http://www.gallup.com/poll/110143/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Maintains-5Point-Lead.aspx
September 9, 2008
Gallup Daily: McCain Maintains 5-Point LeadSupport among registered voters steady at 49%
Different polls different results???
I usually think Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster, but even he admitted the other day that surging party ID for the Republicans after the convention may have rendered his turnout model, which is some months old, obsolete.
I also wonder about likely vs. registered voters in this election. My wife volunteered in Republican headaquarters the other day and a guy came in who hadn’t voted since Reagan’s last election. He’s definitely voting to keep Obama out of the WH this time. He certainly wouldn’t be included in Rasmussen’s “likely voter” pool. He simply wouldn’t be counted. but he would be counted among Gallup’s registered voters. So which poll is more accurate this time? It could be Gallup.