Posted on 09/09/2008 7:16:38 PM PDT by mathprof
Yesterday, we saw a lot of places where the McCain bounce wasn't; today we see some places where it is:
The theme here is simply traditionally red states coming home to John McCain in a big way, likely cordoning off certain corners of the electoral map to Barack Obama. A 20-point lead in North Carolina? Wow -- that's a big, shiny number. And it's probably an outlier to a certain extent, considering that Obama's numbers didn't appear to have suffered very much in neighboring Virginia. But even if it is a big outlier -- say Obama is really down 10 points rather than 20 -- and even if
it's owing in part to the convention bounce -- say Obama rebounds to 5 points behind -- is there any way in hell that it's going to be a tipping point state? I think the answer to that is pretty obvious. The only reason for Obama to be maintaining a field operation in North Carolina is to help Kay Hagan.
Montana, on the other hand, I don't think is worth completely giving up upon. Obama still retains (barely) a net favorable rating in the state, and the Rasmussen poll did not include Ron Paul, who will be on the ballot. Still, Montana has gone from something like Plan D to Plan Q.
I don't know what the post-convention numbers will like in Indiana and Missouri, but I don't expect they'll be good for Obama. North Dakota, which is a little different demographically and more moderate culturally, is perhaps more likely to remain within striking distance.
Outside of those shock polls in North Carolina and Montana, things are kind of a wash. The pair of Strategic Vision polls in Wisconsin and Michigan, Obama ought to be feeling all right about, as Strategic Vision has a fairly notable Republican lean (Obama was ahead by 5 in Strategic Vision's most recent survey of Wisconsin; this is the first time they've polled Michigan). It appears that there's been some movement toward McCain in New Jersey, but FDU
switched from a registered voter model to a likely voter one, rendering trendline comparisons dodgy; in any event, the Democrats have bigger problems to worry about.
Lastly, there's a PPP poll out in Florida that does not show the race tightening, as Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon did; instead, McCain has moved from a 3 to a 5-point lead. I continue to think that, as some of the red states come off the map, Florida is a state where Obama should be moving resources in.
Our trendline, although confused by some of the weird polling out today, has now almost caught up to the national averages and shows the popular vote dead-even. Obama, however, retains a lead in the electoral college projection, as the Kerry + NM + IA + CO combination remains intact, however tenuously. Obama would not be favored in any of Ohio, Virginia and Florida if an election were held there today, but they remain perfectly viable alternatives if and when he gets some arm's-length distance from McCain's bounce.
It looks like Obama will be forced to retreat into Kerry states during the final weeks. WI, NH, MI, and PA are certainly up for grabs. There are a handful of red states that are close, but I believe McCain can wrap those up with the now fired up conservative base. I saw a poll where McCain is only down 6 in NJ, but I think we see that with every election. The republican always looks just close enough in NJ to make it worth wasting money on.
You may very well be right! The earlier the better.
Obambi is going to run into serious money problems soon. Nobody wants to donate to a loser.
His decision to forgo public funding is not only a window into his shabby character, but a damnation of his good judgment. I predict that it will go down as one of the most foolish political miscalculations in American political history-- and that McCain's selection of Palin will be exactly the opposite.
-ccm
IMO, we’re simply seeing a trend back to 2004 stats with some subtle changes that may make one or two states that were “red” go “Blue” this time, and one or two “blue” go “red” this time depending on who seizes the momentum best toward the end.
Contrary to popular opinion, I don’t believe the country radically shifted in two years from 2004-2006. I just think conservatives got fed up with the RINO’s and either stayed home, didn’t work GOTV for the Reps or in the case of Reagan Democrats just went back “home” for awhile. 2006 would not be the first time conservatives taught the Gop a lesson, trouble is the GOP still hasn’t quite gotten it yet and was in for another pounding until Palin.
This means the race is NOT over, it’s just begun with the two being effectively tied. The difference is Palin and at this moment I don’t think it’s too much to state the tipping point of the election rests on her in these final two months.
If she can keep the public with her for two months, McCain has the edge and Congressional Republicans may not have quite as bad a year as anticipated. The Senate would be a hard sell, but taking back some House seats could be a realistic goal.
The moral of the story is, once again, if it’s close the left will cheat, cheat, cheat and still call for a re-count.
I don’t understand why anyone even pretends this race is still on.
Obama is cooked.
That was the entire point of operation Chaos, damage the dems and help them pick the weaker candidate.
He has arrived and Hillary cannot nor will she ever save him.
Its over.
Stop looking at the polls. Ask yourself.
How do I feel?
As a conservative?
As someone voting Republican ?
I’ll tell you how you feel.
You feel awesome!
You feel like something clicked inside and now it all makes sense.
That’s how you know you are winning. You don’t need polls to tell you what is in the air.
Yes, something could happen. Probably something in the debates. In fact, I will tell you write now that the debates will narrow Obama’s gap with McCain.
But it won’t matter. The mystique is gone. The hype has been pierced and now there is a new mania in town. BO is old news.
He will not be able to re mount the horse. He will finish worse than Dukkakis.
We know he has nothing signficant in the way of debating skills. He proved that with Hillary and he proved it again at Saddleback.
BO is toast. Stop kidding yourselves.
Yes, donate to McCain. Put a sign up. Keep driving the stake deep into the hearts of liberals at every watercooler you see.
But this man is done.
absent your course of action, every time I play with “270towin.com” I come down to Colorado as the final piece of the puzzle for the hero and the lady.
attend all rallies and really scream loud and be enthusiastic...eventually, the Dbys have to cover it on the telly....
I think it's more than subtle changes. I think there's a 4-6 point swing of blue collar areas away from Obama and a similar swing of white collar areas toward Obama. That has major consequences in PA-MI-OH-WI. We may not see as much an effect in Wisconsin because it's exposed to the Chicagobama media market, and Biden has held down southeast PA somewhat, but Ohio looks great for McCain and Michigan is a very likely pickup imo.
“As I said in a previous posting, I think the tide has turned. We could actually win this thing!”
I think so too. If the momentum builds, I’d like to see them try something. Challenge every incumbent Congressman, Democrat or Republican, to support term limits if re-elected. Then throw their support to the incumbent (whether Dem or Rep) if they agree to support term limits.
That’s the only way Washington is ever going to change. When they can only stay for 6-8 years and then have to either move up or move back home. It would mesh with McCain/Palin’s change message and it would be effective in getting people to sign onto term limits (both the representatives and, more important, the voters.)
Republicans proved in the first six years of Bush’s presidency that it doesn’t matter what your party’s principles are. The longer you’re in that cesspool we call Washington, the more corrupt you get. Sure, there’s good ones still surviving, but on balance they need to leave after a few years and it needs to be mandatory. Besides, that opens up room for fresh faces (Palin being an excellent example.)
This one came out today from a TV station in Oklahoma where Obama lost 4+ points for Survey USA. Believe Obama wasted money in opening two offices in OK :) — here is the latest poll from the CBS affiliate but independently owned TV station that usually gets it pretty close:
A new TvPoll for KWTV-Channel 9 shows Republicans with substantial leads in major Oklahoma races.
In the presidential race, John McCain and Sarah Palin are reported at 65.9 percent, while Barack Obama and Joe Biden trail badly at just 27.9 percent with 6.2 percent undecided.
I’m in McCain country...bambi doesn’t have a chance even with our female rat governor, Butch Napalitano. It’s the swing states that will cheat him in if possible.
AWESOME!
Biden better keep one eye on his back. He is now a drag on the campaign. They can’t Eagleton him but if he stays they loose. He has to go but they need it to be done so he brings them a sympathy bounce. VP candidate dies of a horrible accident (plane crash?) base rallies in sympathy and Obama gets a second pick without the Eaglton baggage. Sounds a little paranoid but we are talking a politician here who is a product of the Chicago political machine. “Accidents” are easy for these people.
Of course she said yes.
This side of Bill Bennett, who says no to VP?
Here’s to hoping.
The debates are the only remaining game changers. We need the old man to be strong in the face of Slick Berry.
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