Replies

I think your analysis is right. I think scenario two is more likely based upon where the campaign is today, and where it will be after the debates. So many factors to consider. One thread today says tyhat 25% of hillary voters are going to vote for McCain. Probably won't happen. By the polling stats for Rass or Zogby and Gallup are going to be off. Because I believe that 10% of Hillary voters will either vote for McCain or not vote at all. And the swing of millions of voters from blue to red will mean that traditionally blue state like PA and MI, WI. WA, HI are going to McCain.

And the swing of millions of voters from blue to red will mean that traditionally blue state like PA and MI, WI. WA, HI are going to McCain.

Yep. McCain could easily win PA. PA is completely polarized. Philly/Pittsburgh/Scranton go Dem, and the rest of the state goes GOP. Obama is not going to pick up the rural parts of the state. But my relatives around Philly--white ethnic Union Democrats--can't stand him. Hillary was right in the primary--Obama can't pull Union Democrats. Voting along racial lines is a fact in the Northeast urban areas--we see it typically in mayoral elections. This election has that very same dynamic.

If McCain siphons off enough Union Democrats in Philly and Pittsburgh, Obama is done for.