Posted on 09/07/2008 8:37:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Wunderground’s computer models.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html
Look at this:
Only two days ago, NHC had this dead center into the FL Everglades! (the 00Z 9/05 NHC official track)
Sorry - I don't see that they deserve the kudos you give them. They are doing good at predicting the next 1-2 days track, but that is as well as they've done with Ike.
Well, just the day before yesterday, they had Miami taking a direct hit from Ike as a category 4; now Miami is apparently in the clear, while Cuba and then the Gulf coast are looking to be hit. For about 5 days now, every forecast update has moved the track a little to the right. It's almost as if there has been a man out there slowly swinging a rifle across a crowd who is just waiting to see at whom he will take final aim.
“On the previous thread someone said that the track is the same as the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, the last one to run the length of Cuba.”
Scary thought, LCS. How are you doing, btw?
Oh, c’mon, NN - hurricane season gives you a solid reason to pull all-nighters!
:o)
As always, thanks for starting/updating threads like these. Watching and praying here ....
Molly in California
Thanks.
I’m glad it’s not headed for N.O. any more, but now there are a ton of wells and refineries in its path.
Gee, I sure hope the ISLAMIC TERRORISTS we are holding in Gitmo are alright! (/sarcasm)
Hand the filthy SOB's some soap on a rope and a washrag when it passes through .....
Gee, I sure hope the ISLAMIC TERRORISTS we are holding in Gitmo are alright! (/sarcasm)
Hand the filthy SOB's some soap on a rope and a washrag when it passes through .....
Sorry about that double post. I’m getting “Webserver cannot display page” errors and thought it didn’t post the first time.
Not only is Houston in play, the models have had nearly every spot from North Carolina down to FL across to S.Texas in play - I said yesterday I wouldn’t be surprised to see this eventually hit Guatemala, even. That continues to seem exceedingly unlikely, but with each passing day becomes more plausible.
Until the turn north actually becomes clear, Ike reminds me of Wayne Gretzky handling the puck crossing in front of the net all alone - when is he going to let fly with his shot? There’s no telling. Until the shot comes, it is going to be tough to call this sucker.
Historically, none of the Sep. tracks have been even similar to Ike. Not a one of those plotted now “within 500mi of this position” have tracked WSW as this has, and only one has ever tracked W.
I’ve got a feeling (no knowledge, prescience, etc.) that this sucker is going to break north hard and into AL/FL panhandle. Only CLP5 has it doing that, though. In fact none of the other models really have it breaking sharply north ever, but rather drive it NW.
That midlevel ridge is holding up much longer than they were predicting it to hold up four days ago, though, and so far there’s no real physical evidence that it won’t continue to hold until Ike goes all the way west. Until Ike overcomes that, this is still like that hockey player.
Everything from the FL Panhandle to the TX Central Gulf Coast is still in that cone of uncertainty. I wouldn’t write off any area in the GOM yet.
Only two months and three weeks left.
NOLA is not out of the sights of Ike. Far too early to have any such thoughts.
NOLA is very much in play!
The NHC’s official “centerline” of their “uncertainty cone” is the gray line in that graphic of post#42. Look at the Sep.5,00Zulu gray track. Compare these all to the black “Actual” track. The models do OK for a day or two, but then there’s no telling. The GFDL as been doing best with Ike, apparently it has respected this ridge the most, but the real question now is when that respect will be overdone.
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