Posted on 09/09/2008 7:16:38 PM PDT by mathprof
Yesterday, we saw a lot of places where the McCain bounce wasn't; today we see some places where it is:
The theme here is simply traditionally red states coming home to John McCain in a big way, likely cordoning off certain corners of the electoral map to Barack Obama. A 20-point lead in North Carolina? Wow -- that's a big, shiny number. And it's probably an outlier to a certain extent, considering that Obama's numbers didn't appear to have suffered very much in neighboring Virginia. But even if it is a big outlier -- say Obama is really down 10 points rather than 20 -- and even if
it's owing in part to the convention bounce -- say Obama rebounds to 5 points behind -- is there any way in hell that it's going to be a tipping point state? I think the answer to that is pretty obvious. The only reason for Obama to be maintaining a field operation in North Carolina is to help Kay Hagan.
Montana, on the other hand, I don't think is worth completely giving up upon. Obama still retains (barely) a net favorable rating in the state, and the Rasmussen poll did not include Ron Paul, who will be on the ballot. Still, Montana has gone from something like Plan D to Plan Q.
I don't know what the post-convention numbers will like in Indiana and Missouri, but I don't expect they'll be good for Obama. North Dakota, which is a little different demographically and more moderate culturally, is perhaps more likely to remain within striking distance.
Outside of those shock polls in North Carolina and Montana, things are kind of a wash. The pair of Strategic Vision polls in Wisconsin and Michigan, Obama ought to be feeling all right about, as Strategic Vision has a fairly notable Republican lean (Obama was ahead by 5 in Strategic Vision's most recent survey of Wisconsin; this is the first time they've polled Michigan). It appears that there's been some movement toward McCain in New Jersey, but FDU
switched from a registered voter model to a likely voter one, rendering trendline comparisons dodgy; in any event, the Democrats have bigger problems to worry about.
Lastly, there's a PPP poll out in Florida that does not show the race tightening, as Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon did; instead, McCain has moved from a 3 to a 5-point lead. I continue to think that, as some of the red states come off the map, Florida is a state where Obama should be moving resources in.
Our trendline, although confused by some of the weird polling out today, has now almost caught up to the national averages and shows the popular vote dead-even. Obama, however, retains a lead in the electoral college projection, as the Kerry + NM + IA + CO combination remains intact, however tenuously. Obama would not be favored in any of Ohio, Virginia and Florida if an election were held there today, but they remain perfectly viable alternatives if and when he gets some arm's-length distance from McCain's bounce.
Big oops: I meant that the source was “The New Republic” (not National Review)!
Your title says “National Review”.
If you put purfume on a pig, it's still a pig. nObama is toast.
The choice of Sarah Palin for VP has turned out to be not only a wise choice, but a stroke of genius. Not only has McCain managed to rally the reulctant conservative base to his side, but his choice has caused the DemocRAT Party and its MSM allies to show their ugly true nature to the American people in a way they never have before. The attacks on Sarah Palin are backfiring in all directions.
As I said in a previous posting, I think the tide has turned. We could actually win this thing!
Lots of undecideds in MI and WI - they’ve got to be breaking for McCain ...
They are trying to calm the N0bamamaniacs. They don’t want them to suicide out before Nov 4th.
Now subtract the “Bradly factor” numbers from the chosen ones side and we have a McCain landslide.
Big Red, Communist victory ?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Yep, just a bit of wishful thinking there. North Dakota? lol
When does a bounce become a surge?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
In another week or so!!
Delusional.
Support the surge...Iraq/McCain/Palin
Colorado and Nevada concern me the most. If McCain takes both of those, we should win.
(As I said in a previous posting, I think the tide has turned. We could actually win this thing!)
Could you imagine having such a pick when your base HATED you? And then she actually said yes? I HATE McCain over the immigration shiit. I will hold his nuts to the fire. NO AMNESTY. I will vote for him, but...........do you think he will listen to us conservatives when in office? HELL NO! Amnesty will be bill #1.
I would say the surge starts Friday ... If the trend continues.
I would not count OK as a trend. Last election Oklahoma went dem was (I believe) 1964 LBJ. Dems don’t get much play on the national level here!
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