Scott and another pollster were on with Bill O. last night and said to not expect to see real convention results until Wednesday of next week.
On Fox last night, Rasmussen said you won’t see the accurate RNC “bounce” numbers until Monday at the earliest. He said Tuesday or Wednesday may be more accurate.
Overestimating the sincerity of the pollsters is more likely.
I’m not worried about it. Even we’re looking at the same number on Monday or Tuesday, its still just a 1-3% lead for Obama.
But lets not forget that we were all laughing about the non-bounce for the Dems this time a week ago. Then, early in the week, it started to show in the polls. I think it’ll be the same here. Give it a few more days.
We know they got a bounce its just that the pollsters do not want to show it.
For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated
The Obama bounce was late.
Interesting. The polls released next Thursday and Friday should tell us something.
I dont even bother keeping track of these polls. They mean nothing at this point.
You will know about Tuesday or Wednesday. Saw Rasmussen on Fox this morning and that is what he said.
In order for a poll to be accurate, they need to predict many factors. The two main factors are (1) voter preference and (2) turnout among the voter segments they query. No poll has a monopoly on the turnout methodology, but Rasmussen’s seems to be the most valid.
I think Obama’s ratings were underestimated all during the summer because of how fired up the democrats were and how demoralized the republicans were. But now the Republicans are fired up and prepared to turn out in large numbers. So it’s up to the pollsters to try to accurately capture those feelings.
My guess is that when all of the data shakes out, McCain is probably up by about 4 or 5 points.
I’d also like to make a prediction that the Republicans come close to, or succeed in, taking back the house. 60 days of campaigning against a do-nothing congress should have some positive results. Plus once congress comes back in session we have the fireworks regarding the oil issue starting to play out. And maybe even a government shutdown.
Break out the popcorn.
Monday the polls will reflect the convention results ,,,, remember the “SURGE” ,,,,,,, it’s working , just ask Obama .
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Obama was ahead by six points in Rasmussen's poll just a couple of days ago and now it's a 1-2% lead.
Sarah is the great equalizer. McCain’s choice of her insures that he has at least a 50-50 shot of beating Obama...instead of losing for sure by picking a weaker candidate.
This election will probably be as close a 2004. It could go either way and will not be a rout for either side. The MSM will see to that.
I, however, would be very happy to eat my words on Nov 5.
Rasmussen said last night that the numbers that would reflex the convention would be on Monday, maybe even later, Obama’s bump did not come until a couple days after the convention.
Part of the bounce is the loss in the number that Obama had. He was up by 7 in some polls and 4 to 6 in others. Rasmussen said on O’Reilly last night it would be about Tuesday before we would see if the convention had a positive bounce.
Hehe. Pollsters are now going to have to reduce their polling numbers of likely to vote Republicans to about 10% instead of 26% to get the “results” they want to advertise.
The Obama convention bounce took a week to appear.
The Palin bounce will be the same.