Posted on 09/15/2008 12:52:45 PM PDT by Darren McCarty
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
46% McCain (R)
50% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided
Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground. One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.
In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.
(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...
Nobody polled me. I guess they know I’m voting Republican.
That is screwy. No way McCain is only getting 80% of Republican vote and Obama is getting 87% of the Democrat vote, yet Indies break GOP. No way.
Check Intrade. Money don’t lie. McCain has gone from 44% to 52% in the last week.
McCain’s got a western ticket and we are seeing a surge in Minnesota 45-45 and Washington State 49-47, both from six furlongs behind last month. This will start to tell in New Mexico and Colorado as well. He’s got white women coming over and so is in the game in Michigan and Pennsylvania and has even moved within five points in New York. Anything can happen particularly with the wild events on Wall Street, but McCain has got the whip hand in this race with the sharp-eyed Palin riding shotgun.
Take a look at which television stations were involved in the polling. Then take a look at a list of the 10 largest cities in Virginia:Virginia Beach, 438,415; Norfolk, 231,954; Chesapeake, 218,968; Arlington, 195,965; Richmond, 193,777; Newport News, 179,899; Hampton, 145,579; Alexandria, 135,337; Portsmouth, 100,169; Roanoke, 92,631
Unless someone is polling Tidewater, then the results would not be surprising. Tidewater is made up of Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Newport News, Hampton, and Portsmouth.
Guess who lives in Tidewater? Military, military, and more military.
No Tidewater television station is involved in this polling. Unless the other stations are polling Tidewater this would have to be considered a deliberate attempt to mislead the public.
Again, I don't know whether they polled Tidewater or not, but none of the stations are from that area.
No way they are even among men. This poll is BS. And if anyone thinks Obama is winning VA, they are dreaming.
“”I just have to laugh at the Freepers who truly believe that McCain is going to walk away with this election, even talking in terms of a landslide. I have yet to see McCain get close to a solid Electoral majority, and I think it stays that way right up to Election Day. “”
I just have to laugh at the Freepers who truly believe that Obama has a chance in this election, even talking in terms that voter fraud by ACORN will make the differece.
I have yet to see any evidence Obama has nullified the Bradley/Dinkins/Wilder effect. In races for Governor black Demoracts underperform their polling numbers in general elections anywhere from 5-18% 95% of the time.
This election for President is even higher stakes, we are picking not only an executive but in essence a our tribal leader.
Save for a serious October surpise, like a video showing McCain in a KKK grand wizard outfit having sex with an underage black girl, the McCain/Palin campaign have this election in the bag.
I think the Bradley effect also kicks on the Muslim Question.
Obama would be wise to finally address this issue openly. It is not racist to say he has a Muslim middle name, because he does. The Media can call Palin White Trash, but we cannot say Hussein.
Large numbers of people attend church on Sunday evening in the South.
The internals of this poll are absurd. There’s no way McCain is tied with Obama among men in Virginia, no way he leads by only one among voters over age 50, and no way Obama is getting 17% of the Republican vote in a southern state. He wouldn’t come close to getting that much even in a state like Vermont or Maine where many of the Republicans are moderates.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults... 817 were registered to vote... 732 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters81% likely voters, 91% registered voters, 9% not registered to vote.
I don't expect a landslide, although I'll do my part to make sure this election is a real steal by poll watching.
NOT a real steal..
I so wish she was at the top of the ticket. Try as she might, there is just no way she can build much enthusiasm for McCain. Plus, they are now watering her down to make her views appear to be more consistent with McCain's. I know it's how the game needs to be played, but it's very depressing watching her begin to compromise her views (e.g. global warming).
Why poll people who aren't registered in a poll about an election?
McCain may very well win pretty well across the board with small majorities. Wide support, but not deep.
That’s my prediction.
I think McCain will get possibly up to 54% of the vote, but will win an electoral landslide of 350+ electoral votes.
The polls is definitely screwy. McCain lost 6 points among males and 2 points among white voters in a week. He also lost 5 points among Republicans in a week where Republican ID was up nationally. It just doesn’t add up.
I love where we are in Missouri and Florida. Despite this poll, I think we are in very good shape in Virginia and Ohio. Nevada has been moving strongly in our direction as well.
That leaves Colorado as the last remaining question mark "must win" state. If we open up a lead there, and I think we will as more time passes since the RAT convention was held there, then Obama's chances of becoming POTUS will be hanging by a thread.
Anyone who believes that Obama has a chance of winning this elections is a delusional fool.
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