Posted on 09/15/2008 12:52:45 PM PDT by Darren McCarty
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
46% McCain (R)
50% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided
Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground. One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.
In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.
(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...
McCain is only down 5 in NEW YORK, nobody really believes Obama is ahead in VA.
All other polls give McCain a 4 to 5 point lead.
Obama is sinking everywhere, but we should always fight like we're behind.
Everything is trending that way. Obama has been going down since July.
This poll appears to skewed toward the DC suburbs.
Take a look at which television stations were involved in the polling. Then take a look at a list of the 10 largest cities in Virginia:Virginia Beach, 438,415; Norfolk, 231,954; Chesapeake, 218,968; Arlington, 195,965; Richmond, 193,777; Newport News, 179,899; Hampton, 145,579; Alexandria, 135,337; Portsmouth, 100,169; Roanoke, 92,631
Unless someone is polling Tidewater, then the results would not be surprising. Tidewater is made up of Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Newport News, Hampton, and Portsmouth.
Guess who lives in Tidewater? Military, military, and more military.
No Tidewater television station is involved in this polling. Unless the other stations are polling Tidewater this would have to be considered a deliberate attempt to mislead the public.
Again, I don't know whether they polled Tidewater or not, but none of the stations are from that area.
Having reviewed their methodology, they refer to "Southeast Virginia" but don't define what that is. Furthermore, they report that in "Southeast Virginia" Obama is polling 56% to McCain 40%. This would be incomprehensible to me given all the military in Tidewater. Why didn't they involve a Tidewater television station? Did they actually poll Tidewater? I have my doubts and the answers cannot be had by looking at their methodology.
Wilder effect? Naw, not in Virginia. Oh...wait...Wilder was from Virginia. Never mind.
Anyone who believes that Obama has a chance of winning this elections is a delusional fool.
BTTT
SurveyUSA has not been “the most democrat.” In fact, back in the primaries, it was the only poll to consistently show McCain doing well against all the Dems. I think it is pretty reliable, and I think McCain’s two biggest worries are CO and VA.
It is delusional fools, then, that are betting at Intrade that Obama has a 40% chance of winning Virginia. Those are the types of fools that go separate ways with their money.
LLS
Keep praying and stop calling names, get off your keyboard and go to the pubbie headquarters, donate time and money, be hopeful and helpful.
Whining doesn't get it done, give us some help.
BTW, compare it with the latest poll results from New York, of all places! (Not that I believe that, either.)
McC just has to get in some jabs about experience, Ayers, Wright, etc. Once America gets a look at this guy in all his glory, they're gonna turn away in droves.
And then if theyre asked by a black pollster, then they definitely feel too uncomfortable to admit theyre not voting for the black guy.
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It’s a shame we have so many wimpy voters.
Wilder effect on this poll. We will also see the Wilder effect on the exit polls the day of the election and will need to wait until the actual votes are counted.
North Carolina
McCain +20
Virginia
Obama +4
Neither of those is accurate: NC is closer and McCain leads VA. In 2004, Bush won NC by 12.44% and VA by 8.20%, a little over 4% difference. Virginia has moved closer to the Democrats, but not 24 points away from NC.
Do you think the internals in this poll are reliable? That McCain and Obama are tied in Virginia among men? That one in six GOP voters in the state are supporting Obama?
The Dems won two high profile races in Virginia in the past couple of years, Webb and Kaine. In both cases the election was a squeaker. In both cases the Dems ran as moderate-to-conservative Democrats (something Obama can’t get away with). In both cases, conservative Republicans were disenchanted and didn’t turn out in great numbers. In this race, Palin has rallied the base unlike any candidacy since Reagan.
It would be arrogant for McCain to simply presume he’ll carry Virginia, but I don’t see much chance for Obama to win it. There simply aren’t enough blacks or white Northern Virginia leftists to carry the state, especially in a presidential race where the Dem candidate can’t mask his leftism, and where the GOP base is motivated.
One of the greatest games I’ve ever watched. McCarty settles a score against Turtle, and then scores the winning goal in Overtime.
You have no idea how helpful I’ve been. And as far as name calling, didn’t you just call me a whiner, lol.
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