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Today's Polls: Big Red
the national review ^ | 9/9/08 | Nate Silver

Posted on 09/09/2008 7:16:38 PM PDT by mathprof

Yesterday, we saw a lot of places where the McCain bounce wasn't; today we see some places where it is:



The theme here is simply traditionally red states coming home to John McCain in a big way, likely cordoning off certain corners of the electoral map to Barack Obama. A 20-point lead in North Carolina? Wow -- that's a big, shiny number. And it's probably an outlier to a certain extent, considering that Obama's numbers didn't appear to have suffered very much in neighboring Virginia. But even if it is a big outlier -- say Obama is really down 10 points rather than 20 -- and even if

it's owing in part to the convention bounce -- say Obama rebounds to 5 points behind -- is there any way in hell that it's going to be a tipping point state? I think the answer to that is pretty obvious. The only reason for Obama to be maintaining a field operation in North Carolina is to help Kay Hagan.

Montana, on the other hand, I don't think is worth completely giving up upon. Obama still retains (barely) a net favorable rating in the state, and the Rasmussen poll did not include Ron Paul, who will be on the ballot. Still, Montana has gone from something like Plan D to Plan Q.

I don't know what the post-convention numbers will like in Indiana and Missouri, but I don't expect they'll be good for Obama. North Dakota, which is a little different demographically and more moderate culturally, is perhaps more likely to remain within striking distance.

Outside of those shock polls in North Carolina and Montana, things are kind of a wash. The pair of Strategic Vision polls in Wisconsin and Michigan, Obama ought to be feeling all right about, as Strategic Vision has a fairly notable Republican lean (Obama was ahead by 5 in Strategic Vision's most recent survey of Wisconsin; this is the first time they've polled Michigan). It appears that there's been some movement toward McCain in New Jersey, but FDU

switched from a registered voter model to a likely voter one, rendering trendline comparisons dodgy; in any event, the Democrats have bigger problems to worry about.

Lastly, there's a PPP poll out in Florida that does not show the race tightening, as Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon did; instead, McCain has moved from a 3 to a 5-point lead. I continue to think that, as some of the red states come off the map, Florida is a state where Obama should be moving resources in.

Our trendline, although confused by some of the weird polling out today, has now almost caught up to the national averages and shows the popular vote dead-even. Obama, however, retains a lead in the electoral college projection, as the Kerry + NM + IA + CO combination remains intact, however tenuously. Obama would not be favored in any of Ohio, Virginia and Florida if an election were held there today, but they remain perfectly viable alternatives if and when he gets some arm's-length distance from McCain's bounce.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; electionpresident; mccainpalin; obama; palinmccain
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This is from "The New Republic", a left-leaning magazine's blog.
1 posted on 09/09/2008 7:16:39 PM PDT by mathprof
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To: mathprof

Big oops: I meant that the source was “The New Republic” (not National Review)!


2 posted on 09/09/2008 7:19:44 PM PDT by mathprof
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To: mathprof

Your title says “National Review”.


3 posted on 09/09/2008 7:21:21 PM PDT by kenavi (BHO: The only constant is change.)
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To: mathprof
This is from "The New Republic", a left-leaning magazine's blog.

If you put purfume on a pig, it's still a pig. nObama is toast.

4 posted on 09/09/2008 7:21:57 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (OBAMA: He was a flop before he became a flipper.)
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To: NormsRevenge; pissant; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Kuksool; Norman Bates; LdSentinal; ...

The choice of Sarah Palin for VP has turned out to be not only a wise choice, but a stroke of genius. Not only has McCain managed to rally the reulctant conservative base to his side, but his choice has caused the DemocRAT Party and its MSM allies to show their ugly true nature to the American people in a way they never have before. The attacks on Sarah Palin are backfiring in all directions.

As I said in a previous posting, I think the tide has turned. We could actually win this thing!


5 posted on 09/09/2008 7:22:21 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (If Islam conquers the world, the Earth will be at peace because the human race will be killed off.)
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To: mathprof

Lots of undecideds in MI and WI - they’ve got to be breaking for McCain ...


6 posted on 09/09/2008 7:22:30 PM PDT by 11th_VA (The smart liberals are worried, the dumb ones think they've already won ...)
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To: mathprof

They are trying to calm the N0bamamaniacs. They don’t want them to suicide out before Nov 4th.


7 posted on 09/09/2008 7:22:41 PM PDT by YdontUleaveLibs (Reason is out to lunch. How may I help you?)
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To: mathprof

Now subtract the “Bradly factor” numbers from the chosen ones side and we have a McCain landslide.


8 posted on 09/09/2008 7:23:33 PM PDT by southernerwithanattitude ({new and improved redneck})
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To: mathprof

Big Red, Communist victory ?


9 posted on 09/09/2008 7:24:25 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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To: mathprof
The TNR is engaging in wishful thinking... I think the stats in OK and NC are indicative of a trend. McCain will lock up Red States and the Purple States will be up for grabs. Its not the playing field Obama wants because he has to play defense knowing his rival can go out and pluck the hanging fruits.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

10 posted on 09/09/2008 7:24:37 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Yep, just a bit of wishful thinking there. North Dakota? lol


11 posted on 09/09/2008 7:26:36 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (Palin 2008 (oh yeah, and McCain too))
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To: mathprof

When does a bounce become a surge?


12 posted on 09/09/2008 7:28:21 PM PDT by Tarpon (Three things matter when selecting a President - character, character and character.)
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To: Tarpon
It already is a surge.... its not your traditional bounce. It reminds me of how G.H.W Bush overcame a 15 point Dukakis lead to take a lead he kept through the election. If this is such a bounce, the MSM wouldn't be so dismissive of the polls now.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

13 posted on 09/09/2008 7:31:35 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Tarpon

In another week or so!!


14 posted on 09/09/2008 7:32:36 PM PDT by Maine Mariner
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To: mathprof
as some of the red states come off the map

Delusional.

15 posted on 09/09/2008 7:34:37 PM PDT by itsthejourney (Sarah-cuda IS the right reason)
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To: Tarpon
When does a bounce become a surge?

Support the surge...Iraq/McCain/Palin

16 posted on 09/09/2008 7:35:08 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: mathprof
Obama, however, retains a lead in the electoral college projection, as the Kerry + NM + IA + CO combination remains intact, however tenuously.

Colorado and Nevada concern me the most. If McCain takes both of those, we should win.

17 posted on 09/09/2008 7:36:14 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: Clintonfatigued

(As I said in a previous posting, I think the tide has turned. We could actually win this thing!)

Could you imagine having such a pick when your base HATED you? And then she actually said yes? I HATE McCain over the immigration shiit. I will hold his nuts to the fire. NO AMNESTY. I will vote for him, but...........do you think he will listen to us conservatives when in office? HELL NO! Amnesty will be bill #1.


18 posted on 09/09/2008 7:36:38 PM PDT by mirkwood (Palin has my vote!)
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To: Maine Mariner

I would say the surge starts Friday ... If the trend continues.


19 posted on 09/09/2008 7:37:02 PM PDT by Tarpon (Three things matter when selecting a President - character, character and character.)
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To: goldstategop

I would not count OK as a trend. Last election Oklahoma went dem was (I believe) 1964 LBJ. Dems don’t get much play on the national level here!


20 posted on 09/09/2008 7:43:58 PM PDT by Don Carlos (No8Do)
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