOL
As a 60 yr old myself, I can’t understand the obsession of “men” with hair plugs and eye tucks.

[ari-freedom]

last night a fellow freeper was concerned that Obama’s new strategy, borrowed from clinton, that mccain is out of touch. Now that may work for a dude from a town called Hope but not for a metrosexual from Honolulu! When I read that Obama would go to Babs, I saw the winning line from a mile away

[PaleoBob]

I think McCain could win NJ. Look at Qunnipiac. NJ is inside the margin at this point, I’m pretty sure.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

I think he could win there too, but it would be because he is cruising to victory nationwide and not because of whatever is going on in NJ.

[Texas4ever]

It’s all grassroots stuff...the people before have a picnic...John, Cindy and Sarah and Todd? join later and eat later...Have a country band before...good stufff

American as apple pie!...OH ya pie contest andyone?

[RocketMan1]

If Bush had been ahead 5 points, the MSM would not have had any motivation to call the race early. The vote was close./i>

I have family that lived in Pensacola in 2000. They are hard-core Republicans, and they were standing in line to vote at 6:15 that night. They said that almost everyone in line left and didn't vote when hey heard the news that Florida was called for Algoron. This was confirmed at numerous other polling places. The hilarious thing about it all (hilarious .. not in a HA HA way) is how much crap went on in Palm Beach for weeks all because those retards claimed they couldn't punch an idiotic card and yet hundreds or thousands of votes were lost because the Liberals on TV (and FOX too to be fair) called the race early!