The Unfortunate Palin Gamble

GOPublius.com ^ | August 29, 2008 | GOPublius.com

[americanophile]

Don’t kid yourself…John McCain just put all his chips on the table and rolled the dice.

Over the past many months, McCain’s team had skillfully underscored the natural impressions of Americans – that Barak Obama was the lightweight in the race; the candidate of risk. Now, with a single stroke McCain has undercut his most effective argument. He has weakened his case for wisdom and experience, and elevated a one-term governor of a small-population state based on her gender.

McCain had plenty of safe choices. Choices that would have bolstered Americans’ inherent understanding of McCain’s competency and ability; choices that would have underscored the longstanding notion that whatever gimmick the Democrats try, the Republican Party remains the serious one.

With the electorate evenly split, McCain’s first job was to pick a competent running mate that would not undermine his standing, and would reassure voters that should something happen to the oldest man ever to be nominated for president, a competent, experienced leader, ready to serve as commander-in-chief in a time of war, was waiting in the wings.

The former Miss Congeniality, and hockey mom from “the last frontier” is a bizarre choice.

McCain’s pick today has all the hallmarks of a political gimmick and a hail-Mary pass. While it is likely to excite some conservatives, his choice will refocus the entire campaign away from Obama’s status as a political neophyte and will reshuffle the risk calculus in the favor of the increasingly familiar, and always-eloquent Obama. With Biden on the ticket, Obama has lessened the sense that he poses a serious danger to the electorate. McCain’s selection by contrast is likely to shake voters and cast uncertainty on the wisdom and safety of a McCain presidency.

With competent and proven individuals waiting in the wings such as Governor Mitt Romney, the selection of Sarah Palin is a most unfortunate choice.

John McCain may have just lost the 2008 election…cue the hurricane.

[workerbee]

With Biden on the ticket, Obama has lessened the sense that he poses a serious danger to the electorate.

I don't think so. Biden brings no one to the Dem ticket that wasn't already there. Whatever hope-n-change momentum Barry had, he firmly tamped down with his choice of a Washington perennial, a known plagarizer, a New England elitist that no one beyond his own safe constiuency cares about (proven by his abyssmal showing in his former prez race). Besides, the VP choice is not the person people look to for the "security" angle; that has to come from the front runner.

Palin hits every demographic. You can't have watched her acceptance speech and not felt that somewhere along the line, you related to her. Female? Check (obviously). Working mom? Check. Oil/energy experience? Check. Executive experience? Check. Pro-gun? Check. Family values? Check. Kid in the military? Check. Inclusive/bipartisan style? Check. The list goes on and on, all wrapped in a poised, attractive, non-shrill/anti-Hitlery package.

I guarantee you this year's VP debate ratings will be through the roof, and if today's speech was any indication, she's going to leave Abortion Joe looking like the condescending, same-old-lefty-b.s., Washington fat cat that he is.

[edzo4]

A small population State? should he have picked someone from a much larger state like say Delaware?

Alaska Population Ranked 47th in the US
- Total 683,478 (2007 est.)

Delaware Population Ranked 45th in the US
- Total 864,764 (2007 est.)

[Psycho_Bunny]

Anyone who doesn’t see this choice as being a boon for McCain, shouldn’t describe themselves as politically astute.

[truthguy]

I can't improve upon this article. Although Palin may be a great person, the general thrust of this article is right on. The biggest problem conservatives have (and I am a paleo conservative) is that they believe they are a majority. They are delusional. They think this gimmick of an unknown woman will bring some women over to the Republican side. Conservatives, listen to me, YOU ARE NOT THE MAJORITY. You keep losing and will keep losing. Demographics are not in your favor. Every year that goes by, your numbers decline. You will feel good for a while about this choice, even self righteous but when reality hits, it will hit like a ton of bricks. You conservatives are responsible for giving us McCain because you couldn't come up with a credible candidate who could unite the party and the vote in the primaries was split. This let McCain slip through. Romney would have been OK but too many votes were bled off with worthless people like Huckabee. Now the disaster awaits-probably. The worst problem is that when/if it happens, the conservatives won't recognize that it was self inflicted and they dealt the blow. Republicans/Conservatives are are indeed the STUPID PARTY.

[Fabozz]

That's really what you think?

The one issue this year in which Republicans are both on the same side as the public and are perceived to be on the same side as the public is "drill here, drill now"... so the governor of the state with the most oil wouldn't have even been considered?

The issues that did the most damage to Republicans in 2006 were corruption and pork... so an ethics crusader and budget hawk wouldn't have even been considered?

The cornerstone of Obama's attacks against McCain is that he's "more of the same".... so someone who became governor by challenging and defeating the Republican incumbent wouldn't have even been considered?

If that's really what you think, that he wouldn't have even considered a man with Palin's credentials, then you must think McCain is a complete idiot. That's harsh. I hate the man myself, but even I think he's shrewd.

[writmeister]

I liked Romney. I even was planning to vote for him in the Texas primary had he not withdrawn.

That said, had Romney been chosen, he would have come with his own set of unfortunance. I cannot tell you how many people told me that they could not vote for him because he was a Mormon. While I consider that ridiculous, I think there are numerous Evangelicals who would have those same isues with Romney.

Further, a Romney selection would have raised the specter of two rich guys with multiple houses. I think the hullabaloo over McCain's houses hurt Romney's chances.

[null and void]

If I may?

"Question now is if Obama can turn it into a full house or senate."

[pabianice]

I hope the Repubs change the first VP debate to a sparring match. Three rounds. Shukokai rules. Adjamei!

[OCCASparky]

No documented record vis-a-vis illegal immigration, but has stated she is for securing the border.

[CharacterCounts]

With the electorate evenly split, McCain’s first job was to pick a competent running mate that would not undermine his standing

McCain just solidified the base... and attracted the women's vote. Would selecting Romney accomplished either of these goals

[Pharmer]

Go ahead Chris Mathews... Hit on this babe!

[RogerD]

Whine, Whine, Whine about an excellent pick! Figured someone would try to rain on the parade because their candidate was not the choice and here it is within a few hours of the nomination. Sitting here shaking head with a huge smile on my face!

I'm not the one you're responding to and I didn't have a first choice for VP, but I'm not quite as enthusiastic as many. Palin seems to be a reasonable choice except that she's a bit young.

Sorry, but she's younger than I am, and I think I'm too young for the presidency, as is Obama. I'll cetainly vote McCain/Palin, but I'd vote McCain/Lucifer over Obama/Binen, since it's better to have Satan as VP than at the top of the ticket. Still, on everything except the life experience and maturity that come with age, Palin seems to be a pretty good choice. I don't like the idea of picking a VP (or in Obama's case the candidate himself) based on their race or gender, but Palin looks like a plausible pick based on merit, and that's good enough for me.

On the Afirmative Action topic: The idea that she's the first GOP woman on the ticket? Not even worth a yawn. The idea that she'll give some Democrats a heart attack? Priceless!

[lilycicero]

You might as well go ahead and vote directly for Obambi. If you want to stop McCain/Palin, why fool around?

I love your point....people who say they will write in a sure loser on a ballot are only adding to their own misery and will be the first ones to complain come Nov 5 if McCain doesn't win. McCain/Palin all the way.

[janipa]

My thoughts exactly!

[N. Theknow]

Just that she now gives McCain the opportunity to "flip" (to the right side) on ANWR drilling.

With every point McCain/Palin rise in the polls, look for even larger decrease in the price of gas.

Zoom ahead to 2016 and President Palin says how nice it is to see gas stations give away dishes and S&H Green Stamps to attract customers.

[Yossarian]

That's me, too. Well, except for the part about being your wife. I just cranked this out to commemorate this pick.

Good going, John. Keep this up - and forsake your Constitution-stomping form of CFR - and I might actually put your real name up there....

[popdonnelly]

GOPublius must be one of those lifelong Republicans who is voting for Obama ;>)

[Atlas Sneezed]

The picture of he with the AR-15/M4 appears to be a simulator, with an optical element in the muzzle, and a cable extending down.

[Swiss]

I was a Mitt fan and would of liked him to be selected but so far I think this is one of the best choices I have ever seen for VP. Grand Slam Home Run!

One thing I am thankful for was that Free Republic wasn’t around in 1980. We would have to be reading that Ronald Reagan wasn’t the best candidate by at least a few posters.

[WayneS]

With, to be fair, one of the smallest POPULATIONS.