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Texas Hot Air taking wind/moisture out of Hurricane Ike
Vanity/National Hurricane Center 5 pm EDT Forecast Discussion #43 on Hurricane Ike ^ | September 11, 2008 | Vanity

Posted on 09/11/2008 6:57:55 PM PDT by topher

There is technical information in the National Hurricane Center FORECAST Discussion on Hurricanes/Tropical Storms/Tropical Depressions. This is based on FORECAST DISCUSSION #43 at 5 PM EDT on Hurricane Ike (2008).

In terms of Hurricane Ike, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) stated that a HIGH PRESSURE system over Texas was causing problems to Hurricane Ike. Sapping the strenght of a Hurricane -- especially for the people in the path of the Hurricane -- is a good thing.

The High Pressure System over Texas (simply put -- a lot of lot air and dryness) is keeping the Northern, NorthWestern, and Western side of Hurricane Ike DRIER and robbing the Hurricane of moisture.

It is clear from the current (September 11, 2008 Afternoon and Evening) images, that Hurricane Ike is strongest in the Southeastern Quadrant and has a very LOPSIDED formation.

Apparently, from the discussion, this, among other factors, is keeping the STRENGTH or INTENSITY of Hurricane Ike down -- helping to keep it in the range of a Category 2 storm when in fact it is a storm that is almost consuming the entire Gulf of Mexico by its size.

This might be another Texas Tall Tale, but maybe TEXANS are blowing part of Hurricane Ike away -- as in the tradition of PECOS BILL!!!

The following is the EXCERPT from the 5PM EDT DISCUSSION on Hurricane Ike by the NHC:

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED... CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

Of course, the phrase the NHC uses is An Upper-Level Ridge over Texas that is forcing the descent and creating dry air ahead of the path of the Hurricane.

I guess the bottom line is HOT DRY AIR over the state of Texas has the effect of causing problems -- even for a Texas-sized Hurricane...

Those Texas and their bragging... Maybe that the source of all of that hot air...


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: hurricaneike; hurricanes; ike; nhc; pecosbill; weather
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First, I should state that I am not an expert on the study of weather... But after reading a number of these forecast discussions, I think I am able to interpret at least some of the data...

There is some cause, perhaps, to put this in the humor section -- except that I believe it to be based on fact. The High Pressure system over Texas is literally reducing the strength of Hurricane Ike

Note that the information from the 5 PM EDT DISCUSSION will be updated at 11 PM EDT and is updated each 6 hours (at least) as long as the storm is a threat -- Hurricane, Tropical Storm, or Tropical Depression...

1 posted on 09/11/2008 6:57:55 PM PDT by topher
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To: topher
Oops!

Those Texas [Texans] and their bragging... Maybe that the source of all of that hot air...

2 posted on 09/11/2008 7:00:04 PM PDT by topher (Let us return to old-fashioned morality - morality that has stood the test of time...)
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To: topher

So global warming not only can giveth hurricanes but can taketh them away as well? :P


3 posted on 09/11/2008 7:01:02 PM PDT by MAD-AS-HELL (How does one win over terrorists? KILL them with UNKINDNESS)
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To: MAD-AS-HELL

We had coastal flooding in the Tampa area because of this storm. Those texans better be full of hot air to push that surge back.


4 posted on 09/11/2008 7:05:31 PM PDT by driftdiver (No More Obama - The corruption has not changed despite all our hopes.)
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To: topher

All you Freepers who said bad things about this Houston Rat should realize that for
once, you're wrong!

5 posted on 09/11/2008 7:05:46 PM PDT by Zakeet (Crime wouldn't pay if the government ran it)
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To: topher

It’s Chuck Norris blowing at the storm.


6 posted on 09/11/2008 7:07:07 PM PDT by dfwgator ( Go OSU, beat USC!)
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To: MAD-AS-HELL
Do we know that?

We have only had computers and satellites to track hurricanes for about 40 years.

And the computer modeling of Hurricanes was very primitive in 1970 -- as a $10 million in 1970 might be placed in the size of a dime today...

For example, some of the Hurricanes in the early part of the 2oth Century did not have names but just the year and where it hit. [We are in the 21st Century now -- A Brave New World!)...

7 posted on 09/11/2008 7:09:31 PM PDT by topher (Let us return to old-fashioned morality - morality that has stood the test of time...)
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To: driftdiver
... Those texans better be full of hot air to push that surge back.

Amen! And, in all seriousness, I hope that God looks over Texas (and Louisiana/Mexico) in the next couple of days and reduce the damage...

8 posted on 09/11/2008 7:11:42 PM PDT by topher (Let us return to old-fashioned morality - morality that has stood the test of time...)
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To: topher

The Weather Channel just reported an eye appears to be reforming as shown by the satellite imagery.


9 posted on 09/11/2008 7:12:23 PM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it!)
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To: Man50D
That is bad news... But the NHC was saying that Hurricane Ike was headed for cooler water (and does get shallow around Corpus Christi/Galveston/Port Arthur/Lake Charles [Louisiana]/Vermillion Bay [Louisiana].

So hopefully the shallow, cooler water will help keep this from becoming Cat 3 or perhaps Cat 4.

And, on a more serious note, there are a significant number of oil refineries and oil production facilities in the path of this storm...

Tomorrow morning -- if the price of oil goes up AND gasoline, it might mean the SMART MONEY on Wall Street believes this storm will do significant damage...

10 posted on 09/11/2008 7:17:47 PM PDT by topher (Let us return to old-fashioned morality - morality that has stood the test of time...)
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To: everyone

Important update coming @ 10pm CST


11 posted on 09/11/2008 7:23:16 PM PDT by Texas_Jarhead
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To: Zakeet

Egads! What spews from that mouth can take down Ike and Katrina combined.


12 posted on 09/11/2008 7:23:35 PM PDT by itsthejourney (Sarah-cuda IS the right reason)
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To: Texas_Jarhead
Just got this in my email from CNN breaking news:

"People sheltering at ground level at Galveston Bay when Hurricane Ike hits face "certain death," the weather service warns."

13 posted on 09/11/2008 7:24:41 PM PDT by blondee123 (Vote for the HERO, not the ZERO! Is PRESENT a vote???)
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To: topher
It still is predicted to make landfall as a Category 3.

From the discussion:

Indeed... convection on the west side of Ike has been rather thin for much of the day. However...this latter upper feature is forecast to slide northeastward as Ike enters the northwestern Gulf...and in this configuration would provide an upper pattern more conducive to strengthening right before landfall.

Because of the very large expanse of hurricane force winds...Ike will create a storm surge well in excess of what would normally be associated with a storm of its intensity.

Ike is very close to making landfall. Even if the hurricane weakens some before then and the winds are not as much of an issue, the storm surge is still to be reckoned with.

Don't get your hopes up. In meteorology you can't count on anything.

14 posted on 09/11/2008 7:28:28 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: topher
Not that I wish anyone hurricane harm, but I'm darn disappointed in the predicted path.

I wanted the remnants to dump rain on AZ, and it's curling north and east after it hits shore. Dang it!

15 posted on 09/11/2008 7:30:13 PM PDT by FlyVet
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To: metmom

Only a few Texans such as Sheila Jackson Lee spout hot air; the rest of us simply announce the truth about God’s country in voices loud enough for all to hear!


16 posted on 09/11/2008 7:33:08 PM PDT by T Baden
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To: topher

This storm is packing a lot of water in the form of surges....... That will be the most devastating thing to come from it most likely. The following from the forecast:


Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes
landfall...except at the heads of bays...where surge flooding of up
to 25 feet could occur. Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
waves...can be expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the northern Gulf Coast. Above normal tides in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico should gradually subside over the next day or so.
end snip


17 posted on 09/11/2008 7:34:41 PM PDT by deport ( ----Cue Spooky Music---)
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To: topher

“TEXANS are blowing”

Color me unsurprised!


18 posted on 09/11/2008 7:40:06 PM PDT by ExpatGator (Extending logic since 1961.)
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To: deport

We’re heading for a full moon on the 15th but I understand that it usually doesn’t affect the Gulf tides the same way it does the ocean tides.

So what’s the tide expected to be Sat morning along the TX coast? High or low and what’s the difference in feet between them?


19 posted on 09/11/2008 7:43:22 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: dfwgator
It’s Chuck Norris blowing at the storm..

Not sure about that, but I won't be standing near you for the foreseeable future. I accidentally got kicked in the jaw once, Once!

20 posted on 09/11/2008 7:53:43 PM PDT by BallyBill (Serial Hit-N-Run poster)
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