Posted on 09/11/2008 5:55:32 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Since February I have been saying that Barack Obama would get crushed in this year’s presidential election. … The signs of trouble for the Democrats have always been there…
….Today it is no longer “wishful thinking” or “proof you have been smoking something” to say John McCain will crush Barack Obama.
..here are the numbers that say it is over..
To win Obama must get these numbers with these groups:
..women, he needs at least plus 7. He is down 12.
White males needs at least 36%. If he gets 30% he will be lucky
Catholics: needs 50%. He is down 59/36.
Evangelicals: needs 71%. He is running against an Evangelical and has nothing to offer these Christian voters.
Jewish vote: needs 80%. He is at 57%.
Black vote: needs 95%. Zogby says he has “lost support” among Black voters.
Hispanic vote: needs 65%. The only polls available show he is at 65% so that won’t help, it will only slow the bleeding.
Democrat base support: needs 92%. He is at 86%.
Independents: needs 49%. He is losing 52/37.
This one is over. On Monday September 29, 2008 at about 5 PM when the last weekend polls come in, the numbers will spell doom for the Democrats. On September 30, 2008 the McCain Palin campaign must plan on switching gears and start asking for votes to give them a Republican Congress. It could keep the margin down and keep us safe from the Democrats for another two years.
..there will only be four elected Democrats who will be happy on Nov. 5, the Clintons, George McGovern and Walter Mondale because Barack Obama will take them off the hook as having taken the worse beatings in history
We may never know the actual percentage of black vote, as the ‘Obama effect’ may be setting in, where black voters don’t want to admit that they will vote or have voted for the guy, but in the booth they’ll pull his lever anyway.
Also, whatever chance was there that Obama would have gotten 71% of the evangelical vote? Such a result wouldn’t be necessary for him to eek out the a few battleground states—with record voting in Philly, Cleveland, etc.—anyway.
Sounds like you may be thinking what I’ve been thinking for months. When team Obama doesn’t like the outcome of the election they will attempt to snatch it via the courts in selected areas, naturally. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more speculation on this around here.
It’s a genius system,
and it’s based on the same system through which we are represented in Congress.
It isolates vote fraud.
Imagine election 2000 if we had to just go off of popular vote. Algore would have been demanding recounts in ever place in the country that he had an advantage.
This guy missed the fact that O’Biden has 110% of the Dead, Illegal and Ex-Con votes.
It ain’t over until Palin, er, McCain is sworn in and maybe not then. Fraud, slander, libel, lawsuits and other abuse await us between now and then.
Have you seen the jib-jab video? 0bama riding a unicorn over a rainbow.
Watch it and show it to this person. 0bama is indeed "sh!tting rainbows" in the video.
Vote for the Right!
Piss on the Left!
Check those IDs!
Stop vote theft!
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Don’t say it is over. It is not over even when it is over, recall the endless carping over the results of the 2000 election in Florida. There are all kinds of challenges being prepared “just in case” the Democrats think they have the least shot at reversing any of the outcomes. ACORN has planted the seeds of of what is surely a MASSIVE vote fraud in the places where the “community organizers” have been most active.
The McCain-Palin ticket shall win handily in some 3,000 or so counties in these United States, the Obama-Biden ticket (or whomever shall be representing it by the first of November, 2008) WILL win overwhelmingly in some 600 or so counties concentrated through the “Rust Belt”, the East Coast and the Pacific Coast.
I see a case for partitioning the United States into one trifurcated tribal enclave, then the rest of the country remains under the original national identity. The tribal government is recognized as being able to pursue its own economic course, and apply its own rules as to the award of honors and status within its own territory, but they shall have to have visas to enter the remainder of the United States territory.
Wasn’t a course somewhat similar to this suggested for the country of Iraq by no less a great thinker than Joe Biden himself? (Or maybe he just plagarized it from somebody else.)
Without a good congress, McCain gets to pass Amnesty and 4 years later there are no more Republicans in the House and White House- ever again, and only two more years of a rump Republican Party presence in the Senate. The Democrats will have a period of being unopposed and then will be faced with massive electoral gains of the new La Raza Party. Thenceforth the political competition will be between the Socialist Democrats and the Marxicanists. The last of the Middle Class will hole up in the United Counties of Alaska with President Palin or Jindal and the border will be closed.
I am confident, but we must not be overly optimistic. This is far from over. I don’t agree with this headline. But for now at least it remains competitive, and the trends are good. A lot of experts thought by now it would indeed have been over and that McCain wouldn’t have had a chance.
One other factor—all those young FAD voters will stay home if they think he is a loser —if that occurs he is really going to get blown away
McCain better not go into the PREVENT DEFENSE mode like Bush did in the First debate in 2004
Even the local democrat yellowdog committeeman here in SE PA doesn’t have a sign on his lawn
Two States have a proportional system, and the "winner take all" system isn't established by the Constitution or Federal law. Heck, until 1824, South Carolina never had a Presidential election, the State legislature decided who got South Carolina's electors.
As to which Kerry States: New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania would be my guesses. If figure Obama will flip New Mexico and Iowa. That would give McCain a 326 EV win, not a true "landslide", but bigger than Nixon's win in 1968.
Of course, if Biden keeps talking about how Clinton would have been a better VP pick, and Obama keeps pissing off women voters, we could be looking at a true landslide. I.e. Not flipping New Mexico and losing Wisconsin, Washington, Maine, Maryland, and New Jersey. That would give McCain a 367 win, 3 points shy of what my Presidential politics Professor "technically" considered a landslide.
I will tell my brother to check it out. He works in New Orleans.
Reward GOP congressional candidates, who sign up on the reform agenda with visits from Palin. The election has the potential to be a Dem killer. Put the GOP Vets for Freedom candidates out front. Put Col Allen West out front. Get Michael Steele campaigning thru the big cities.
The experience factor will not be a credible argument against Palin after 4 years of the VP. However, I agree with you about her duties as VP. She will have to have important, high visibility jobs as a VP such as spearheading energy legislation through the Senate to claim on her resume. I think McCain would be one who was willing to give her responsibilities as VP.
Democrat losers in squeaker elections tend to be squoke right out of presidential politics. Kerry and Algor, for instance. On the left a loser becomes reidentified as ideologically impure and a purer candidate and organization will arise for the next run.
Here’s one:
“The Illinois Democrat has also lost some support among African-Americans and Hispanics...”
http://clintondems.com/2008/08/atvzogby-poll-obama-losing-support-among-women-young-voters-aug-5/
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday, September 11 shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 46% of the vote. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 48%
McCain is holding up well with Rassmussens 90 rolling average. So he must be doing very well in the day to day polling to maintain equal.
And get ready for the lawyers filing papers to have the polls open until they get enough votes.
Look at the last two elections. If he gets beat by a whisker or an Electoral College fluke he will not survive politically to run again. His loss will be explained internally in the Moveon and Answer orgs as from ideological impurity and he will fall out of favor.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.