Posted on 09/07/2008 8:37:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ike is the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2008 hurricane season to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast states.
Reports from Turks & Caicos Islands describe 80 per cent of homes damaged or destroyed. On Sunday, Hurricane Ike's position just north of Hispanola was hampering relief efforts for devastation incurred by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. The death toll in Haiti from Gustav reached 200 people.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist held a press conference Sunday morning shortly after a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida Keys.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data:
Florida & Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Western Gulf of Mexico
West Caribbean
South FL Radar Loop
FL Keys Radar Loop
Cuba Radar Warning: site gets overloaded
FL Long Range Radar Image
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Additional Resources:
Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site--scroll down for Ike
KeyNews.com Key West News
Miami Herald
NOLA.com
KPLC-tv Lake Charles News
WEAR-tv Pensacola FL
TBO.com Tampa Bay Online
KHOU Houston
WKRG-tv Mobile-Pensacola
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
If I read that right, it looks like the have it as a category 1 almost all the way to Austin!?
susie
Due to the size the winds may not increase as fast, but it could be a monster. I am a bit concerned with some of what the NHC says in their discussion.....this could get strong.
I’ll be posting a new thread later today. The Admin Mods have been outstanding about moving the threads to Breaking News and/or Front Page News when a storm threat to the U.S. coast is imminent.
There is a reason hurricanes used to be named solely after women.
Remember...if you paint lipstick on a hurricane, it is still a hurricane.
(Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog from last night)
A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.
Then this morning's update...
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds. At 11 am EDT, NHC called for these odds of getting hurricane force winds at various Texas cities:
Brownsville: 9%
Corpus Christi: 17%
Port O'Connor: 24%
Freeport: 23%
Galveston: 20%
Houston: 13%
As you can see, Port O'Connor is considered the most likely city in Texas to receive hurricane force winds. I believe the percentages for the cities above except Brownsville are too low, and should be bumped up by 5-10%.
There were some unreliable model runs last night, with concern that EOMs would be making decisions based on them. As well, the storm has slowed, prolonging the 36 hour window for storm watches. I expect that decisions will begin happening this afternoon with watches being issued.
It sure got hairy. So glad you and
rodguy are ok. Pretty formidable bullet
dodged, praise God. Cleanup is not a big
headache when the stress of the anticipation
and the worst has passed and there’s been no
huge loss or damage. Now .. take it a little
easy ... ;)
| Remember...if you paint lipstick on a hurricane, it is still a hurricane.
|
He notes that high tide along the Texas coast is Saturday morning at about 2am local time. Tidal range between low and high tide is about two feet.
True but if you put lipstick on a liberal muslim running for President what do you have?
You are bad! :o)
Yea.. that does NOT sound good.. but, I agree with what he’s saying.
Carla flat wiped out the city of Freeport. In 1961, it was the largest city in Brazoria County.. it really has never recovered.
If Ike makes that northward jog in time to come ashore around Matagorda... Houston is in for big big trouble.
LOL ..
Satellite view on Weather Channel ..
looked like this guy was elongating,
north/south .. strange. Maybe it was
a distortion.
They always turn north, except then they don't.
If Ike doesn’t trend west as expected, all hell is going to break lose in Galveston/Harris county.
.
Galveston has a news conference planned for noon today. Houston is preparing to assist Brazoria and Galveston counties but has no plans other than that for now.
Welcome to Texas
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