Posted on 09/11/2008 5:55:32 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Since February I have been saying that Barack Obama would get crushed in this year’s presidential election. … The signs of trouble for the Democrats have always been there…
….Today it is no longer “wishful thinking” or “proof you have been smoking something” to say John McCain will crush Barack Obama.
..here are the numbers that say it is over..
To win Obama must get these numbers with these groups:
..women, he needs at least plus 7. He is down 12.
White males needs at least 36%. If he gets 30% he will be lucky
Catholics: needs 50%. He is down 59/36.
Evangelicals: needs 71%. He is running against an Evangelical and has nothing to offer these Christian voters.
Jewish vote: needs 80%. He is at 57%.
Black vote: needs 95%. Zogby says he has “lost support” among Black voters.
Hispanic vote: needs 65%. The only polls available show he is at 65% so that won’t help, it will only slow the bleeding.
Democrat base support: needs 92%. He is at 86%.
Independents: needs 49%. He is losing 52/37.
This one is over. On Monday September 29, 2008 at about 5 PM when the last weekend polls come in, the numbers will spell doom for the Democrats. On September 30, 2008 the McCain Palin campaign must plan on switching gears and start asking for votes to give them a Republican Congress. It could keep the margin down and keep us safe from the Democrats for another two years.
..there will only be four elected Democrats who will be happy on Nov. 5, the Clintons, George McGovern and Walter Mondale because Barack Obama will take them off the hook as having taken the worse beatings in history
There’s a big difference in having to literally go out into the streets—or cemetarys—and drag in anyone who can somehow get into the voting booth and pull a lever. Of course, there is a 50% chance—remember Florida—they’ll pull the wrong lever or punch the wrong chad. There is no doubt dem fraud will be rampant in this election. However, pubbies are energized and in the main can navigate the ballot. Every time the dems cast aspersions on Palin’s family they encourage a pubbie to vote who might have been leaning toward not voting or voting for any conservative candidate. I was one of those. Now I will vote McCain/Palin.
I was not aware that the Elecotral College gave votes to “Catholics”, “Evangelicals”, “Jews”, “Blacks”, etc. I thought it went by states.
No, you are referring to the constitutional system designed by rich white men a couple hundred years ago. Most judges and congressman agree that this system was much too defined and did not factor in things such as feelings and emotions.
If you can’t trust a poll (and you usually can’t), why can you trust the “internals” of that same poll?
Palin has helped immensely with the Rep turnout and particiapation. McCain became the presumptive nominee with just 31% of the vote. He was going to depress the turnout of the base. And then there are the Hillary voters and the "Bradley effect" that could play a major role in the race. It is going to be very close.
>>Do not misunderestimate the depths to which the backers of these people will stoop to secure the White House of the the United States of America.<<
They are hoping that the army of slime miners they sent to Alaska will dig up something that sticks, and save it until just before the election....
Yes I do.
I see a twist on that: Blacks will vote for him because they will be coerced with peer pressure and fear of social fallout if they resist, just as many in university environments or teachers’ unions are pressured.
Absolutely right.
That being said, a few brave souls will close the curtain and do the right thing for America.
I'm sure this is true, but it won't be 10-12% of the Black vote. I think it will be more like 2-3%.
Hillary, Senate Majority Leader???? Color me skeptical. Seniority means a lot in the Senate heirarchy, and she has little.
Especially the media.
It does not matter, black, white, hispanic...IT IS ALL about the Electoral College and the numbers there.
So thats how they do it, huh? I remember in 04 they were having technical difficulties in Wisconson and stopped the count till the next morning. Bush was very close to winning. I thought he would take Wisconson. We didn’t hear anymore about it for awhile and then FoxNews called Ohio for Bush and sure enough the next morning, Wisconson went to Kerry. So they were manufacturing votes. This is only going to get worse till Republicans start fighting vote fraud.
“The internals are instructive and so is Obama’s conduct on the campaign trail.”
Exactly...
Stephanopolous let it slip BEFORE the conventions that Dem internals were showing bad things for Obama, and the orgy of hate and lies since Palin was nominated tells us EXACTLY what they are seeing now.
I'll believe that the election is McCain's when California polls show him over Obama in that state. Until then, it's work, work, work. McCain won't win over many Blacks but I think he has a chance with Hispanics. If it turns out he does win without their help, he needs to rethink his amnesty proposals; no need for him to pander.
The people in flyover country do see through him but its the metropolitan areas that vote dem big time.
LOL I love that!
I have to ask how you got to see internal polling data. Was it McCain data? Was it from each of the states? I won’t be surprised if you are connected in some way, with a name like goldstategop, but I sure would like to see what you saw.
Did you give more details elsewhere on FR?
That's why it's going to go down to CO., NM., and NV. I would be surprised if McCain/Palin win NM. I think they will win NV., so it will be CO. that decides it.
The idea that McCain/Palin will take PA., MI., and NH. sounds great, but I don't believe it is likely. If they get PA., or MI. we don't even have to worry about the west.
Totally agree,, landslide of historic proportions. BUT DO NOT stop working. Tortoise and Hare. Rabbit would have won, but his arrogance screwed him. Focus on our task. However, fight with a glad heart knowing we CAN win big.
That said, this democrat effort is nothing less than a islamo/marxist America-hating insurgency funded by Soros. Soros was big into those “color revolutions” in the former USSR.
They will do anything to win. Fraud of all kinds, litigation we cannot conceive of, AND i am always worried about the day they declare the color blue or something as the color of revolt and start the sit down strikes.
44% of the nation will almost certainly vote for him.
Post defeat, they could mobilize utterly immense crowds doing the “national shutdown” routine. The MSM would spin this to the world as a stolen election, a popular uprising, Jimmy Carter swings into action,,the UN convenes in emergency session,,, the EU immediately “recognizes” Obama as the winner,,,, etc. Financial Markets go into absolute chaos, the monied interests worldwide are screaming,,,, the pressure on the US supreme court, and the electors in congress would be unbearable.
(i should write a scary political novel,,,,no?)
From Marcos vs Aquinno,,,Ukraine,, Georgia,, etc,,we have encouraged electoral losers to flood the streets until they bring down the government in question. People, the day is coming where they will try it here. In truth, revolutionary change, not constitutional, is their goal.
Absolutely do not underestimate their treachery. They might not just go home they way we would if we lost a fair election.
I hope im wrong,,, but his core feels very dangerous to me. Anyway,,, buy some tuna and extra ammo. I’m heading into my rhetorical bunker now, fire away if you disagree!
"If someone wins 54% of popular vote, I don’t think there is any way he can lose the EV."
So far, historically, that is correct. The 'popular' vote winner with the highest percentage popular vote who lost the actual Electoral College vote was Tilden(D) in 1876 who had 50.97% of the 'popular' vote while receiving 49.9% of the electoral vote. The victor, Hayes(R) had 47.95% of the 'popular' vote and 50.1% of the electoral vote.
Here is a table with the rest of the Presidential election vote percentages, sorted by the 'popular' vote margin of the electoral college winner.
dvwjr
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