[impeachedrapist]

You mean you’re starting to HOPE that Gallup is an outlier. :-) Because the recent CHANGE in momentum has to be disconcerting.

[B Knotts]

The thing is, Rasmussen himself said that we won’t see all of the bounce until around now, and we’re seeing his poll move in the opposite direction.

The other thing is that there doesn’t seem to be any explanation for why numbers would be moving in Obama’s direction.

I think all the polls, Gallup included, are a bit odd right now.

[DRey]

Rasmussen uses a weird party “enthiuasm” factor based on three months prior (well before the conventions and Palin came along to change everything) to weight his polls. If there is an outlier, it will be Rasmussen from here on out.

[hoe_cake]

All these polls confuse me. I’ve seen polls showing white women’s support up tremendously, and men’s support for Palin up trememdously.

No poll is consistent. What poll is more trusting? Any of them?

[beagleone]

Personally, I think Rasmussen is oversampling Democrats. But I don’t mind, because we can’t get complacent with the favorable polls. This is just a reminder that we have a long way to go.

[nikos1121]

I don’t know what this means. Rasmussen is an automated survey. Palin is mobilizing both sides. The question will be the effect the O Reilly and Charles Gibson interviews are having and will have. Biden is totally out of the picture. Obama is going after Palin, he doesn’t look presidential. By this time four years ago, Bush was taking off....5 to 6 pt ahead. Mac is scoring big in Montana and NC. It’s nip and tuck in NM, CO, VA, IN, OH

[forYourChildrenVote4Bush]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110143/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Maintains-5Point-Lead.aspx

September 9, 2008
Gallup Daily: McCain Maintains 5-Point LeadSupport among registered voters steady at 49%

Different polls different results???

[Texas Mulerider]

Let’s see if this changes after the “lipstick on a pig” story is out for a while. It just happened yesterday. It’s all the networks are talking about this morning. Of course, MSNBC is in full damage control mode.

[henkster]

Without some sort of major change, this is going to be a very close election in the popular vote. Stump speeches and campaign stops are not going to change anything; those are just preaching to the choir.

The only major opportunities for a “sea change” that we know about are the debates. There are still “wild card” opportunities for such a change, like a terrorist attack or some sort of “Tet Offensive” in Iraq.

Barring a major mistake by McCain (0bama’s will be covered up by the msm), this is what we will get to the election.

[Sooth2222]

"Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated."

That's my guess as to where the problem is with the Rasmussen polling. Claimed party identification probably changed significantly over just a few days following Sarah Palin's speech.

I could call myself a Republican, Libertarian, Democrat or an independent, and I would not be lying, since my state doesn't require a political party to be declared except to vote in a primary.

[Crawdad]

Watch which states Obama visits. That’s all the polls I need.

[KeatsforFirstDog]

I understand his 3 month rolling party affliation, but it would be nice if once or twice a week he’d just give the bare bones numbers without any tinkering, you know?

I suppose I could mathematically do the numbers if I get time later today...

[Blood of Tyrants]

Pay no attention to national polls. It is the state polls that count and in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are showing a distinct McCain/Palin shift.

[ConservativeStatement]

How about Cynthia McKinney and the Green Party? /s

[Marie]

How can 20% of the women shift to McCain and it result in Obama +1? Aren’t we half the population and more than half of the voting population? (Women typically vote a little more than guys do.)

Before the Rep. convention it was 48-43 Obama. (If I’m reading the chart right.) That’s a five point difference. If 20% of the women shifted and NO men, we should see McCain up by 5% now. I’d also add that we now have more conservatives in the “Likely Voter” category than two weeks ago. Palin will get us off the couch on election night like McCain never could.

I think Rasmussen is off somehow, but I’m willing to wait for next week’s polls before I finalize that impression.

We also need to wait a week to see the impact of the lipstick comment. If it’s anything like Kerry’s “bunny suit”, he’ll never regain his momentum.

[ncalburt]

Who are you trying to FOOL, Your PRAYING the Gallup results are an outlier. I have read you previous posts . Obama cheerleader.

[comebacknewt]

While I would like nothing more than to see a McCain landslide, the reality is that it is very unlikely to happen. Too many people have accepted the Dark Side.

This is going to be another extremely close election. I like our chances, but it could definitely go either way.

[fremont_steve]

I took my own un-scientific poll here in the SF Bay area - specifically near San Jose. It involved my wife going to get her hair done. If it isn’t obvious to the most casual observer, the bay area is a traditional hot bed for democratic support.

Well, my wife blew my socks off yesterday when she said the hot topic of conversation at the beauty shop was none other than who to vote for. These ladies were undoubtedly all democratic supporters - but they’re talking about and considering McCain/Palin now all due to Palin!

I hadn’t really expected the Hillary factor to be real - but from this little data point - sure seems to be just that. So there are a number of liberal women that are giving second thoughts to Obama support due to Palin - at least here in the SF Bay area.