Posted on 09/12/2008 4:57:16 AM PDT by 11th_VA
PRINCETON, NJ -- A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
(snip)
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Generics are one thing. Show me the races we win. Northup trailing in KY; Heather Wilson’s seat is probably gone; last poll, Lincoln Diaz-Balart was trailing in FL. Show me a single pickup.
Breaking even not only will not happen, we will be lucky if ALL we lose is 5 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House. Thanks to dreadful recruitment on the Senate side, we have only 1 remotely competitive race we’re running against a Dem incumbent (LA-Landrieu), and we’re trailing. They could actually win TEN of ours. It’s just that bad.
Last week, I did an analysis of where the competitive and at-risk seats are:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2074544/posts?page=25#25
Post #42 will link you.
Were at a disadvantage. Just like the Pubbies were at a disadvantage in polling.
The RNC is crushing the DNC in fundraising. (The RNC recently raised $17 million in 2-3 days.) However, the reverse is true for the NRSC vs. its Dem counterpart. But Palin's got 30 fundraisers scheduled before the election. McCain raised $5 million in one night. And now that the GOP is looking competitive nationwide, you can safely expect the positive GOP trends to continue.
That data may be even more outdated than I suspected. They’re listing Murtha as running unopposed. His opponent, Bill Russell, has to this point raised $2 million.
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"Superman! The world needs your help!"
"Don't worry, Ron. You've done enough. I'll take it from here."
But remember, we’re not running a generic (or parliamentary) battle for Congress. These are individual races with individual candidates. That’s what I took into consideration along with polling data for many of them. Obviously it can still change in the next 2 months, but we really failed spectacularly in this cycle with recruitment. Very poor leadership from the Republican Congressional leaders.
There was another GOP candidate in Georgia who has substantially outraised a Dem incumbent, but I don’t have it on the competitive races for the same reasons I don’t have Murtha’s seat listed. Those are majority Dem districts, Murtha’s especially was SPECIFICALLY tailor-made for him by the PA GOP legislature in order to make GOP seats elsewhere. That fortune would be better used against Altmire in the 4th with former incumbent Melissa Hart seeking a rematch. That IS a GOP district. As for the one in Georgia, that’s a Black Democrat district. Zero chance of our winning it, even if the GOP challenger raised $100 million.
I’m not arguing that the climate has been very poor (look at the three special elections). Or that some normally good candidates understandably sat out this time around. Who can blame them? I’m simply saying that things are improving, and likely will continue to improve. Half the battle in politics in getting people to believe their candidate can win. Or convincing them the “invincible” opponent can lose.
TX-22
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(Johnstown, PA) - The fund raising effort of Johnstown resident and Republican nominee for Congress Bill Russell continues to outpace most congressional candidates not only in Pennsylvania but across the country. According to campaign manager Peg Luksik, "William Russell for Congress has raised $2 million to date, with over $200,000 coming in the last 2 weeks from an online drive."
"The incredible story about Bill's campaign is that the $15 and $25 contributions are coming in from all over Pennsylvania and every corner of the country," said Luksik. "This is K-Street versus Main Street. These are patriotic families expressing support for soldiers, sailors and Marines, and people saying they've had enough of the old 'pay-to-play' culture in the Capitol. That's what's fueling this campaign." Russell, who has only been able to actively campaign since August 1st, said, "There's something really special going on in this race. We really have a chance against an entrenched incumbent to bring real change and accountability to the district." Russell also announced a new television commercial titled "Defend-Our-Heroes" which will debut on TV stations across the district on September 12th. The commercial uses incumbent Congressman John Murtha's own words when he called Marines in Haditha, Iraq "Cold-Blooded Murderers." Bill Russell is a retired Lt. Colonel having served in the U.S. Army for 28 years including six tours in hostile fire zones. His deployments include Operation Desert Storm, Kosovo and most recently Operation Iraqi Freedom. More information on the Russell for Congress Campaign including upcoming events, Bill's personal information, his position statement on the issues, as well as the latest TV commercials and other features are available at www.russellbrigade.com
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Russell's Haditha commercial is powerful! I expect it will result in even more money for him. But yes, against Murtha he's still got to be considered an underdog. But no underdog who raises $2 million can be completely dismissed, especially in a district where Bush took 48% during the last Presidential election.
I actually saw today, via a PA GOP E-mail, where Melissa Hart was within three points of Altmire. As you showed above, though, she’s trailing in money. However, she is helped by being very well known (held the seat until 06).
Here is where much more focused work needs to be done. It is CRUCIAL.
OH please Lord deliever us from Nancy Pelosi.
TEll the RNC TO RUN AN ADVERTISEMENT - “HAVE YOU SEEN THE PRICE OF GAS? HAVE YOU SEEN THE PRICE OF FOOD? What they have in common is they have all gone up because of Democrat policies. They want the price of gas higher and that is killing the airlines, raising food costs and making it harder for you to pay for what you need!! End the policies of the Democrats by electing the people who want lower prices, more gas and lower taxes too.”
Real bad news for BO.
My first thought after reading the headline was seeing Pelosi give up the gavel would be even sweeter than when Daschle or Fort Worthless Jim gave it up. (Please, God... please.)
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