I don’t know what this means. Rasmussen is an automated survey. Palin is mobilizing both sides. The question will be the effect the O Reilly and Charles Gibson interviews are having and will have. Biden is totally out of the picture. Obama is going after Palin, he doesn’t look presidential. By this time four years ago, Bush was taking off....5 to 6 pt ahead. Mac is scoring big in Montana and NC. It’s nip and tuck in NM, CO, VA, IN, OH
All bounces fade, but McCain’s is fading almost not at all.
Ras is now the same method he was in 2004. I believe he used previous election turnout to determine Dem/GOP/Ind target mix then. Now he uses a 3 month average, and of course 2 months ago the move back to GOP had not begun. This is the weakness of his method and he knows it. Relatively rapid changes in party affiliation won’t be captured.
Gallup is more random. It will pick up such a rapid change, but its weakness is what it has always been — that sample to sample can show large changes in party affiliation. People say “he oversampled Dems”!!!! He didn’t. He sampled randomly and that number of Dems is what he got. Big variances in that can occur and only some are real.
The result is that with the change in Ras method from 2004 you cannot compare this year’s results to 2004. All you know anything about is trend, and there is a tiny erosion of McCain bump — 1.5% max so far.
It’s all about fundraising right now. McCain’s team is fighting to get big poll bumps, even if they are unsustainable, to discourage Dem donors. The message will get far away from strong right wing quotes over the next few weeks in order to avoid energizing checkbooks.