Posted on 09/08/2008 7:29:34 PM PDT by GOPGuide
Democrat Barack Obama's once double-digit lead in Washington state is no more, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle and KATU-TV Portland Oregon. In an election today, 09/08/08, eight weeks till votes are counted, it's Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago (before both candidates had named their running mates), Obama is down 2 points; McCain is up 1. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, Obama is down 6; McCain is up 6. Obama led by 17 points in June, led by 16 points in July, led 8 points in August, leads 4 points today. Among voters with no college education, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama led by 15 points in July, now trails by 8, a 23-point erosion. Among voters who earn less than $50K a year, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama's once 26-point lead among the lower-income group is now 5 points, a 21-point erosion. Among voters older than McCain, Obama had led by 24 points in July, now trails by 1, a 25-point erosion. McCain always has run well among Conservatives, but his advantage among Conservatives has grown from 4:1 in May to 11:1 today. In Eastern Washington state, Obama led 5:4 in June, but McCain leads 2:1 today.
Among women, McCain is up 9 points from June, Obama is down 11 points from June. McCain had been gaining ground among female voters before he picked Sarah Palin. That continues. Among men, Obama leads by 4 today, a 5-point shift toward Obama from last month, when McCain led by 1. This is one of the few bright spots in today's poll data for the Democrats.
Not confirmed yet but I’ve been told to keep that date available for a trip to Spokane. Can’t say anymore than that right now...stay tuned.
If Washington State is in play the Democrats are facing a blowout.
McCain is going to win Fl. with no problem. CO may be a tougher nut,but I am confident we will win it.
People just don't trust him or like him.
Must have beem alot of Democrat ‘men’ they polled.
I can see that. I think the first four are really in play:
Wisconsin 0.38% New Hampshire 1.37 Pennsylvania 2.50 Michigan 3.42 Minnesota 3.48 Oregon 4.16
Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico are in trouble, though.
The Landslide map is more realistic. I don’t see either Co. or Penn. going to Obama. I think we will take CT because of Liberman’s support there.
He is going to take those States as well as Penn. which we only lost in 2004 by 1% and that was due to Kerry pretending to be pro-gun and having a military background.
Neither of those will be true today and military people and gun owners are going to vote for McCain.
I think we will take 3 out of 4.
We will probably lose Iowa.
Please God, let even one Pacific state come to its senses.
I need some encouraging news...
more people live west of the Cascades, and they are more leftist....
we east siders for the most part swing republican probably 55% or more....
McCain needs to pull in 40% or so on the west side, and pull in 60% here on the east side....he can win this state.....
the Gregoire "election" was fraudulent...and IMO so was the Cantwell Senate race a few years ago....
also, here in the Spokane area, we have no bumper stickers or buttons or signs....all gone....
here is the email addy for requesting Sarah to come to the Spokane area..... wyssj@gebbers.farms.com...at least I hope so.....that's where I sent my request...
yes...I heard today it was the 24th....a fundraiser...no details on how much or where .....
who are you that you need to keep that date available?.....I live in this area and need to start PLANNING....lol
Good point but it makes me think the entire sample is flawed.
If McCain carries OR and WA, he would probably be extremely competitive in CA (IIRC, President Bush actually did better in CA than in WA in 2004) and, more to the point, McCain would be on the cusp of 400 electoral votes. If he carries OR and WA, there’s no way that he doesn’t carry NV, CO or probably NM, and it would be hard to believe that he wouldn’t also carry WI, MN, IA, NJ, NH, PA, OH, MI, FL and VA.
That being said, I think the demographics of OR and WA give Obama the advantage, but if Obama has to campaign there it will make it even more difficult for him to carry Rust Belt states that are slipping away from him (or the Upper Midwest states of WI, MN and IA that combined to give President Bush 49%, for that matter).
Yep. McCain could easily win PA. PA is completely polarized. Philly/Pittsburgh/Scranton go Dem, and the rest of the state goes GOP. Obama is not going to pick up the rural parts of the state. But my relatives around Philly--white ethnic Union Democrats--can't stand him. Hillary was right in the primary--Obama can't pull Union Democrats. Voting along racial lines is a fact in the Northeast urban areas--we see it typically in mayoral elections. This election has that very same dynamic.
If McCain siphons off enough Union Democrats in Philly and Pittsburgh, Obama is done for.
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