Posted on 09/08/2008 7:29:34 PM PDT by GOPGuide
Democrat Barack Obama's once double-digit lead in Washington state is no more, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle and KATU-TV Portland Oregon. In an election today, 09/08/08, eight weeks till votes are counted, it's Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago (before both candidates had named their running mates), Obama is down 2 points; McCain is up 1. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, Obama is down 6; McCain is up 6. Obama led by 17 points in June, led by 16 points in July, led 8 points in August, leads 4 points today. Among voters with no college education, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama led by 15 points in July, now trails by 8, a 23-point erosion. Among voters who earn less than $50K a year, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama's once 26-point lead among the lower-income group is now 5 points, a 21-point erosion. Among voters older than McCain, Obama had led by 24 points in July, now trails by 1, a 25-point erosion. McCain always has run well among Conservatives, but his advantage among Conservatives has grown from 4:1 in May to 11:1 today. In Eastern Washington state, Obama led 5:4 in June, but McCain leads 2:1 today.
Among women, McCain is up 9 points from June, Obama is down 11 points from June. McCain had been gaining ground among female voters before he picked Sarah Palin. That continues. Among men, Obama leads by 4 today, a 5-point shift toward Obama from last month, when McCain led by 1. This is one of the few bright spots in today's poll data for the Democrats.
Washington State Women Move to Republican Rossi ... Because of Palin? Or, Unrelated to Palin? The women of Washington state are moving to Republican John McCain in the race for president and moving to Republican Dino Rossi in the race for Governor, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland Oregon. It is difficult to isolate to what extent this has to do with McCain picking Sarah Palin, a woman, to be his running mate. For the 6th time in 6 tracking polls, the rematch contest between Rossi and incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire is inside of the SurveyUSA poll's margin of sampling error. But, for the 1st time in 6 times, Rossi is nominally ahead, 48% to 47%. 48% is the highest Rossi has polled in 6 surveys. 47% is the lowest Gregoire has polled in 6 surveys. Among women, female Democrat Gregoire had led by 24 points in May, 60% to 36%. Today, the candidates are tied. About two-thirds of the gains that Rossi has made among women since May occurred before Sarah Palin became the new face of the Republican party. Since Palin was named, Rossi is up 3 points among women, Gregoire is down 7. There is offsetting but slightly less dramatic movement among men, where Rossi had led by 20 points in May, but leads by 2 points today. Voters without a college degree are shifting Republican, both in the contest for President and in the contest for Governor. Rossi and Gregoire were tied among the lesser educated in April, May, June and July ... but today, Rossi leads by 12 points. In Eastern WA, where Rossi has led sometimes by a little, he now leads by a lot, 31 points.
Gregoire was elected to her first term in 2004, when multiple recounts were needed to determine the winner. On the third recount, Gregoire was determined to have received 129 more votes than Rossi. Gregoire succeeded Democrat Gary Locke. The state has not had a Republican governor in 23 years, since John D. Spellman left office in 1985.
Then there was this...http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/4754
This is the beginning of the end for the Obama campaign.
This is the first major trickle down in state polls and it is devastating. Oregon and Washington should not be close. These are Kerry states.
What will ensue this week is a panic within the Obama campaign about what states to focus on in stemming the electoral breach. But there will be no clear point of action. By Friday, McCain could find himself past a 25 electoral vote advantage in state polling.
“I sure hope that McCain minimizes his time campaigning on the Left coast. By today’s numbers, McCain doesn’t have a solid footing in FL and CO, and without both, would need a bit of a Electoral miracle to pull out the election.”
Florida is in the bag because Cubans will NEVER vote for a black man. Rasmussen has Ohio in the bag for McCain
Colorado is a whole heck of a lot more conservative than Washington. If Washington state is close and we are winning Florida and Ohio, I don’t see how we possibly lose Colorado.
If there’s only four points between the two in the Seattle to Portland corridor, the Obamessiah is in big, big trouble. That point spread puts this race within a statistical dead heat in Oregon and Washington...
Pingaling!
putting safe states back in play makes them spend their resources in ways that they would rather not.
Obama has lost 13 pts in liberal Washington State since June?
That’s gotta smart.
I said earlier this week that OR and/or WA could be picked off by McCain if he plays his hand right.
Given this information, perhaps McCain should go on the air for a few days in Washington to see what happens. If McCain wins Washington, it will be part of a national landslide. Right now, I just don’t see it happening, but it could be beginning to break that way.
WOW! The GREEK god is bombing....PRAY, PRAY AND DON’T STOP till the Lord Favors Mc/PAL!!
“Obama has lost 13 pts in liberal Washington State since June?
That’s gotta smart.
I said earlier this week that OR and/or WA could be picked off by McCain if he plays his hand right.”
These numbers are incredible considering OR and WA are Democrat states in a Dem year.
Maybe the Pelosi Congress is the reason?
Actually, McCain would do himself some good to campaign in the Spokane area and in rural Oregon. Maybe a day or two in the more GOP-leaning Portland and Seattle suburbs.
“Right now, I just don’t see it happening, but it could be beginning to break that way.”
Wait a week to see the state polls because changes in the national polls usually take a few days to filter down to the states.
I can only hope! Dino got my vote and my hubbys vote last time, and will this time again. Hard to be a conservative in the land of liberals...interesting times ahead, that’s for dang sure...go SARAHCUDA!
If McCain/Palin could win Washington it would be a Fantastic Victory. Of course, there are a lot of connections between Washington and Alaska, and with Palin on the ticket she might be helping more there because of those connections.
Gregoire tied herself to Obama in her August primary campaign brochure. Four different pictures of Obama solo and a one-page and a two-page shot of her arm-in-arm with Obama. I don’t think he will be featured in whatever mailing she puts out for the general election, but I think she’s going down with him.
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