ZOGBY: MCCAIN UP 4%

Zogby ^ | 6/7/2008 | Zogby

[libh8er]

UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.

Data from this poll is available here The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

The Ticket Horserace

9-5/6

8-29/30

McCain-Palin

49.7%

47.1%

Obama-Biden

45.9%

44.6%

Others/Not sure

4.4%

8.3%

In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%.

One-on-One Horserace

9-5/6

McCain

48.8%

Obama

45.7%

Others/Not sure

5.5%

In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support.

The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."

McCain's favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.

Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.

Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.

Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her - but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her - another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.

-Z-

Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles, and continues to perfect its telephone and interactive methodologies using its own live operator, in-house call center in Upstate New York, and its own secure servers for its online polling projects.

In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby's telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18th was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry - as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.

[rrrod]

Good point about the 2006 elelctions. But one thing is crystal clear...the conservative base has not changed. it was the spineless RNC and elected Republicans that dropped to their knees.

Now the base sees Palin and getting excited again. The conservative base has been told by Republican guvs and Republican senators to get over Reagan.

Palin may not be Reagan but she sure is damn close! And in the mean time the conduct of the Monica Lewensky wannabees int he Senate and in Guv mansions is coing under closer scutinty.

Watch how most R senators and govs are reacting.

[jonrick46]

Uuuuuugh! These KOSers ring the bell for the arrogance test. Of course, their feelings of superiority are a result of narcissist derangement syndrome. There is an element of paranoia driving this syndrome. It is the fear of failure. I think there is an element of reality to this fear of failure: The McCain-Palin element.

[tallyhoe]

Some people make up they’re mind when they enter the voting booth. I think only die-hard democrats and the loony left will vote for tweddle dee and tweedle dummy.

[rvoitier]

TheWasteLand,

What's, 'The Bradley Effect'?

Thanks

[jerry557]

Bradley effect is lying to a pollster based on race...

You say to a pollster that you are voting for a minority candidate in order to ward off any perception of racism...
But when you actually go and vote (and know the vote is anonymous) you vote your true feelings and vote against the minority candidate.

Some studies show it isnt a major phenomenon but has been found to be statistically significant especially in racially-sensitive locations.

[Neville72]

The Bradley Effect was named after Mayor Tom Bradley who was leading by 5-8% in all the polls in the CA governor’s election but narrowly lost on election day to George Dukmejian(sp).

People will tell pollsters they support the minority candidate because they fear being labeled a racist but once in the privacy of the voting booth vote otherwise.

It’s also been called the “Wilder Effect” after VA governor Doug Wilder who led by 9 or 10% in pre-election polls but eeked a victory by a few thousand votes.

[Dianna]

Just wanted to add, the Bradley Effect showed up a few times in the dem primaries. Polls would show Obama ahead and he’d end up losing.

[AmericaUnited]

The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama.

ALso known as a group as "catty cats".

[Jim Noble]

No one - NO ONE - who has not decided already to vote for Zerobama will vote for him on election day.

It's over.

[BluH2o]

In a Poll with a 10%+ Democrat polling bias, not including BRADLEY EFFECT.

Obama's internal polls are probably even more distressing ... to the extent BO has been left incoherent.

[Peelod]

http://www.wben.com/

With both conventions now over, who are you voting for?
McCain-Palin
 85%
Obama-Biden
 11%
Won’t Vote
 5%
votes: 3504

[nhwingut]

A poll wonk friend of mine explained what to look for in Gallup and Rasmussen. Yesterday’s (Sat) polls that came out were for Wed-Fri rolling average. Wed’s numbers did not include Palin’s speech or McCain. And Thu did not include McCain’s. So you only had 1/3 of respondents (Friday’s) weighing w/ McCain and Palin in memory.

Once those are dropped from rolling avg we should see McCain ahead. Today’s daily track will include all respondents after Palin’s speech and Monday’s track (Fri-Sun) will include both McCain’s and Palin’s.

Tueday looks to be the day for true nummbers.

If McCain/Palin are up in both Rasmussen and Gallup on Tuesday (with Wilder/Bradley factor not included) he’s toast. He needs to be up 15 to withstand the Reverend Wright bombs you know the 527’s will be launching come October.

[Anima Mundi]

Libs delusional:
They think Clinton is black but Clarence Thomas is not
They think Michele Obama is in the style of Jackie O (but have not seen any similarity of Cindy McCain to Lady Di)
They think Barack Obama is good looking
and so on and so on and so on..yes, they are definitely
that delusional

[ODDITHER]

Yes and another 25% call themselves “Progress” because the media villifies Conservatives but when asked specific questions they are conservatives.

[InABunkerUnderSF]

As I recall in 2000 Zogby had Bush close in CA. Bush spent a lot of time here and neglected other places - like Florida.

Bush ended up loosing California by 6 or 7 percentage points. Zogby’s polling came very close to costing GWB the election.

[johnny7]

I’d guess this KOS’r is actually a EUROLIB, rather than US resident, though.

One of those numerous, Obama donors from the Gaza Strip...

[Raycpa]

I believe there will be a later bounce for Palin due to Sunday worship. Many will be hearing from their friends and wanting to confirm their feelings about Palin before settling in with a choice. It will be the first time Christians have to talk to one another about her.

[Friendofgeorge]

Zogby claims to be most accurate over last 3 presidential elections? What he is famous for is around 7 pm of the election, he posts/adjusts his last poll results, making him appear to be very accurate.

Having said that, I am sure that we are up by 4 points atleast right now, and because of my Sarah!!!

Just keep in mind that Zogby is a fellow Muslim with Hussein, and when push comes to shove around Oct 31 to nov 4 he will be there carrying Obama`s water.

[rep-always]

I am in agreement with you in prayer. We must ask the Lord for favor. May the Holy Spirit bless this country and guide it to a McCain/Palin victory. Amen.

[Sooth2222]

Bradley effect is lying to a pollster based on race...

What the MSM has not considered is that in addition to the "Bradley Effect", there is probably going to be a "Palin Effect" -- liberal Democrat women who lie to pollsters but will vote for Palin because she is a woman.

I think this race is now Palin/Obama.