Posted on 09/11/2008 2:04:44 PM PDT by sunmars
Rasmussen...not credible
RM spider
OSMR spiders
C D B D I’s.......
I am in PA and I am not crossing it out yet. When Bush ran, PA was a given as a loss. Not this time. But of course we have to wade through the corruption in Philly and the dead voters there.
Darn. I was hoping this would be closer. We really need to flip Mi or Pa to give us some breathing room. I live in PA and know lots of folks who usually vote dem but won’t vote fo Obama. I think it will closer here than in 00 or 04 but not sure it will be enough.
He does, to his credit, admit that a surge in GOP registration lately won't show-up for three months, but it does not stop the data problems.
Rasmussen has shown, essentially, a negative bounce in PA, MI, and VA, and essentially no bounce at all nationally.
Just based on a general atmosphere of the electorate - I think using three month old registration data is bad, and I think that - despite Rasmussen's polls - there has not been a negative McCain bounce since the Convention and announcement of Sarah Palin.
Rasmussen has McCain underperforming in practically every single one of their polls compared to other pollsters out there.
Im not saying he is wrong, but Rasmussen is border-line outlier status at this point.
That’s correct, Rasmussen at the end of the day (Election Day) is usually very close, but maybe he’s lagging behind when a big swing happens in a short period of time.
We’ll see.
Asking why really is an irrelevant question. It’s just a fact.
That other poll is garbage
I’ll say it again. Obama can not win Michigan. McCain can lose it, but Obama can not win it. The senior vote is the biggest reason. The blue collar retired seniors won’t vote for him. Too many bad memories of Coleman Young. Anybody older than 30 has a memory of him. Older than 35 has strong memories.
I won't get it since I live here, and in the people's republic of Washtenaw County to boot.
I don't know where in Ohio you live, but Obama won't win Michigan for the same reason I doubt that someone from East Cleveland would win statewide. Too many people remember what happened with the decline of Detroit, and rightly or wrongly, place the blame on a class of people. Obama reminds people of that.
What about those other 7 states Obama said we have?
I still think this is a stretch, but I’m always willing to bend to the reality of polls (yes, they are accurate when you look at likely voters and you sample multiple polls). So perhaps MI is, unbelievably, in play.
But not without CO, or a combo of NH and NM.
Yeah, that Strategic Vision poll has me re-thinking MI. Is it possible? Or are we again Charlie Brown running up to the MI football only to have Lucy-Obama yank it away?
Good grief. We are 50 days away from the election and people want to throw away razor-thin states. Many states didn’t break for Reagan over Carter in 1980 until the final week.
Do you remember 2004? Same thing. "Bush can win MI."
Do you remember the governor's race? Same thing. "DeVos can actually beat Granholm."
Sorry. Don't buy it till I see McCain ahead in two consecutive REPUTABLE polls.
Dang, I forgot about those. Libertaria, Gonnagetu, Guamania, South Angelicka, Needahairdo, Upper Kneecapia, and East Applestine. Lot of electoral votes there.
Moreover, there has been a pattern of several election cycles where the polling has shown these "razor thin" states NEVER break to the Republican.
Bush never caught on here because he was rich, an oil man, and the son of a president perceived to have inherited everything he had. Oakland County moderates thought he was an idiot, and the union guys thought of him as a spoiled rich kid who outsourced their jobs. He lost Macomb in 2000 and only won it by 5000 votes over a weakling in 2004.
Dick DeVos is a good guy and a bad candidate. Too many people have an Amway story, so that was over from the start. The only way DeVos could have won is by knocking on every door and speaking to them in person.
McCain on the other hand has "paid his dues" as they say through the military, and is running against someone with no military experience, a big mouth, a weakling, and someone who looks like one of those politicians who destoyed what was once a world class city.
it is still advantageous to make the RATS spend a fortune defending Michigan, Pennsylvania and many other states.
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