But remember, we’re not running a generic (or parliamentary) battle for Congress. These are individual races with individual candidates. That’s what I took into consideration along with polling data for many of them. Obviously it can still change in the next 2 months, but we really failed spectacularly in this cycle with recruitment. Very poor leadership from the Republican Congressional leaders.
I’m not arguing that the climate has been very poor (look at the three special elections). Or that some normally good candidates understandably sat out this time around. Who can blame them? I’m simply saying that things are improving, and likely will continue to improve. Half the battle in politics in getting people to believe their candidate can win. Or convincing them the “invincible” opponent can lose.