Breaking Rassmussen : (yuk)Michigan 51/46 Obama,Wyoming 58/39 McCain

Rassmussen ^

[sunmars]

New polls

Michigan

Wyoming

[snarkytart]

Don’t throw PA under the bus too soon, even Obama’s camp admit it’s in play.

[GiovannaNicoletta]

Why would Michigan vote for any democrat when a democrat governor has wrecked their state economy?

[pieceofthepuzzle]

It’s September in a very unique race. We haven’t lost anything yet, IMHO.

[JohnnyZ]

I think McCain is in pretty good shape in Michigan and will likely outperform his poll numbers there. Voters aren’t crazy about the Obama/Kwame parallel.

[FlipWilson]

This is a poll of likely voters. Still, McCain should not give up on MI even though he will not carry it. So long as he is close there, it forces Obama to play defense in a state he should easily carry.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Rassmussen uses an odd methodology for determining how to weight for party affiliations. He ends up really close at the end of the day, but sometimes his polls lag behind when there is a big swing.

I predict Obama will start heavy ads in Michigan this weekend due to internal polls. I predict that McCain will win Michigan by 2% in November.

I think McCain will take Minnesota by 1% as well, and be within 1.5% in Pennsylvania.

[RoseofTexas]

I’ll start worrying after the debates. Still it would have been nice to be WAY ahead incase if our team loses steam through Nov.4...bummer.

[CA Conservative]

Interesting - Rasmussen and CNN both have Obama up by 4-5 in Michigan, though all other polls make it a 1-point race either way. CNN and Rasmussen are also the only outlets showing a tie in the national numbers, though all others give McCain a 2-5 point lead. Is CNN using Rasmussen’s numbers or polling methods - or vice versa?

[mort56]

He who robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on Paul for support.

[mort56]

He who robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on Paul for support.

[MasonGal]

Well said!! My thoughts exactly.

[FreeFromLiberalizm]

Because the people in Michigan bought into Democrats selling points of class warfare, and that the Republicans are screwing them.

California is another example, the old good time of Reagan is forever banished in lost memory.

[LowTaxesEqualProsperity]

McCain can win without Michigan, if he can keep Ohio, which is looking good for him at the moment.

[JohnnyZ]

Because Michigan shouldn’t even be close—it has been a Dem “given”.

Michigan has been very close in presidential elections.

Because of the McCain/Obama matchup, Michigan will be about even and may even favor McCain. Blue collar ticket vs gun-grabbing black liberal -- not a good comparison for Obama.

[bjc]

It is crazy to be making definitive strategic or tactical judgements on these early polls unless the gap is 3 or 4 times the error term. As we saw with the conventions, a good or bad week can lead to a 5 to 10% swing. Internal polling may be more precise, but these polls are way too general to be getting excited over. In the big picture, the election is up for grabs. The debates can have a huge impact on sentiment.

[mass55th]

"So long as he is close there, it forces Obama to play defense in a state he should easily carry."

Good point.

[nathanbedford]

My instinct is to agree with you because it complies with my long term thinking about how this race would shape up.

However, there is this business about Rasmussen over weighting his Democrat sampling because he proceeds on a three-month rolling average which does not take into account the dramatic shift in voter party identification as a result of the Palin phenomenon. It looks like this could result in as much as 5.6% undercounting of McCain's true position. Add to that the matter of the error factor and the question remains open. Finally, we have the insider advantage poll putting McCain up by a point. Admittedly, this is a poll of dubious reputation and limited sampling but it does conform to the adjusted Rasmussen result.

It would be very interesting to know what McCain's polls show. I think there is enough doubt here to defer any decision to abandon Michigan pending better data.

[Texas4ever]

tHATS OK... tHEY CAN FOOL WITH THE NUMBERS ALL THEY WANT ALL IT DOES IS fIRM UP THE BASE AND MAKES US charged up!!!!!

like going to the Super Bowl.....MCCAIN/PALIN...VICTORY

WE NEED A PEP RALLY !!!!!

[saganite]

According to some posters on that thread the poll is not accurate.

[Texas4ever]

Rasmussen...not credible

RM spider

OSMR spiders

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