McCain will win them all.
Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Here’s my take on Florida. McCain has only spent on national advertising while Obama has spent more than $6 million in local TV adds. I have faith in the state GOP after they turned out over a million more votes for Bush in 2004 than in 2000 (3,964,522 to 2,912,790). They also showed their strength in Charlie Crist’s victory in the 2006 governor’s race. This was a bad year for the GOP and Crist still won by over 330,000 votes. Crist received just under 2.5 million votes. Not quite Bush’s 380,000 vote margin from 2004 but still very solid nonetheless. Crist won Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando and he still got 45% in Miami. It’s tailor-made for McCain in many ways. Seniors, Cubans, and the large military population in the panhandle are the back-bone of McCain’s coalition and those groups show up on Election Day.
No doubt about it.
Lowering expectation is part of politics.
Right - that’s not good news. He’s consistently had solid leads there all along. Tied is losing ground.
Allowing for this, the results of these polls are:
Ohio
McCain 53% to 56%
Obama 39% to 42%
Virginia
McCain 51% to 54%
Obama 42% to 45%
Florida
McCain 50% to 53%
Obama 43% to 46%
Colorado
Obama 44% to 47%
McCain 48% to 51%
Pennsylvania
Obama 42% to 45%
McCain 47% to 50%
Looks a little different this w2ay, doesn't it?
Wow, Ohio shows McCain pulling ahead by a 51% to 44% margin. If that lead gets any bigger, it will be out of Obama’s reach.
Thanks!
She was also off. WAY off... Her ‘06 picks were dreadful... I constantly challenged her, she was way too optimistic
“How can a Gov change the law allowing felons to vote?”
It was part of the demos agenda and he went along with it.
Losing Florida and Colorado would force McCain to win both PA and MI or it’s over.
You’ll be pleasantly surprised to hear that McCain is running almost even with Obama in Michigan.
I should add, she was a wonderful conversation, but her intense optimism led to her flawed predictions...
One quick slightly off topic question, does anyone know a website that has videos of both campaigns stump speeches and rallies, that is updated daily.
Thanks again.
Well after the GOP pulling the rabbit out of the hat 3 consecutive times I don’t fault anyone for thinking we could pull it off again. No polls predicted the big wins we had in 2002, and the scandals in 2006 overshadowed much larger than could’ve been guessed.
Losing PA and MI would force Obama to win FL and CO or it’s over.
Thanks for the vote of optimism.
McCain will win them all.
Colorado is toss-up but I don’t think it’s for Obama. Florida will be 6-8 for McCain. I’m waiting for NV, here I see some problems.
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