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(Barf Alert): Palin Doesn't Matter, Numbers Do
www.realclearpolitics.com ^ | September 11, 2008 | Bob Beckel

Posted on 09/10/2008 11:57:30 PM PDT by Publius804

September 11, 2008

Palin Doesn't Matter, Numbers Do

By Bob Beckel

The Sarah Palin “boom” that has so traumatized Democrats and intimidated the press will have little if any impact on the presidential election. People don’t vote for vice presidents, they vote for presidents. This race is about John McCain and Barack Obama not Annie Oakley from Wasilla, Alaska. It is also about turnout numbers and the electoral demographics in 2008 which overwhelm any impact Sarah Palin might have on the election outcome.

First the Palin “boom”. It is the product of surprise (a short lived but powerful force in politics), an emotional outlet for the GOP Right, and post convention polls. In the intense coverage of politics by the ever expanding number of outlets for political information, what is new and surprising quickly becomes over exposed resulting in a short shelf life. The freshness goes away quickly. So it will be shortly for Ms. Palin. She has had the best week in this campaign she will have and the only direction now is down.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: beckel; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; palin; polls
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To: Publius804
Bob Beckel, the Democratic Pachyderm of American politics weighs in, and we discover his brain is as bloated as his belly, and his thoughts are as gelatinous as his jowls. Bob has been whistling this tune as he crawls cautiously past the graveyard for the last week. We have to wonder if Palin is so inconsequential, why she's occupied so much of SpongeBlobs -- and the zer0's -- energy; nearly all of it, in fact, since the announcement was made.

No doubt we'll have several more columns of this type leading into October 2nd, when, if zer0 hasn't exercised his Eagleton option, we'll be told either that VP debates are also meaningless, or, if by some genuine miracle Joe Biden actually manages to sound half-sober for a full 90 minutes how vital it is to have a capable veep in the event something awful should happen to the Big Cheese.

Of course, McCain has a mother whose DNA is apparently good enough to have lasted her for what -- 120 years now -- so Matt Damon's actuarial prognostications are probably as worthless as his -- or Bob's -- opinion on anything. And zer0 will simply succeed himself after rising from the grave.

Whatever betide, Bob will be right here, for chuckles. Like Dickens and Dostoevsky, I suspect he's paid by the word.

21 posted on 09/11/2008 12:19:58 AM PDT by FredZarguna (Senator Obama, I knew the Higgs. The Higgs was a friend of mine.. and Senator... you're no Higgs.)
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To: Prophet in the wilderness

Actually, It’s unclear what “stinky fish” was referencing. In order to put this episode behind us, Obama should explain exactly what he meant in a town hall style meeting on live prime time TV.


22 posted on 09/11/2008 12:20:11 AM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (Jesse Jackson talks about neutering Obama, but Sarah Palin actually delivers.)
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To: goldstategop

If Obama takes the black vote, and McCain- Palin takes the white female vote, that’ll work!


23 posted on 09/11/2008 12:21:10 AM PDT by matthew fuller (Palin/McCain 08- So let it be written, So let it be done!)
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To: max americana
"and they have nothing to show for it except souvenirs from Obama’s last sermon in Berlin. "

Aren't you forgetting the styrofoam columns?

24 posted on 09/11/2008 12:23:17 AM PDT by matthew fuller (Palin/McCain 08- So let it be written, So let it be done!)
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To: Prophet in the wilderness

lipstick on a pig is pretty common but that fish remark...how come nobody talks about that?


25 posted on 09/11/2008 12:24:55 AM PDT by ari-freedom (We never hide from history. We make history!)
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To: This Just In
They keep stepping in their own crap all the time... digging deeper and deeper.

“Palin Doesn’t Matter...”, which is why I’m saying that, “Palin Doesn’t Matter...”, because, and let me make myself clear, “Palin Doesn’t Matter...” Oh, and did I tell you that, “Palin Doesn’t Matter...?” Well, “Palin Doesn’t Matter...”

Obama ? Bob Beckle ? ....
In case you left your brain at Holiday Inn.... there is something that you needs to understand.....
When you say " Palin Does not matter " ... that is a affront , insult, offensive to women ONCE AGAIN !!
Women interpret it as ( Bob Beckles ) remarks " Palin does not matter " ... women in their minds... interpret it as " women do not matter ".

Silly , Silly fools.
26 posted on 09/11/2008 12:27:02 AM PDT by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM .53 : 1 The FOOL hath said in his heart, there is no GOD.)
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To: Prophet in the wilderness

Monkeys throwing *BLEEP*.


27 posted on 09/11/2008 12:31:05 AM PDT by This Just In
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To: goldstategop
Geraldine Ferraro never moved the numbers for Mondale

And your point is...?

28 posted on 09/11/2008 12:34:25 AM PDT by at bay (My father was born with 28 ounces of flesh in 1924 then went on to become Mr. (Glenn) Holland.)
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To: Publius804

Oh shutup Bob


29 posted on 09/11/2008 12:35:23 AM PDT by tina07 (In loving memory of my father,WWII Vet. CBI 10/16/42 - 12/17/45, d. 11/1/85)
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To: Question Liberal Authority
" Actually, It’s unclear what “stinky fish” was referencing. In order to put this episode behind us, Obama should explain exactly what he meant in a town hall style meeting on live prime time TV. "

Women knew exactly what he was referencing to..
That ought to be good to see him once again weasel himself out that slip up on live TV ... or was it a slip up ? Obama ? you have some explaining to do.
30 posted on 09/11/2008 12:36:00 AM PDT by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM .53 : 1 The FOOL hath said in his heart, there is no GOD.)
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To: Publius804

People don’t vote for vps? Then why is the press going after her so hard?


31 posted on 09/11/2008 12:41:09 AM PDT by Tzimisce (How Would Mohammed Vote? Obama for President!)
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To: Tzimisce
Exactly! If as dear old Bob asserts, that Sarah is just a shooting star destined to flame out, why are the Democrats making a big deal out of it? Despite his bravado, he knows she is a substantial political asset to the GOP and the Democrats have NO ONE like her. Obama doesn't measure up!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

32 posted on 09/11/2008 12:53:09 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Publius804

The new face of the Democrats
33 posted on 09/11/2008 12:57:30 AM PDT by ari-freedom (We never hide from history. We make history!)
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To: Question Liberal Authority

I like your tag line, but his wife, Michelle-ma-belle, beat her to it!


34 posted on 09/11/2008 12:59:20 AM PDT by notdownwidems (Vote Republican! We're 1/10 of 1% better than the other guys!)
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To: Publius804
The essence of Bob Beckel's argument is contained in this sentence:

In battleground states, voter registration, newly eligible young voters, eligible nonvoting blacks, and even death rates all favor Obama.

These are some of the statistics which I have been warning about all year.

Much if not all of these numbers except eligible nonvoting blacks and eligible young voters should already be accounted for in the polls we are looking at. In other words, if older McCain voters have died leaving fewer of them, those numbers should already be accounted for when the pollsters analyze the field. The same is true in the opposite direction for voter registration which Beckel presumes has run in Obama's favor. I am assuming that if the pollster does not have the entire field mapped and fenced the rest of his work is nonsense.

The pollsters however have a hard time measuring intensity which is the real danger coming from nonvoting blacks who are already registered or who will be, along with eligible young voters, registered before the election.

But for the other elements which measures things as they are, much of the damage has already been baked into the cake and recorded by the pollsters.

The second general observation is that with respect to the youth vote, no campaign has succeeded in winning an election on it. Democrats are always threatening to do so. They're always disappointed. Even if many youths are registered now, history tells us that not so great a percentage will vote for Obama and that might be all the more true in today's climate given his deteriorating image.

The big danger, of course, is that registered blacks will actually come out in this election for the first time. And it is unrealistic to deny that this is a serious challenge for McCain. There is however the backlash which might or might not occur among white voters who will be energized to vote against an African-American. And there is also the factor of whites who lie about their intentions. By the time November 4 rolls around, Obama's Messiah reputation might well be in tatters by election Day and the African-American community might not be nearly so energized as Beckel thinks. On the other hand, the white "community" might well have awakened to the radical threat represented by Barak Hussein Obama.

/ To counter Beckel's arguments, one might observe that we have no way to accurately measure the intensity of the movement for Governor Palin and that is probably why Beckel attempts to dismiss it early in his piece as being by nature destined to burn out quickly.

Beckel's analysis does not weigh the relative merits of the ground games. The Republican operatives in Ohio have been quoted on these threads as saying that the Democrat ground effort there is still amateurish. We shall see.

In my judgment, if McCain can hold Ohio the pivotal battleground state becomes Colorado where the ground game becomes decisive and the black vote relatively marginalized.

There is one other potentially game altering factor: USA/Gallup has just reported that voter identification for Republicans has just pulled to within one point of voter identification for Democrats. That could very well mean that pollsters, especially Rasmussen who is assuming a 7.6% advantage to the Democrats, is greatly under reporting McCain's position. Another report simply observed that the Republicans had improved their party identification by five percentage points without identifying the baselines. This is consistent with the USA/Gallup findings. This is undoubtedly the Palin effect and it could utterly overwhelm the rest of our statistics.

As I have been saying endlessly on these threads: Tip O'Neill had it wrong, all politics is not local, in America, all politics is racial.


35 posted on 09/11/2008 1:18:13 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford
There is one other potentially game altering factor: USA/Gallup has just reported that voter identification for Republicans has just pulled to within one point of voter identification for Democrats. That could very well mean that pollsters, especially Rasmussen who is assuming a 7.6% advantage to the Democrats, is greatly under reporting McCain's position

This is exactly what's going on. Right now, I think Ras uses a 39% - 32% D/R mix. He's not seeing the shift so his numbers are understimating McCain right now.

36 posted on 09/11/2008 1:52:47 AM PDT by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: Publius804

Hey Bob old boy...if Palin doesn’t matter, why do you Democrat operatives keep talking about her? :)


37 posted on 09/11/2008 1:56:09 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (Just say NObama!)
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To: Publius804

Hey Bob - bounced any checks to prostitutes lately?


38 posted on 09/11/2008 1:56:29 AM PDT by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
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To: Publius804

Once again the conventional wisdom gets it wrong. If Beckel doesn’t understand the importance of the Palin nomination, he’s either lying (most possible explanation) or he’s the dumbest political analyst out there. I’m close to sixty, and I’ve NEVER!!! seen a phenomenon like Palin. Has anyone else ever seen an election year where the veep choice is as discussed and celebrated than Palin? Beckel is lying through his teeth if doesn’t know that the Pubbie base had been energized like nothing since Reagan.


39 posted on 09/11/2008 2:13:01 AM PDT by driftless2
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To: goldstategop
"landslide"

I think Alf Landon's trouncing in 1936 by FDR is the biggest raw vote landslide. Maybe Mondull won more electoral votes.

40 posted on 09/11/2008 2:15:22 AM PDT by driftless2
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